Monday brings an eight-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Washington Wizards at Houston Rockets
Even in a game in which James Harden scored 103.5 DraftKings points thanks to 53 real points, 16 rebounds, 17 assists, and nine 3-pointers, many of Harden’s teammates like Trevor Ariza, Montrezl Harrell, and Ryan Anderson managed to exceed salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric). I recently compiled data on daily fantasy NBA player correlations and noticed that starting teammates are often fairly strongly correlated — much more than I anticipated they would be. My hypothesis is that projecting game totals is more important than the potential cannibalization of fantasy points by teammates: When a game pops off for 120-plus points, everyone at the dinner table is fed.
As an example, let’s look at games in which the Rockets have implied Vegas totals of at least 118 points, one shy of today’s total. They’ve had five such games, and pretty much all of the team’s top-seven players have exceeded value and done it consistently in those games:
The feast is abundant.
Of course, saying that all of these guys are strongly correlated and thus solid plays ignores pricing. That’s where Bargain Rating can come in handy: Harden, for example, has an $11,300 FD salary and 99 percent Bargain Rating. He’s currently the No. 2 player across all positions in the Phan Model for FD, where he also owns a massive +7.33 Projected Plus/Minus and 13 Pro Trends. Teammates Harrell, Ariza, Gordon, and Anderson also boast high FD Bargain Ratings, whereas Patrick Beverley, who is currently questionable with a right wrist injury, has an 86 percent DK Bargain Rating. These guys are all in play against a bottom-10 Washington defense that has allowed 106.0 points per 100 possessions.
On the other side of the ball is John Wall, whose value tonight largely depends on the status of Beverley, who owns a +1.30 Defensive Real Plus/Minus on the season — the second-highest mark among all PGs. He’s held opposing PGs to 0.9 DK points below salary-based expectations and murdered the shooting numbers from the 3-point line and mid-range area. Bradley Beal has a better matchup versus Harden, but he’s also dealing with an ankle injury and hasn’t topped 35.3 FD points in five straight games. Marcin Gortat has double-doubled in two straight games and remains a viable cash-game option at $6,600 on FD, where he has a nice +2.02 Opponent Plus/Minus. Wall will move into cash-game territory if Beverley is ruled out.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook owns a poor -1.95 FD Opponent Plus/Minus versus the Milwaukee Bucks, who have a top-10 defense in the league, allowing a stingy 103.9 points per 100 possessions.. However, matchups haven’t mattered for 2016-17 Westbrook: In his 12 games this year with a negative FD Opp Plus/Minus (I’m excluding the game in which was ejected in the first half), Westbrook has posted a +1.58 Plus/Minus and averaged 52.23 fantasy points.
However, usually when we roster a stud in a negative matchup, we do so to get an edge in ownership. That hasn’t been the case: Westbrook has crushed in every conceivable matchup this year, but he’s also been highly owned in them. He’s viable on FD, where he owns a +7.74 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating, but his 31-35 percent projected ownership is high.
Value
Kristaps Porzingis is unlikely to play for the second straight game against the Magic. We have only game with that scenario, and it may not be representative of the usage distribution we’re likely to see today.
Carmelo Anthony rested in the second half of the game, which allowed both Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings to explode for games of 40.5 and 49.5 DK points in 40.7 minutes. That was easily Jennings’ best game of the season — he hadn’t topped 30 minutes in the prior five games — but it wasn’t that far off from Rose’s current minute totals. He’s now played 37-plus minutes in each of his last four games and is projected for 36.8 minutes and a 30.17 usage rate today. He’s very affordable at $6,500 on FD, where he comes with a slate-high +9.20 Projected Plus/Minus and eight Pro Trends. Jennings is a nice tournament target on FD at just 13-16 percent projected ownership.
Leverage Play
Jrue Holiday will likely go overlooked despite playing well lately: He’s dished out at least nine assists in five of his last six games. He also has a nice matchup against the Cavaliers. Kyrie Irving owns a poor -1.85 DRPM on the season — 70th out of 85 eligible PGs — and he has allowed above-average shooting marks at every area on the floor:
Jrue is only $6,500 on DK, where he comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating, and he’s projected for only 13-16 ownership there. With Chris Paul likely out again for the Clippers versus the awful Suns, DFS players will likely flock to Austin Rivers ($4,900) and Raymond Felton ($4,300). Pivot up for a guy with a higher ceiling.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo dropped 70.3 FD points on a 35-9-7 line last game versus the Bulls and now sits second in the NBA with a +7.17 Real Plus/Minus. That probably overstates Giannis’ season a little bit, but it’s not far off: He’s currently a top-10 player at only 22 years old. He’s always in play in guaranteed prize pools — he owns a massive 64.6-point FD ceiling today — but Harden is likely the better cash-game option given their two matchups. Giannis is a matchup issue for just about every player in the league, but Thunder stopper Andre Roberson is one of the rare players to have a body that could given Giannis some problems. Roberson is an elite defender — his +1.99 DRPM sits seventh among all SFs — and he’s held opposing players to below-average marks everywhere on the floor:
Value
Devin Booker has disappointed a bit after scorching the NBA in the first half of his rookie campaign, but he’s getting back into form lately:
Over the last nine games, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight contests and averaged a +7.04 Plus/Minus. He’s seen a small +$300 salary increase over that time, and he gets a Clippers team that has defended poorly without Paul and Blake Griffin:
Take a look at those Defensive Rating marks: Woof. For reference, not only are those easily the worst marks in the league, but they all-time bad.
Leverage Play
Rodney Hood is risky because of his recently volatile minute load — he’s been above 30 minutes only once since 12/18 — but he has massive upside if he gets to his 30.3 projection today. He owns the position’s highest Opponent Plus/Minus at +3.0 on FD, where he has a +2.30 Projected Plus/Minus and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. The Jazz are currently 6.5-point favorites on the road versus the Nets, who play at the league’s fastest pace (104.1 possessions per game) and defend at a bottom-three rate, allowing a miserable 109.0 points per 100 possessions. Hood has an elite matchup versus Sean Kilpatrick . . .
. . . and there’s a chance he could see reduced ownership if people are worried about the season debut of Alec Burks.
Small Forward
Stud
Kyrie Irving is currently questionable to play with a sore right hamstring, but LeBron James is a solid option no matter Kyrie’s status. LeBron has been excellent lately: He’s exceeded 46 FD points in six of his last seven games and has averaged a +5.76 Plus/Minus during that time. The Cavs are currently nine-point home favorites implied to score 113.5 points against the Pelicans, who play at an above-average pace on the season. The Pelicans have the 10th-ranked defense, but LeBron is Westbrook-like in that he’s largely unburdened by negative matchups:
He’s currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where his too-cheap $9,900 salary comes with a position-high +6.68 Projected Plus/Minus, 14 Pro Trends, and a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
There aren’t many value plays currently at SF — Ariza is the best cash-game option below the high-priced guys — so let’s get a little risky. Dante Cunningham is projected to play 32.8 minutes and has exceeded 32 in each of his last four games. He’s one of the Pelicans’ best defenders and will get extended run on both LeBron and Kevin Love.
Again, Cunningham is very risky, but he’s only $3,800 FD and projected to be a big part of the rotation. That’s a rare combination. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last six games and needs only 14.54 points to hit value — a mark he’s exceeded in each of his last four games. Cunningham is a true punt play option with 20-plus point upside, and he’s projected for only five to eight percent ownership.
Leverage Play
The Warriors are massive 15-point favorites implied to score 122.75 points against the Nuggets, who rank 27th defensively, allowing a poor 108.9 points per 100 possessions. That spread may seem like a negative for the Warriors’ starters, but that hasn’t actually been the case for Kevin Durant.
Per the NBA Trends tool, in 24 games as a double-digit favorite (which is ridiculous in its own right), Durant has exceeded value 70.8 percent of the time, averaging 46.24 FD points and a +4.95 Plus/Minus. He has a nice +2.09 Opponent Plus/Minus today and should see lower ownership than LeBron, who is $200 cheaper on FD. Durant is currently the No. 2 SF in the Phan Model behind LeBron, and he comes with a +5.50 Projected Plus/Minus and 12 Pro Trends.
Power Forward
Stud
With the NBA Trends tool you can quickly test any theory. Does Anthony Davis ‘get up’ for teams with fellow superstars like LeBron? Let’s take a look.
And let’s dig into the sample:
Brow has a collective -3.16 FD Plus/Minus in his last four games versus the Cavs, but that sample includes a 2014 game in which he left with a first-quarter injury. Overall, he’s been the same stellar Brow versus the Cavs in other games, and he clearly has 60-point upside. He’s a much better value on DK, where his reasonable $10,300 salary comes with a +3.45 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
In three games this season without Cody Zeller, Spencer Hawes and Frank Kaminsky have posted DK Plus/Minus differentials of +9.2 and +7.5. They’ve averaged 26.0 and 29.0 minutes in those contests and have scored 25.6 and 29.0 DK points. Kaminsky is the better option tonight, as he’s projected to play more minutes and post a higher usage rate than Hawes or projected starter Roy Hibbert. Chicago has dropped a bit defensively lately, now allowing a mediocre 104.2 points per 100 possessions on the season, and Kaminsky has a nice +1.85 DK Opponent Plus/Minus. The Models will definitely adjust with news throughout the day, but he’s currently the No. 1 PF in the Phan Model for DK, where his near-minimum $3,600 price tag comes with a +3.75 Projected Plus/Minus and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Kevin Love has posted three 50-plus point FD outings in his last seven games and hasn’t dipped below 30 points in a game since exactly a month ago. He’s been a double-double machine since then and is having easily his best season in a Cavs uniform: His +5.46 RPM ranks third among all PFs. He doesn’t have the easiest matchup against Cunningham today — see the graphic above in the SF section — but he’s been dominant in all matchups this year:
He’s currently the No. 1 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where his $8,400 salary comes with a position-high +4.56 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. And that’s with Kyrie currently projected to play.
Center
Stud
There are no true ‘Studs’ at center tonight: Rudy Gobert is the highest-priced option on FD at $7,700. And if you’re going to pay ‘up’ for a center, he’s not a bad option against the Nets: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a +3.31 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He played 37.4 minutes and scored 37.6 FD points last game against a similarly bad Suns team, even with Derrick Favors starting to need more minutes. Brooklyn plays at the fastest pace in the league, averaging 104.1 possessions per game, and owns the third-worst defense. Further, the Nets have the fourth-worst offense and have grabbed only 47.8 percent of the available rebounds. Gobert has massive upside in terms of blocks and boards.
Value
Harrell is the cash-game value option tonight, but don’t sleep on Joakim Noah in tournaments. He posted 39.2 FD points in 28.5 minutes last game versus the Rockets, a game in which Porzingis wasn’t able to play (he’s out again tonight). He exceeded salary-based expectations by 20.7 FD points in that game and has since dropped in price by $200. He’s now $4,500 FD, and he has a nice +2.88 Projected Plus/Minus and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He owns a position-high +4.73 Opponent Plus/Minus versus the Magic, who have given up big games to centers despite their frontcourt personnel. After jumping up to the No. 2 defense in the league about a month ago, Orlando is now back at 19, allowing a poor 105.6 points per 100 possessions.
Leverage Play
DeAndre Jordan has been disappointingly erratic without Paul lately, and he posted only 28.2 FD points in 27.3 minutes versus the Thunder last game. That said, Steven Adams is an elite defender and Jordan gets a much better matchup against the Suns, who play at the league’s second-fastest pace and own a bottom-10 defense, allowing 107.4 points per 100 possessions. Tyson Chandler has been atrocious defensively this year . . .
. . . and DeAndre definitely has the potential to dominate him and his slow feet in the pick-and-roll. Jordan has the second-highest projected FD ceiling at 50.1 points and is projected for only five to eight percent ownership.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
