The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
It is not a good slate to pay up for point guards in cash games: Of the six highest-priced options, all but Ricky Rubio have strongly negative Opponent Plus/Minus values. Only Rubio and Kyle Lowry are in pace-down spots.
Thus, it’s wise to pay attention to projected ownership and site pricing. For example, Damian Lillard is a much stronger value on DraftKings, where his $8,700 price tag comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Lowry, on the other hand, is a better value on FanDuel, where his cheap $7,500 price tag comes with an 81 percent Bargain Rating. When all of the matchups are bad, play the DFS field instead of the NBA matchup. Actually, always do that.
One guy with likely low ownership and a high ceiling is Kemba Walker, who has a brutal matchup against a Grizzlies squad that ranks fourth in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 97.2 points per 100 possessions, and 29th in pace, averaging 96.7 possessions per 48 minutes. Still, Kemba is relatively affordable on both sites and is scorching right now, putting up a combined 104.3 FanDuel points over his last two games. The most important data point, however, is his usage rate: He’s used 32.0 percent of the Hornets’ possessions while on the floor, and given how many minutes he’s playing that results in a ton of shots. He’s put up 47 attempts in his last two games plus eight free throws. With that high of a shot ceiling, he’s worth pursuing in guaranteed prize pools, even in the bad matchup. For what it’s worth, he’s gone for 44-plus FanDuel points in three of his six games against the Grizz since 2014.
Value
Goran Dragic is quite cheap at $6,500 on DraftKings and has no issues with minutes: He’s played 30-plus in every game this season and has been over 36 in each of the last two games. He has a nice matchup today against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have yet to realize their defensive potential given their talent and coaching staff. In fact, they’ve been downright putrid: They rank dead last in Defensive Rating, allowing a miserable 114.3 points per 100 possessions, and they’ve allowed opposing PGs to score 7.62 DraftKings points over salary-based expectations. Tyler Johnson is worth some GPP exposure at his low $4,300 price tag on FanDuel as well, although he does have a low ceiling, as evidenced by his 13.4-point outing last game.
Fast Break
J.J. Barea has averaged a +5.71 FanDuel Plus/Minus in seven games this season, dipping below 20 fantasy points just once. Dallas rookie PG Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable to play, which means Barea and Yogi Ferrell could get a bump in minutes. In the two games without DSJ this season, Ferrell led the team with 35.9 minutes per contest, while Barea led the team with 1.13 FanDuel points per minute.
T.J. McConnell has gone for 33.0 and 36.8 DraftKings points over his last two games and yet remains cheap at only $4,400 on DraftKings, where he comes with a nice 86 percent Bargain Rating. He has a brilliant matchup against a Houston squad that has allowed PGs to score 12.21 fantasy points over salary-based expectations this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has been a bit up-and-down this season, but he’s coming off two excellent games in which he scored 53.5 and 54.1 FanDuel points against the Hornets and 76ers. Today he once again gets the 76ers, who rank 20th in defensive efficiency, allowing 106.0 points per 100 possessions. They’ve been better with Joel Embiid on the court, and while he’s playing today he’s yet to approach 30 minutes this year. With Harden playing 35-plus minutes per night, he should have plenty of time to operate the offense without a rim protector guarding the basket. Harden leads all SGs by at least seven points with his projected ceiling, and he’s projected for ‘only’ 17-20 percent ownership given the better spots for other studs.
Values
No player has been more discussed in our FantasyLabs NBA slack chat than Tim Hardaway Jr. this season. He was atrocious for his first four games of the season, despite having solid matchups (versus the Brooklyn Nets, for instance). And then Sunday happened. I’ll just throw this CSURAM88 quote in here:
“Should’ve seen this THJ ham game coming on a Sunday, where there is no action.”
The good news: He’s shown that progression is possible. He finally shot the ball well, hitting 11 of his 19 shot attempts, including five of 10 from the 3-point line, and he finished with 34 real points and 55.8 FanDuel points. More good news: He’s still quite cheap, especially on FanDuel, where his $4,300 price tag comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating. For a guy with his usage rate and minute load, that’s a ridiculous salary. Now the bad news: He’s probably not a good basketball player and always has the potential of putting up a single-digit dud performance. Have fun!
Fast Break
For as much as everyone has made fun of THJ, Rodney Hood has been pretty darn disappointing as well. His issues aren’t exactly with shooting the basketball — his usage rate of 25.2 percent and true shooting mark of 61.0 percent are both career-highs — but with his peripheral stats. Seen as a fill-in offensive creator after Gordon Hayward left, he’s posted only a 13.6 percent assist rate; his steal and block rates are both down as well. All that said, he has a nice role for this Jazz team and is affordable at $5,200 on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is the highest-priced SF option by $2,300 on FanDuel, so let’s discuss him. He’s been the same old Durant this season, with the exception that his minutes have increased from around 33 last season to over 37 this year. His usage rate and true shooting percentage marks are right in line with last year’s marks, which means he’s been a very valuable DFS asset:
He does have a tough matchup against the LA Clippers, although he’s fairly matchup-proof, averaging a +0.37 FanDuel Plus/Minus in 91 games with a negative Opponent Plus/Minus since 2014. He has the third-highest projected floor among all players in the slate.
Values
The Western Conference wing version of THJ, Danilo Gallinari has been terrible in LA, as evidenced by his 43.8 percent true shooting rate, which is easily the lowest of his career. That said, he’s still playing heavy minutes — he’s projected for 35-plus tonight — and is an important part of this offense. Eventually his shot will start falling, and it’s nice that you have to pay only $5,900 on DraftKings or $6,200 on FanDuel to take a chance on that happening. He has a tough matchup against the Warriors, although they’ve shown some defensive vulnerability early in the season, ranking 26th in defensive efficiency and allowing 108.4 points per 100 possessions. Even if they improve, they’ll still stay fast-paced: They rank fifth in the league with 103.9 possessions per 48 minutes.
Fast Break
I guess the theme of this breakdown is regression, because we’re about to hit on a guy who could really use some in Jimmy Butler:
He hasn’t quite fit out in with his new team this year, posting a putrid 15.5 PER. However, in his first four games he faced absolutely brutal matchups — at Spurs, vs. Jazz, at Thunder, vs. Thunder — and he looked better in his last game, going for 40.5 FanDuel points in 38.2 minutes of action. It’s wise to bet on guys with elite talent when they’re undervalued by the public, and this is a spot to do so. Butler remains ridiculously cheap on DraftKings (although he’s only SG-eligible there), where his $7,200 price tag comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Power Forward
Stud
The injury concern with Anthony Davis is always present, but so is his high floor:
It’s always tough to decide whether to roster Brow in cash games, but this year he’s arguably been the best DFS asset outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo and his teammate, Boogie. Put simply: He’s a scary roster but an even scarier fade. Today he has a beautiful matchup against the Orlando Magic, who rank third in pace, averaging 106.9 possessions per 48 minutes. They’ve been atrocious against PFs this season, as evidenced by Brow’s position-high +7.74 FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus. He will likely decide the fate of many GPP rosters tonight.
Value
Miami Heat center Hassan Whiteside is reportedly “very doubtful” to return tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves. According to our NBA on/off tool, James Johnson has led the team with a +3.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus in the four games without him this season:
He’s hit value in every game but one this season and actually has seen a big price drop over the last couple days: He’s only $6,700 on FanDuel tonight after getting up to $7,400 on Saturday against the Celtics. That’s very intriguing given his current role and matchup against the Wolves, who have been terrible defensively this year, allowing opposing PFs to score 3.84 points over salary-based expectations. JJ is tied with Blake Griffin and Kristaps Porzingis for the most Pro Trends (12) among all PFs today.
Fast Break
Speaking of Griffin and Porzingis: It will be interesting to see how DFS users treat the rest of the high-priced PF studs. Brow is clearly in a class of his own, but Griffin and Porzingis have been excellent in expanded roles this season, and even guys like LaMarcus Aldridge and Draymond Green have played well and have high ceilings. Given the player pool, perhaps it’s worth paying up for Ben Simmons, who has seen his price skyrocket from $5,600 in his first game to $9,300 today on FanDuel. It’s hard to say he hasn’t been worth it:
Among all the studs, he’s projected for the lowest ownership at five to eight percent.
Center
Studs
If you were worried about Davis and DeMarcus Cousins playing together and cannibalizing DFS production, worry no longer:
They’ve both posted usage rates of over 30 percent, and Cousins leads the team with a 36.4 percent mark through six games. He’s been an unstoppable force down low, and he could keep things rolling today against an Orlando team that ranks third in pace this season. No team is equipped to handle Boogie, but especially not the Magic, who start defensive sieve Nikola Vucevic at center. This could be another bloodbath.
Value
Two guys are quite cheap, likely to start, and should play around 25 minutes tonight: Miami’s Bam Adebayo and Boston’s Aron Baynes. The former certainly has the easier matchup against the Wolves — Baynes faces the Spurs — although it’s fair to argue if he really has a ceiling worth pursuing in GPPs. He has a usage rate projection of only 15.53 percent, and he could certainly see some foul trouble going against Karl-Anthony Towns. Baynes perhaps has the easier 1-on-1 matchup against Pau Gasol, and he showed a decent ceiling last game, scoring 27.5 FanDuel points against the Heat. You’ll have to decide whether you can stomach these guys’ low floors in cash games.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid had his worst game of the year last outing, scoring ‘only’ 39.5 FanDuel points. That’s good for us, as FanDuel subsequently lowered his price by $600 to $8,000 tonight. He’s still turnover-prone this season — he had seven in his last game — but he’s just an absolute fantasy beast: He’s second among all players in the slate, behind only Cousins (1.53), with his 1.51 fantasy points per minute. As mentioned above, he’s unlikely to see 30-plus minutes, and yet he still has a top-five ceiling projection for the position. He has a nice matchup against a Houston team that ranks exactly average defensively, allowing 102.7 points/100.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
