Monday brings an odd slate schedule because of the holiday. The biggest slate is at 1pm ET, but there are quite a few today:
Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Golden State Warriors at Cleveland Cavaliers
Rematch Ep. 1 didn’t disappoint: The Warriors blew a 3-1 lead 14-point fourth-quarter lead to lose for the fourth straight time to the Cavaliers. This game is the slate’s most intriguing, and it boasts the highest Vegas total. What other game would we discuss?
For the Warriors, Kevin Durant immediately got involved in the rivalry, putting up 62.5 FanDuel points on 36 real points and 15 rebounds. From a DFS perspective, he and Klay Thompson were the only ‘valuable’ Warriors in that game (per our Trends tool:
However, let’s not be results-oriented with a one-game sample: This team is different now, and that mostly has to do with Stephen Curry. Steph has played much better of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last five games. His usage rate has declined this year — he’s at 28.8 percent, compared to 32.6 last season — but last season was likely an anomaly. While his stats — advanced or per-game — pale in comparison to last season’s unanimous MVP campaign, they’re right in line with his first MVP season. Steph didn’t get worse: He just probably regressed back to being a human basketball player. He’s obviously had his struggles against the Cavs lately — he had only 26.1 FD points in their first meeting — but he’s also only $8,900 on FD, where he has a high +5.17 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Draymond Green dealt with foul trouble last game and hasn’t really shown a ceiling of late with the Warriors: He hasn’t been above 42 FD points in over a month ago. His 49.5-point projected FD ceiling is intriguing in guaranteed prize pools — especially at a low $7,800 — but it’s very difficult to put up a massive line with a 16.06 projected usage rate. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but note that Draymond profiles more as a cash-game option this year.
Let’s start with Kyrie Irving on the Cavs’ side: He is certainly not a good regular-season defender. His -1.92 Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) ranks 69th out of 85 eligible PGs this season, and he’s allowed above-average shooting marks all over the floor:
That said . . . Kyrie has shown that he can be excellent on the defensive end when he cares — and he really cares against the Warriors. In their first meeting on Christmas Day, Kyrie finished with 25 points, six rebounds, 10 assists, and seven steals. He led the team with 27 field-goal attempts and 59.2 FD points:
I’m not a frequent visitor to #NarrativeStreet, but it’s hard to deny that Kyrie really goes at Steph and the Warriors, as evidenced by his massive usage rate and +26.2 FD Plus/Minus.
What do you say about LeBron James? In their first meeting, he went 12-of-22 from the field, 4-of-8 from the 3-point line, and put up a 31-13-4 line for 53.6 FD points. Despite being guarded by all-world defenders in Draymond, Durant, and Andre Iguodala, LeBron has been essentially unfazed by the Warriors. He’s currently the No. 1 overall player among all positions in the Phan Model for FD, where his reasonable $9,900 salary comes with a +6.58 Projected Plus/Minus, 14 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Finally, both Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson profile more as cash-game options in this matchup and nine-game slate. Both missed value last game (although just barely), and they’re a little pricey given the other PF options in the slate — cough, cough, Enes Kanter. They don’t have the ceilings to warrant large exposure in GPPs, and there’s too much value at PF today: Include them in some game stacks, but don’t go overboard outside of the studs in this game.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall is more expensive than the two PGs mentioned above, but he also gets an elite matchup against Portland, who ranks 27th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing a poor 109.0 points per 100 possessions. We ragged on Kyrie’s defense above, but Damian Lillard‘s is even worse: His -2.67 DRPM ranks him 80th among 85 eligible PGs in the league this season. Wall played only 30 minutes last game against the 76ers but put up a 25-7-7 line. He’s been above 36 minutes in each of his six prior games. With how loaded the PG position is today, Wall could potentially be overlooked at his high top-four positional salaries of $9,300 DK and $9,500 FD. That makes him especially intriguing in GPPs, as he trails only Russell Westbrook with his 58.8-point projected FD ceiling.
Value
T.J. McConnell has been ruled out today with a wrist injury, which should put Sergio Rodriguez back in Philly’s starting lineup. He’s currently projected for 30.1 minutes, which is incredibly valuable considering he’s only $3,200 on DraftKings, where he has a position-high +7.55 Projected Plus/Minus and 95 percent Bargain Rating. He has a brutal -2.12 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Bucks, who have been tough against PGs this season and play at a bottom-10 pace, averaging only 97.4 possessions per game. That said, salary is the most important factor here. Cheap starting PGs have historically hit value despite bad matchups:
Leverage Play
Elfrid Payton just had easily his best game of the year, exploding for 57.3 FD points, 28 real points, nine rebounds, and nine assists on the road against the Jazz, who play at the league’s slowest pace, averaging 93.3 possessions per game, and boast the top defense, allowing only 101.1 possessions per game. It was the most brutal matchup possible, and Elf dominated it in every facet. And now he gets the best matchup possible going against the Nuggets:
PGs projected for at least 15 FD points have averaged 34.8 points and an +8.84 Plus/Minus, hitting salary-based expectations in 84.1 percent of contests. Elf is only $6,000 today on FD, where he has an 86 percent Bargain Rating and a massive +5.66 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most expensive SG option in the slate by $1,700, but you could argue that number should be even higher. He just dropped 57.6 FD points in 39.8 minutes against a top-five Hawks defense, and now he faces the 12-26 76ers, who are playing without their starting PG in McConnell. Robert Covington has been an amazing wing defender this season — his +2.55 DRPM ranks third among 80 eligible SFs — and he’ll likely get tasked with guarding Giannis, but Giannis is an impossible cover for just about any defender. He put up 70.3 FD points a week or so ago against Jimmy Butler. Giannis is currently the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model for FD, where his reasonable $10,300 salary comes with a position-high +6.72 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Values
Evan Fournier is currently questionable to play, but I’d be surprised if he suits up today. In his six games out this year, Jodie Meeks has averaged 29.5 minutes, 21.4 FD points, and a +6.40 Plus/Minus (per our On/Off tool):
That may seem like unexciting production, but consider that he’s only $3,800 on FD, where he needs 14.5 points to hit value. He’s currently projected for 31.6 minutes and an 18.0 percent usage rate against the Nuggets, who play at the league’s fifth-fastest pace, averaging 100.7 possessions per game. Meeks is currently second among FD SGs with a +4.86 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
Devin Booker has an awful matchup against the Jazz, but he’s also been red-hot lately, and the Jazz have had some defensive lapses (see: Elfrid Payton and the first quarter of the Magic game). Booker has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games, averaging a +4.67 DK Plus/Minus over his last nine. He’s been incredible over his last three outings in particular, scoring at least 44 DK points in brutal matchups against the Spurs, Mavericks, and Cavaliers. He’s taken at least 20 shots in each of those three affairs and is projected for 36.7 minutes and a 28.86 percent usage rate today. At only $6,000 DK and a low five to eight percent projected ownership, he’s worth rostering in GPPs.
Small Forward
Stud
We already hit on the top-two studs in the game breakdown above, so let’s pivot to Gordon Hayward, who is $7,500 FD and has an excellent matchup today. The Jazz are currently 5.5-point favorites over the Suns, who play at the league’s third-fastest pace, averaging 102 possessions per game, and own the 24th-ranked defense, allowing 107.6 points per 100 possessions. Hayward will matchup against T.J. Warren, who certainly has offensive skill but can be exploited on the defensive end:
Hayward put up 40.5 FD points in 38.6 minutes last game and is projected for 35.1 minutes tonight. He has a nice +1.17 Opponent Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is a better DFS asset when he’s rebounding the ball, and he’s been doing that lately:
He has upside in that regard today going against a small Boston team that ranks 28th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 47.6 percent of the available boards. MKG profiles more as a cash-game play at $4,900 FD because of his limited ceiling. Trailing LBJ and Durant, he’s currently the No. 3 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a +4.33 Projected Plus/Minus and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Payton and Meeks could be popular because of the former’s last game and the latter’s starting spot, but Aaron Gordon could be the most valuable Magic player in GPPs:
Gordon leads the team with 30.3 minutes without Fournier, and he’s averaged 26.7 FD points and a robust +9.80 Plus/Minus in those contests. He’s excelled since the Magic have gone smaller, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last eight games and averaging a +6.67 Plus/Minus over his last nine. He’s only $5,000 FD today and has a high +4.79 Projected Plus/Minus and a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Power Forward
Stud
Nikola Jokic is pretty darn good at basketball, which his coaches in Denver have finally seemed to realize. He’s absolutely crushed lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last eight games and averaging a ridiculous +8.53 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine. He put up 45.5 FD points in only 30.2 minutes last game against the Pacers, and he gets an elite matchup today against an Orlando team that has really struggled against big men. He owns a position-high +4.64 Opponent Plus/Minus on FD, where his $8,000 salary requires only 32.98 points to hit value. He’s projected for only 29.0 minutes, but he’s put up his +8.53 Plus/Minus in less time than that over his last several games.
Value
Steven Adams absolutely nailed his head on the court in a tussle with DeMarcus Cousins last night and is currently questionable for today’s game. He’ll be evaluated for concussion-like symptoms prior to the game. Enes Kanter doesn’t need Adams to miss the game to hit value:
But can you imagine what he’d do if Adams were out? — even against a tough Clippers defense? Unfortunately, we don’t have a sample of Adams out to gauge Kanter’s potential value — Adams missed only two games last year and hasn’t missed one yet this season — but, again, Kanter has been excellent independent of that this year. He put up 46.4 FD points in 32.4 minutes last night against the Kings, and we’re currently projecting him for 29.2 minutes and a 25.38 usage rate against the Clips. He leads all PFs on FD with a +8.32 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
Anthony Davis has an elite +3.53 Opponent Plus/Minus, but he might go overlooked in this slate because of the Warriors-Cavs game and his high price tags of $11,700 DK and $11,600 FD. He’ll match up against young Indy big man Myles Turner, who has potential as a rim-protector and a team defender but can still be exploited:
Brow put up 60.8 FD points in 39.2 minutes against the Bulls last game and hasn’t been below 46 FD points since Christmas time. His projected FD ceiling of 75.2 points is a whopping 22.4 points higher than that of any other PF, and he leads all players at the position with 1.43 fantasy points per minute over the last year. He’s currently the No. 1 option in the Phan Model for FD, where he owns a high +6.71 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Center
Stud
Like Jokic, the young Joel Embiid has played abbreviated minutes, but it hasn’t mattered:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last seven games, averaging a +6.49 FD Plus/Minus during that time — despite remaining on a 28-minute restriction. He’s projected at that mark again today, but he has a fantastic matchup against the Bucks and John Henson, who has allowed a miserable 2.0 points per possession in the pick-and-roll. Embiid is a dynamite player in that role and should be able to put up a big game again: He has a 49.6-point projected FD ceiling, 11 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Lance Thomas has been ruled out with a left orbital fracture and concussion-like symptoms, and he’s gotten the starts in Kristaps Porzingis‘ absence over the last two games. Per our NBA News feed, coach Jeff Hornacek said that Porzingis is closer to doubtful to return to the lineup today, which would slot Guillermo Hernangomez in the starting lineup. He started the second half of last game against the Raptors, and he put up 24.75 DK points in 20.9 minutes of action. He’s projected for 22.9 minutes today, but he needs only 12.65 points to hit value at his minimum $3,000 DK salary. He’s currently the No. 1 center in the Phan Model for DK, where he comes with a position-high +9.85 Projected Plus/Minus and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Portland remains awful against starting centers, and a lot of that is because the Blazers rebound the ball so poorly: Their 48.8 percent rebound rate ranks 23rd in the league this season. Marcin Gortat has missed value in each of his last four games, but he’s still averaged a +4.23 Plus/Minus over his last nine games because of his impressive play prior to this mini-slump. And he’s barely missed value: He’s been above 20 FD points in each of his last nine games, and he needs only 24.2 FD points to meet value at his $6,000 price tag tonight. Mason Plumlee ranks 54th among 69 eligible centers this season with a +0.52 DRPM — he’s behind his two brothers, which is pretty embarrassing to be the worst defensive Plumlee — and Portland ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.0 points per 100 possessions.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
