Monday brings a seven-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Studs
Stephen Curry has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games, scoring 44.3 DK points in each and shooting at least eight 3-pointers. Steph’s usage rate continues to stay solid at 29.0 this year even with the addition of Kevin Durant. On today’s NBA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast, we argued Curry versus Russell Westbrook, and there’s definitely pros to both players, given Russ’ floor and Steph’s price point. Note that the Knicks have been surprisingly good against PGs this year — Westbrook has a poor -4.15 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight — although his $12,200 FD price tag comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Both are solid plays tonight, although Westbrook likely gets the bump in cash if roster construction allows you to afford him.
Value
Mike Conley is a good example of why we should pay attention to our Bargain Rating metric. Conley is currently the highest-rated PG in the Phan Model for DK, where his low $6,500 price tag comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. On FanDuel, his $7,400 salary is a little harder to swallow. He’s definitely in play in DK cash games, and he has the best matchup for PGs this season: He has a position-high +4.61 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight against the Charlotte Hornets. He’s shown 50-plus DK point upside lately, and he notably scored 47 DK points in 36.6 minutes against these Hornets exactly a week ago. He leads all DK PGs with a +5.35 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
Derrick Rose has a nice matchup tonight against the Thunder, who have allowed opposing PGs to score 2.34 FD points over salary-based expectations against them this season. Despite the historical reputations of these two teams, this game is actually projected to be close: The Knicks opened as one-point favorites and currently sit as a one-point dog. This game boasts the second-highest Vegas total on the slate at 216 points, and the Knicks are currently implied for 107.5 points. Rose has shown flashes of a really nice ceiling lately: Just last game, he scored 46.6 FD points in 34.2 minutes against the Hornets. Rose’s best three games over the past three weeks have come against Kemba Walker, Damian Lillard, and John Wall. There’s a chance he’ll get up for another elite PG tonight.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan isn’t very intriguing in cash games tonight given the amount of value in the SG spot with Victor Oladipo, Bradley Beal, and Josh Richardson, but that makes him a really nice tournament option. DeRozan has easily the highest-projected ceiling among all SGs tonight at 58.8 DK points, and he gets a 76ers team that currently ranks 19th defensively this season and will be without Joel Embiid. DeRozan has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games by an average of 2.97 DK points, scoring at least 42 fantasy points in those contests. He’s down at $8,400 tonight on DK, where he comes with a position-high 10 Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. Not many people will likely pay up for DeRozan given the other high-priced options.
Value
Bradley Beal is the exact same price as Oladipo ($6,300) on FD, yet he comes with a higher-projected median, floor, and ceiling. They’re projected to play almost the same amount of minutes — around 36, to be exact — yet Beal is projected to use 26.25 percent of his team’s possessions while on the floor versus 20.83 for Oladipo. Beal does have the tougher matchup — his -0.23 FD Opponent Plus/Minus mark isn’t ideal tonight — but he’s been very good lately, scoring at least 43 FD points in three of his last four games. He’ll get the Kings tonight, who rank 27th defensively this year, allowing an awful 108.4 points per 100 possessions. They do play at a slow pace — they average 96.9 possessions per game — but Beal should be safe enough given his minutes projection.
Leverage Play
Victor Oladipo has been very consistent lately, hitting salary-based expectations in each of his last seven games and scoring at least 27 FD points and getting at least 32 minutes per game in that time frame. He has a really nice matchup tonight: While the Knicks have been great against PGs this year, they’ve really struggled against SGs; Dipo has a position-high +4.54 Opponent Plus/Minus. He’s projected for 36.4 minutes tonight with a 20.83 usage rate against a Knicks team that ranks only 26th this year on defense, allowing 107.2 points per 100 possessions. Again, there are other value plays — we can even throw Rodney McGruder in here with Dion Waiters out — but Dipo brings a lot of safety at only $6,300 FD.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant seems like a must-play given the other options at SF tonight. He’s easily the most expensive guy at $9,900 DK and $10,000 FD, but his floor is way higher than any other SF’s: For reference, he’s projected for a 35.0-point FD floor tonight; second, Gordon Hayward at 22.7 points. Durant has been incredibly consistent this year with the Warriors and has now scored at least 40 FD points in each of his last 10 games. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those contests by an average of 7.69 points. Tonight is the most expensive he’s been all year, but he’s still too cheap: He leads all FD SFs with a massive +7.34 Projected Plus/Minus. The Warriors are large 13-point favorites, but Durant has gotten his even in large-spread games this season.
Value
The player with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus mark (+5.76) on FD is Otto Porter. He’s also been very good lately, hitting salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games by an average of 8.46 FD points per game. He’s been playing huge minute totals — he’s projected for 36.9 tonight — and he’s been a very consistent rebounder, grabbing at least seven boards in each of his last six games. He’s also shown a lot of steals upside — he has 15 in his last six games — which shows that he can get fantasy points in a variety ways, raising his floor. It’s hard to get excited about a SF2 on FD tonight, but Porter might be the best option at only $6,100.
Leverage Play
We’re currently projecting James Johnson for 31.2 minutes for the Heat tonight and he’s only $4,200 on FD, where he comes with six Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Al Horford was ruled out already for the Celtics tonight, which should be a fairly large hit to Boston’s defense. Johnson isn’t really a ‘Leverage Play’ down from the other SF options — he’s currently projected for 13-16 percent FD ownership tonight — but that could be a bit high if people decide to roster Richardson or McGruder and want to avoid stacking the low-implied Heat. Johnson has crushed value lately, exceeding expectations in eight of his last nine games by an average of 6.53 FD points. He’s a nice GPP option on both sites tonight.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis isn’t a ‘Stud’ by salary — he’s $7,500 DK and $7,200 FD, which is lower than the usual studs we mention — but he’s probably one of the most important cash-game players given slate dynamics and positional scarcity. As such, he’s projected to be owned in 31-35 percent of FD lineups — the highest mark of any player at any position. He’s been excellent lately, hitting expectations in each of his last seven games, scoring at least 32 FD points and playing at least 30 minutes in that time frame. This matchup isn’t ideal — he has a low +0.29 Opponent Plus/Minus mark against the Thunder, who rank 11th defensively this year — but he presents a matchup problem for any team given his size and shooting. He’s attempted at least four 3-pointers in each of his last eight games and has racked up six blocks in his past three. That’s a rare skill set.
Value
Porzingis leads all FD PFs with a +5.13 Projected Plus/Minus mark, but JaMychal Green is right up there at +4.54. He should play a ton of minutes tonight again, especially with Zach Randolph already ruled out: He’s projected for 32.4 minutes and 21-25 percent ownership on FD. Green doesn’t have a great matchup either — his Opponent Plus/Minus today is even worse at -1.35 — but PF is a really tough position and Green has been very consistent lately, hitting expectations in each of his last six games. He’s gotten at least 28.4 minutes in all of those (30-plus in five of the six) and has scored at least 20 FD points in that time frame. At only $4,600 on FD, he’s a fine PF2 option alongside Porzingis.
Leverage Play
Gorgui Dieng is an intruiging option in GPPs if you don’t believe that Karl-Anthony Towns can deal with Utah center Rudy Gobert. Dieng has been excellent lately for the Wolves, hitting salary-based expectations in each of his last seven games and scoring at least 23 FD points during that time frame. He has a brutal Opponent Plus/Minus mark tonight — it’s at -4.75 because of the Jazz’ elite second-ranked defense — but our models currently have Dieng beating expectations on FD by 3.16 points. Further, the Jazz backcourt is a little less stifling with Derrick Favors out of the rotation. Dieng is projected for 35.1 minutes tonight and is an excellent pivot off of Porzingis in large-field tournaments.
Center
Stud
DeMarcus Cousins is a great play in a vacuum, but there’s a ton of value at the center position tonight, which means that most people will likely pay down for the position in cash games. That said, Boogie is very much in play tonight: Despite his high $10,000 FD price tag, he currently leads all centers with a +6.24 Projected Plus/Minus mark. He’s projected for 34.6 minutes and a position-high 36.15 usage rate, and he boasts a nice +2.42 Opponent Plus/Minus mark against a Washington team that has disappointed on defense this year, ranking 23rd and allowing 106.2 points per 100 possessions. Boogie is always fairly popular, but he’s projected for only 13-16 percent ownership on FD, which is much lower than some of the other high-priced studs available. He’s an elite GPP play for that reason.
Value
Jahlil Okafor has been excellent in games without Embiid this year, scoring an average of 24.9 DK points and exceeding salary-based expectations there by an average of 3.3 points. He’s seen huge bumps in those five games, exceeding his usual DK average by 6.0 points and using 2.4 percent more possessions while on the floor. He’s a much better value on FD, where his $4,200 price tag comes with seven Pro Trends and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He’s a fairly easy cash-game option on that site, and that’s accentuated by his great matchup today: He faces a Toronto team that has been terrible against centers this season, allowing 4.41 FD points over salary-based expectations. At $5,000 on DK, Okafor is a GPP-only play.
Leverage Play
While Okafor is a much better play on FD, Karl-Anthony Towns is a much better play on DK, where his $8,000 price tag comes with a whopping 15 Pro Trends and a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Much like Dieng, he has a brutal Opponent Plus/Minus mark against the Jazz (-4.33), but KAT has shown both this year and last that he can 1) deal with Gobert and survive (listen to today’s pod for more info on that) and 2) play well against that type of center and defense. DeAndre Jordan isn’t a perfect comp by any means, and he’s nowhere near the defensive talent Gobert is, but KAT has posted 43-plus DK outings in his two games against the Clippers defense and a center who likes to hang close to the rim. At low ownership given the matchup, I don’t mind taking some shots on KAT in GPPs.
Good luck!
News Updates
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