The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s main slate differs depending on site: DraftKings offers a four-game slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET, while FanDuel offers a two-game slate starting at 6 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Raptors offense has quietly been among the best in the league, with their average of 110.6 points per 100 possessions trailing just three teams. Kyle Lowry has had a bit of a subpar year by his standards, averaging just 16 points per game, but he’s made up for that in DFS recently by piling up the peripheral statistics. He has a somewhat tough matchup today with the Sacramento Kings, who are currently playing at the third-slowest pace in the league, but the Raptors’ implied team total of 109.5 still ranks second on the DraftKings slate.
Value
De’Aaron Fox is doubtful to play today for the Kings, which should open the door for George Hill and Frank Mason III to see a few extra minutes. Head Coach Dave Joeger recently stated that he’d like Hill to be more aggressive on the offensive end, and so far, it’s appeared to work: Hill has averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.19 over his last four games. Mason is slightly cheaper than Hill and has actually been the more productive player on a per-minute basis over the past month. On a short four-game slate, both guys are firmly in play.
Fast Break
On FanDuel, the PG position is a wasteland today. You’ll either have to overpay for a guy like John Wall or Spencer Dinwiddie – both of which have a Bargain Rating below 10 percent – or bite the bullet with some of the value options. From a matchup perspective, it might make sense to look at a few Pacers players today against the Brooklyn Nets. Neither Darren Collison or Corey Joseph has played particularly well recently, but the Nets are playing at the second-fastest pace in the league and the Pacers lead the slate with an implied team total of 110 points.
Wall played 30 minutes in his second game back from injury and could have some intrigue today in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). The Wizards are taking on the Cleveland Cavaliers, and it’s possible that Wall will see his minute count increase even further in today’s matchup. But it’s not like Wall will fly under the radar on this slate: He’s projected for 41+ percent ownership on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Today’s slate is light on top-end talent, but the SG position is surprisingly deep. Victor Oladipo headlines the group. He has been a revelation this season, averaging more than 42 fantasy points per game while shooting career-best percentages from both the field and 3-point range. Today’s matchup with the Nets is the top pace-up spot of the day, with Oladipo and the rest of the Pacers owning a pace differential (paceD) of +5.5. Oladipo crushed the Nets in his first matchup this season, scoring 41.75 DraftKings points in just 24.5 minutes of playing time. He will likely be one of the highest owned players on the slate, and deservedly so.
The best matchup of the day at the position belongs to Bradley Beal, who owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.82 on DraftKings against the Cavaliers. He’s been priced down a bit after the return of Wall, and his current $7,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. Beal has historically loved playing the Cavaliers, owning a Plus/Minus of +5.41 in eight matchups over the past three seasons.
Value
Buddy Hield hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes for the Kings this season, but he has averaged a productive 0.96 fantasy points per minute when on the court. He’s another player who might see a slight bump in playing time without Fox. Hield has averaged just over 33 DraftKings points per game with him off the floor this season:
Hield has a solid matchup against the Raptors, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.50 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The highest ceiling projection at the position doesn’t belong to Oladipo or Beal, but rather DeMar DeRozan. He offers as much scoring potential as anyone in the league and has it going at the moment, scoring at least 31 points in back-to-back games. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where his $8,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is the lone mega-stud on today’s slate, and that alone should result in massive ownership. It doesn’t hurt that he’s been outstanding recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +4.04 on FanDuel over his last 10 games and posting a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over the past month. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.61 fantasy points per minute over that time frame, and his average of 37.2 minutes per game ranks third in the league this season. I’m not entirely sure why the Cavs insist on playing him so much in meaningless December games, but we should probably keep taking advantage for DFS purposes as long as they continue to do so. He should also benefit from Dwyane Wade sitting out today’s contest: LeBron has averaged more than 60 FanDuel points per game in the two games Wade has missed this season:
It’s also fair to say he’s had some previous success in this matchup against the Wizards, as he went for 92.7 FanDuel points in his first meeting with them this season. He leads all players with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Values
Allen Crabbe has played big minutes recently for the Nets, seeing at least 31 minutes in four straight games. He hasn’t really converted that playing time into fantasy points yet, but he’s shown the ability in the past to get hot from the 3-point line. He’s one of the more appealing value options on the slate.
Bogdan Bogdanovic – aka the one on the Kings – is expected to be the chalk on DraftKings today, owning a projected ownership of 41+ percent. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games and is coming off 33 minutes of playing time in each of his past two games. With that said, he might be worth some fade consideration in GPPs considering that he hasn’t shown much of a ceiling: He hasn’t eclipsed 30 fantasy points in any game this season.
Fast Break
DeMarre Carroll could be a bit overlooked on today’s slate after sitting out the last contest for the Brooklyn Nets. He’s been one of the primary beneficiaries of the injury to D’Angelo Russell, averaging a 1.5 percent bump in usage and just under 30 FanDuel points per game without Russell this season.
Power Forward
Stud
Thaddeus Young is questionable for today’s game, but if he’s active, he’ll find himself in a wonderful spot against the Nets. Brooklyn has been one of the worst teams in the league this season against opposing big men, evidenced by Young’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.28. Further helping his case is the fact that he’s seen at least 37.5 minutes in five straight games. If Young were unable to go, Domantas Sabonis would likely enter the starting lineup and become one of the top value options of the day. He’s averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute this season and has been priced down to just $4,300.
Value
Jeff Green is never a guarantee to play big minutes, but he’s actually posted a Consistency Rating of 92 percent on DraftKings over the past month. He’s also been one of the biggest beneficiaries in the two games without Wade this season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +12.4:
Fast Break
Fear the emoji. Mike Scott has come on recently for the Wizards, scoring at least 28.8 FanDuel points in two of his past four games. He played more minutes than Markieff Morris in their last game and has the upside to be a GPP winner a relatively low ownership if things break right for him.
Center
Studs
The center position features some pretty big pricing discrepancies between the sites at the top. Kevin Love has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on FanDuel and leads all centers with an average of 1.29 fantasy points per minute over the past month. But he doesn’t play as many minutes as you would expect – we currently have him projected for just 29.4 – and he has a difficult matchup today against the Washington Wizards. He obviously has more upside than any other center on the slate, but he also offers some downside at $8,000.
Meanwhile, Myles Turner has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings against the Nets. He eviscerated Brooklyn for 51.0 DraftKings points in their first meeting this year. That game was one of the fastest that has been played in the past few seasons, so it’s probably a little fluky, but it goes to show the kind of upside that Turner offers at just $6,700.
Value
Zach Randolph was just ruled out for the Kings, which means that Willie Cauley-Stein should be free to assume big minutes. So far this season, no one on the Kings has seen a bigger bump in production with Randolph off the court than WCS:
Skal Labissiere also becomes intriguing: He’s averaging 0.91 fantasy points per minute this season, but has averaged just 16.7 minutes per game.
Fast Break
Jahlil Okafor played 22.5 minutes in his second game with the Nets and that number only figures to increase moving forward. He’s shown a proclivity for scoring at the NBA level, and the fantasy points will undoubtedly come if he’s given playing time. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.50 on DraftKings, where his $3,800 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
