The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Stephen Curry is currently questionable to play with a right thigh contusion, which is a big factor in this slate. Not only will he affect the ownership levels of his Warriors teammates, but he’ll also change the nature of the PG position. The other two highest-priced ‘studs’ (John Wall and Damian Lillard) have subpar matchups against the Kings and Nuggets, both of which have held PGs to below-average marks this season. Those guys are always in play in tournaments, and Curry is especially intriguing against the fast-paced Magic if he plays, but it might be a night to pay down a bit at PG.
Thankfully, there are some solid options right below them. One example is the Lakers’ Lonzo Ball, who on Saturday became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple-double; he put up 19 points, 12 rebounds, 13 assists, three steals, and four blocks across 38.5 minutes against the Bucks — a 69.9-point FanDuel performance. Doing that against the long arms of Eric Bledsoe, Malcolm Brogdon, and Khris Middleton is especially impressive, and he’ll have a drastically easier matchup tonight against the Phoenix Suns, who will start 5’9″ PG Tyler Ulis:
As you might have guessed, the Suns have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, ranking 31st with a +3.7 FanDuel Plus/Minus allowed to the position. This game has the second-highest Vegas total on the slate at 229 points and should be a popular target across all contest types.
Values
Dennis Schroder doesn’t have the easiest matchup against the Pelicans, who have held PGs to 1.5 points below salary-based expectations on FanDuel this season, but he does bring a nice floor given his current offensive role. He’s currently projected for the highest usage rate (30.9 percent) among all PGs on the slate, and while he’s averaging a -2.15 Plus/Minus over his past 10 games, his usage has remained consistent. He scored just 18.9 FanDuel points on Saturday against the Wizards but still had a 29.2 percent usage rate. Assuming he doesn’t shoot 2-of-16 again from the field — and that’s not exactly a perfectly safe assumption — Schroder should provide a nice floor play at his $7,000 salary.
It was only one game, but on Saturday without Gary Harris, Denver guard Jamal Murray played a season-high 33.4 minutes, absolutely dominated offensively with 32 real points, and led the regular players with a 32.1 percent usage rate. Those marks are probably a little unrealistic, especially since they could give a couple more minutes to fellow PG Emmanuel Mudiay, who has played well this year, but it’s not like either is expensive at their current FanDuel price tags of $4,700 and $4,600, respectively. Further, they have a winnable matchup against Portland, who has been stout defensively this season but has warning signs for regression: They’ve been excellent in FG% allowed around the rim but there’s not an obvious reason. Jusuf Nurkic, for example, has allowed a poor 55.1 percent mark from that area. They are likely doing a solid job contesting shots, but Nurkic isn’t an elite rim protector, and it’s likely they’re getting a little lucky on opponent shooting from close range.
Fast Break
Jeff Teague has one of the worst Opponent Plus/Minus marks on the slate at -3.29 on FanDuel, but that’s likely a bit misleading considering the Jazz will be without Rudy Gobert tonight. Utah ranks third in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 100.2 points per 100 possessions, but that number drops to 104.7 without Gobert. That would rank 19th this year.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Devin Booker is the second-highest priced option on FanDuel at $7,400, although he’s still quite the value there, as evidenced by his massive 97 percent Bargain Rating. He’s gone for 30-plus real points in two of his past three games and remains a usage monster, putting up 30-plus percent usage in those contests. In 11 games sans Eric Bledsoe this season, Booker is the only Sun to average 30-plus minutes, and he leads the team with a 27.7 percent usage rate. In 16 games during his career with a similar team and game total, he’s averaged a +4.44 FanDuel Plus/Minus:
Values
Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari have both been ruled out for the Clippers, which means that Sindarius Thornwell could get another start while Lou Williams becomes the de facto shot creator across most units. In two such games this season, they’ve done well:
Lou should be chalky — he’s averaged a whopping 37.7 minutes in these games and a 26.3 percent usage rate — but Thornwell could be a sneaky minimum-salaried value play. He played 31.5 minutes last game and now has a nice matchup against Philly, who rank 10th this season versus opposing SGs. The four-year player out of South Carolina has the tools to be an excellent NBA defender, and it’s likely his minutes could be safe given his play on that end.
Fast Break
The SG position is fairly loaded with enticing tournament plays at reasonable salaries. Here are a few situations that stand out:
- Tyreke Evans leads all players with a 75 percent Upside Rating on FanDuel over the last month. He’s averaged a stupid-high +7.82 Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his last 10.
- Jordan Clarkson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have two legs and face the Phoenix Suns, who rank third with a +4.1 Opponent Plus/Minus allowed to SGs this season.
- The Cavs have been the worst team versus SGs this year, as evidenced by their +7.2 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Tim Hardaway Jr. is tilting, but that’s an enticing number, as is his $6,000 FanDuel price tag.
- Iman Shumpert should get the start in Derrick Rose‘s absence. Shumpert has played 37.3 and 32.3 minutes over his past two games.
- Will Barton exploded for 49.3 FanDuel points last game, which coincided with Harris’ absence. He played 37.5 minutes, and Nuggets coach Mike Malone could elect to play a tight rotation again tonight.
- Klay Thompson had a 31.2 percent usage rate in two games without Curry last season.
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position is loaded tonight at the top with Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant all in play. Of the three, Giannis has the worst matchup against the Grizzlies, but he’s also probably matchup-proof at this point. He’s gone for at least 58 FanDuel points in each of his last three games and contributes in literally every category. LeBron has played absolutely massive minutes lately …
… and has historically smashed in Madison Square Garden, averaging 51.8 FanDuel points per game across four instances in the past three years.
Those two are excellent plays in any contest format, but this could all be made even more complicated if Curry is ruled out. In two games last year sans Curry, Durant averaged a huge 34.9 percent usage rate and 1.31 DraftKings points per minute. He operated as the ball-handler, and his assist rate jumped a ridiculous 10.5 percent. He’s a scary fade if Curry is out, especially against an Orlando squad that ranks sixth in pace this season.
Good luck picking between these guys!
Values
Without Gobert, the Jazz will likely play smaller with Derrick Favors at center and either Thabo Sefolosha or Joe Ingles at the four. Both are SFs on FanDuel and projected to play 30-plus minutes tonight against a Minnesota team that should be good defensively but certainly hasn’t been so far this year. They rank 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions, and have been the third-worst team against opposing SFs (+3.4 Plus/Minus). Thabo will have a very low usage rate — he’s projected at just 13.8 percent right now — but is only $4,100 on FanDuel and has upside given their new scoring and his propensity for steals and blocks.
Fast Break
The Wizards are the worst team in the league — by far — against SFs. I mean, woof:
National champion Sacramento SF Justin Jackson should see increased minutes again with Vince Carter out. Jackson has double-digit shot attempts in each of his past three games.
Wilson Chandler sucked in his last game (and all year), but he did play 41.2 minutes with Harris out. If he can be even semi-competent while on the floor, it’s hard to miss value given that playing time.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is playing massive minutes for the Pelicans …
… and is third on the slate behind Giannis and teammate DeMarcus Cousins with an average of 54.0 FanDuel points per game. He certainly has massive upside on any night, and especially in this matchup against the Hawks, who rank top-10 in pace but 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.8 points per 100 possessions. Further, they’re the worst rebounding team in the league with a 46.5 percent rebound rate. I’m not sure what the record is for most rebounds for a pair of teammates in NBA history, but we might find out tonight.
Values
It seems silly to call Blake Griffin a value, but he certainly is on FanDuel, where his low $8,400 price tag comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He went through a rough stretch and has averaged a -2.95 Plus/Minus over his last 10, but he’s played 38.2 and 39.4 minutes in the past two games, posting a massive 38.1 percent usage rate in his most recent contest. He’s had to be the offensive hub, especially recently with Gallo and Beverley out: In the two games without those guys, he’s averaged 39.1 minutes per game and a 31.6 percent usage rate. They’ve played 3.7 possessions per 48 faster during that time, and they’ll likely play fast against Philly, who ranks third this season with a 105.6 pace mark. The on/off numbers actually perhaps understate Blake today, as he posted a miserable 33.7 percent eFG% in those two games. That number will almost assuredly come up soon.
As Brook Lopez continues to be faded out of the rotation in LA, Kyle Kuzma‘s minutes keep climbing:
Both he and teammate Julius Randle are in a great spot against Phoenix, who rank second in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency. They have been decent against PFs, but Kuzma is less reliant on rebounding given his elite shooting, and he poses massive matchup problems for the Phoenix bigs.
Fast Break
John Collins is a boom-or-bust option, given how his fouling tendencies might creep up tonight against Davis and Cousins. But he’s posted 30-plus FanDuel points in three of his past five outings.
Tom Thibodeau likes to keep a tight rotation, and Taj Gibson played 36.7 minutes last game without Gorgui Dieng, who is unlikely to play with a sprained finger. Gibson is just $4,600 on FanDuel, where he comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Kristaps Porzingis is expensive at $9,600 on both sites, but he’s an alien and facing the Cavs, who are the fourth-worst team against PFs this season with a +3.9 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Aaron Gordon is an interesting contrarian play, especially if the Magic are without both Jonathan Isaac (out) and Elfrid Payton (questionable). In the one game without them, he played 36.2 minutes at an absurdly-high 111.3 pace.
Center
Stud
Remember what I said about Brow above? All those things apply to DeMarcus Cousins, as well. He owns the highest Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel among all players at +9.7, and he leads the center position with 11 Pro Trends. Cousins leads the league with 155 defensive rebounds and should have plenty of them today against Atlanta, who ranks 25th in offensive efficiency and dead last in rebound rate. Schroder went 2-of-16 in his last game; Cousins could possibly get to 20 rebounds solely off Dennis’ misses tonight.
Value
In the first game without Gobert, Derrick Favors played 35.6 minutes and posted 44.5 DraftKings points. He was aggressive offensively, posting a .467 free throw rate, and he’ll look to keep things going tonight against a Minnesota team that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency. Karl Towns is going to be a monster throughout his career, but he sucks defensively in the early going: The Wolves have been 9.2 points/100 worse defensively with him on the court versus off this season; he ranks in the bottom-10 percentile in that regard. Favors remains very cheap, especially on DraftKings, where his $4,600 salary comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Marcin Gortat has seen his numbers drop in the past couple of games due to blowouts, and it’s possible that could happen again tonight; the Wizards are 11-point favorites against the Kings. If he does get the minutes, however, he’s in a brilliant spot: Sacramento ranks dead last this season with a +5.1 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus to centers.
Speaking of bad teams versus centers, we have the bottom-five teams playing tonight:
Whether it’s DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, or even Enes Kanter, these guys all have high upside for GPPs given their elite matchups.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
