Monday brings an eight-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook had a 77.4-point FanDuel outing last night on 41 real points, 12 rebounds, and 16 assists — and that wasn’t even his best performance of the year (80.6 FD points in Game 2). It’s reasonable to wonder just how long Russ can keep up this offensive burden throughout the season: He’s used 41.3 percent of the Thunder’s possessions this year, and that undersells how involved he is because it doesn’t account for rebounding or assists. That’s a fair concern, which means that perhaps early in the season is when we should keep riding Westbrook. He leads all PGs with 1.43 fantasy points per minute and will face a Detroit team that has been average against PGs this season, allowing 0.4 DraftKings points above salary-based expectations (per our Plus/Minus metric). Russ is expensive, but we know his upside.
Values
Today’s slate is interesting in that there are so many juicy matchups to target: All five of the worst defenses — the Knicks, Pacers, Magic, Rockets, and Celtics — are playing today. Further, high-scoring offenses such as the Clippers and Rockets are playing the Nets and 76ers: There will be lots of fantasy scoring tonight.
If you got burned by the JJ Barea late scratch last game out, welcome to the club. The good news is that he hasn’t played since last Tuesday now and should see 30-plus minutes against the Knicks, who own the worst defense in the league. Interestingly, the Knicks have been very good (per our Trends tool) against PGs this year, holding them to an average of 2.39 FD points below expectations. However, that is mostly due to cheap PGs not hitting value: Marcus Smart, another PG playing off the ball, dominated the Knicks a couple days ago, putting up 39.2 FD points at a $4,900 salary. George Hill, Kyrie Irving, and Isaiah Thomas have all put up big games against the Knicks recently as well. Barea is just $5,800 on FD, where he owns a position-high 12 Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Chris Paul and the Clippers are facing the Brooklyn Nets as slate-high 14.5-point favorites tonight. They are implied for a slate-high 114.5 points. CP3 has an interesting price: At $8,700 DK and $9,200 FD, he’s about $1,000 more expensive than Thomas, who in turn is about $1,000 more expensive than the group of mid-priced PGs with great matchups — the Bareas, Jeff Teagues, and Elfrid Paytons of the world. As a result, CP3 has a projected FD ownership of only five to eight percent, even though he’s the PG of the highest-implied team. That is certainly intriguing. He might be too risky for cash games given the high spread, but because of the low ownership he’s an elite tournament play today.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is the most difficult player to deal with in this slate. He’s on a ridiculous tear right now: He has at least 50 FD points in each of his last six games, and the last two were against the Spurs. He’s still the NBA leader in assists per game (13.0) and is fifth in points per game (30.0). However, today’s matchup is difficult to deal with: He faces the 76ers, which is good in that the Rockets are implied to score 113 points, but bad in that they’re 11.5-point favorites. There’s no doubt that Harden can absolutely dominate this matchup — per our Matchups tool, he’ll face off against Gerald Henderson, who has allowed 1.7 DK points above salary-based expectations in the past year — but there’s also a big blowout risk here. Harden could see abbreviated minutes. That may not matter, but it’s definitely something you have to take into consideration, given his $12,000 DK and $11,700 FD salaries.
Value
As mentioned in Saturday’s breakdown, Josh Richardson was reported to be working himself into game shape early in the season. He may not be there completely, but the fact that he’s increased his minutes total in his first four games from 11.6 to 25.3 to 28.4 to 32.9 is definitely an encouraging sign. Further, he’s been using a solid number of possessions right away: He’s taken a combined 29 shots — including 10 3-pointers — in his last two games. He smashed value last game against a tough Jazz defense — ranked fourth in the league — scoring 26.6 FD points at a low $3,600 FD price tag. He’ll have another tough matchup again today against the Spurs, but he’s still only $3,600 and should see 30-plus minutes again. Goran Dragic has already been ruled out today, which means that Richardson should get the start at PG again. He had four assists last game.
Leverage Play
Avery Bradley has been excellent lately, exceeding value in eight of his last nine games by an average of 8.5 FD points. He’s definitely more expensive now ($7,000 FD) than he was at the beginning of the year ($5,600) but he’s still hit value as his salary has increased. Further, he has a fantastic matchup tonight against a Pelicans team that plays at a top-10 pace yet has a bottom-10 defense. He should face E’Twaun Moore, who has allowed opposing SGs to score 1.8 DK points above salary-based expectations over the past year. Bradley is at an interesting price point given Harden’s ceiling and Richardson’s expected value, but he’s definitely in play today: The Celtics are currently implied to score 108.75 points.
Small Forward
Stud
Carmelo Anthony burned a lot of DFS players with his ejection two games ago, but he responded nicely last game with a 43.2-point FD performance in 37.7 minutes against a solid Raptors defense. Taking away his abbreviated game, Melo has now scored at least 37 FD points and played at least 34 minutes in each of his last four games. He’s still probably underpriced at $7,800 FD, where he currently holds 11 Pro Trends and five to eight percent projected ownership. There is very steep positional drop-off between the top tier of guys — Melo, Kawhi Leonard, Gordon Hayward, and Paul George (who is questionable tonight) — so paying up might be the wise choice in cash games. Melo is $1,400 cheaper than Kawhi on DK and $700 cheaper on FD.
Value
After the top tier, there’s only one player who seemingly has a high enough floor for cash games: Harrison Barnes. He’s been great to start the season, hitting value in six of his last eight games by an average of 8.3 FD points. Further, he’s been playing massive minutes, getting 33.8, 39.5, and 48.4 in his last three outings. At just $6,000 on FD — where he holds 11 Pro Trends and a slate-high 99 percent Bargain Rating — he’s almost a must-play in cash games given the positional scarcity and the other high-priced studs at different positions. He currently holds a +5.0 Projected Plus/Minus on FD and is projected for a position-high 13-16 percent ownership against a Knicks team that ranks dead last in defense this year.
Leverage Play
Gordon Hayward has hit the ground running after a broken finger held him out of the first couple of Jazz games, scoring at least 43 FD points in each of his last three games. He’s also been taking at least 17 shots per game and playing high minutes — part of that is due to George Hill‘s absence, and he’s questionable again tonight. This isn’t a fantasy-friendly looking game — the Jazz-Grizzlies’ total is a slate-low 188 — but Hayward has shown that he can hit value despite playing in low-total games on a nightly basis. If both Hill and Derrick Favors are out (questionable with a sore left knee), Hayward could play huge minutes as the option for the Jazz. He’s definitely intruiging as a tournament pivot down from Melo or Kawhi.
Power Forward
Stud
If you thought the SF position today was brutally top-heavy, just look at the PF options. Anthony Davis ($11,300 DK, $11,500 FD) is clearly the class of the slate, yet he’s about $3,000 more expensive than the next guy in Blake Griffin, who in turn is about $2,000 more expensive than any other PF. Because of that scarcity, it is incredibly difficult to fade Brow, especially since Griffin is a slate-high 14.5-point favorite over the Brooklyn Nets: He may get only three quarters of action tonight. Brow has a really nice matchup playing against a Celtics team that currently owns the fifth-worst defense in the league. The Pelicans are implied for 104.25 points tonight, and you have to imagine that Brow has to put up a huge game for that to come true. He has immense scoring upside as usual, but he also has a ton of rebounding upside against a Celtics team that has been the second-worst rebounding team in the league this year.
Values
Andre Drummond has been declared doubtful, which should mean increased minutes for both Jon Leuer and Tobias Harris, who both have PF eligibility on both sites. Unfortunately, they are in a brutal matchup against a Thunder team that is tied with San Antonio for the sixth-best defense in the league. They are anchored by center Steven Adams down low, who has held opposing players in the past year to 5.2 points below salary-based expectations. That number will not be reflected in the Opponent Plus/Minus data because Leuer and Tobias are wings/PFs, but they are absolutely impacted by Adams’ defensive presence down low. Right now Leuer is the better ‘value’ given his low price tags of $4,700 and $5,800, but both warrant exposure in guaranteed prize pools if Drummond is indeed out.
Leverage Play
Kristaps Porzingis has seen his minutes drop in the past two games — he’s played 29.8 and 23.3 in the past two — but he’s projected back up at 30.4 today. Further, he’s still been using a high number of possessions: He’s projected for a 25.88 usage rate today and has still taken at least 15 shots in each of his last five games despite the low minute totals in a couple of them. Tonight is a fairly tough matchup, as the Mavericks currently rank 27th in pace on the year and 13th defensively, but, again, this is a really tough PF slate. Porzingis has a 16.9-point projected floor on FD, where his $6,800 price tag comes with nine Pro Trends and an 81 percent Bargain Rating.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid doesn’t fit the ‘Stud’ category in terms of price — he’s still only $6,300 DK and $5,400 FD — but he’s certainly a stud play in this slate. He easily has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on FD at +8.53, although that does come with a position-high projected ownership of nine to 12 percent. He’s been great this year, hitting value in every game he’s played by an average of 6.67 FD points per game. He’s still going to see abbreviated minutes for the foreseeable future — he’s projected for 25.4 tonight — but that’s fine, given his massive 38.0 percent usage rate. Tonight he has an awesome matchup against a Houston team that currently ranks as the fourth-worst defense in the league.
Value
If Al Horford is out again tonight — he’s technically questionable but I’d be surprised if he played — then Kelly Olynyk will continue to be an elite value play at just $4,000 on FD. In his past two games starting for the Celtics, he has played 27.9 and 29.9 minutes and put up FD outings of 28.2 and 30.9 points. For reference, at that $4,000 salary, he needs only 15.42 FD points to hit value. That seems fairly easy, especially against a 1-9 Pelicans team that ranks as a bottom-10 defense this year. It’s understandable to favor Embiid over Olynyk, but the latter is certainly worthy of consideration in all contest formats.
Leverage Play
With Drummond now doubtful, Hassan Whiteside becomes the only center priced above $7,100 on FD, where he is up at $8,400 against the Spurs. He’s definitely risky tonight, as the Heat are implied for a slate-low 89.5 points and will be without Dragic again. However, his ceiling is much higher than that of any other center in this slate — it’s 13.1 FD points higher, to be exact — and he did post his best game of the season in Game 3 against the Spurs, putting up 55.5 FD points in 34.9 minutes. Embiid and Olynyk will draw high ownership, which should mean that the other high-priced studs like Brow and Harden should be highly-owned as well. That means that simply paying up for Whiteside will likely give you a unique roster in tournaments.
Good luck!
News Updates
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