The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tonight we have a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook’s average Plus/Minus gets more than cut in half this year when he plays winning teams (no shade, Russ) — but the Nuggets are an exception. Westbrook exploded for 65-plus fantasy points twice in three games against Denver this season. The NBA’s highest-energy superstar has been just okay on the second leg of home back-to-backs this season, though, posting a +0.55 FanDuel Plus/Minus in four games, and he has struggled over a larger sample as well, with a lackluster -2.65 in 15 games dating back to 2014-15.
Damian Lillard has been boom-or-bust against the Clippers this season, scoring over 50 DraftKings points in one meeting but failing to crack 40 in two others en route to a -3.07 average Plus/Minus.
Value
Dennis Schroder is doubtful against Philadelphia due to tanking … or an ankle injury — whatever they’re calling it these days. This allows second-year man Isaiah Taylor to make another start. Taylor has played at least 26 minutes in every start, topping 30 fantasy points in three of four. We have Taylor projected for over 30 minutes tonight, and at $4,800 on both DraftKings and FanDuel he’s one of the slate’s top values.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio’s salary on DraftKings has jumped $800 this month, but he still has a 98% Bargain Rating tonight along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate among players only eligible at point guard. Rubio’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.49 is also pristine against a Memphis team resigned to trotting out Mario Chalmers at the point. Rubio may be best suited for tournaments, however, as the Jazz are 15-point favorites. Rubio played only 26 minutes in a blowout win against Golden State last Sunday.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden has been just chillin’ since Sunday but will return tonight with his team an 18-point favorite against a Suns squad he’s toppled for 54.0 and 64.9 FanDuel points in two meetings this season. At first glance, I was surprised when I ran our NBA Trends tool and found that Harden had a +4.18 Plus/Minus in 22 games this season in which Houston has been a double-digit favorite, but then I looked at just February and March (when it started to become clearer the Rockets could afford to coast a bit) and things made more sense:
Chris Paul (ankle) may sit out, which has given Harden slight bumps in usage (+1.1%) and Plus/Minus (+0.7), but the potential blowout remains a concern.
Value
With Milos Teodosic (foot) out, Tyrone Wallace is in line to start (at point guard) for the Clippers at Portland. The Trail Blazers tend to hold opposing guards in check, but 2016’s Mr. Irrelevant has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and averages a Plus/Minus of +3.80 in 14 games in which he’s projected for at least 24 minutes.
Josh Hart is back tonight for the Lakers against Milwaukee after missing the past 14 games. Hart played just under 33 minutes and scored 31 DraftKings points in his only game with Lonzo Ball (knee), Isaiah Thomas (hip), and Jordan Clarkson not on the court this season.
UPDATE: Gerald Green will start for the Rockets tonight with Paul and Eric Gordon (knee) ruled out. Green has played 30 minutes and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games, and is a top value tonight against Phoenix.
Fast Break
J.J. Redick could be popular with Joel Embiid out, though the Ringer podcaster has seen only a modest jump in usage (+0.3) in nine games without his concussed teammate — not to mention his effective field goal percentage has dropped by 6.2 points, per our NBA On/Off tool.
Troy Daniels has played at least 28 minutes in six straight games for the Suns, including a few blowouts. The 26-year-old journeyman exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in five of those games and carries a 98% Bargain Rating on the site, where his $4,200 salary is cheaper than it is on DraftKings ($4,600).
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James has an 86% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’s been a better play there this season, averaging a +2.35 Plus/Minus and 62% Consistency Rating compared to a +1.27 Plus/Minus and 59% Consistency Rating on FanDuel. LeBron’s 4.44 Opponent Plus/Minus against the visiting Pelicans is tops among all small forwards priced above $4,200 on DraftKings. LeBron has also been a beast at home:
With value abound tonight, paying up for LeBron is definitely viable.
Yesterday I noted that Giannis Antetokounmpo is the only top-10 DraftKings scorer this season with a negative average Plus/Minus (-0.3), and that it dips to -1.3 on the road. The same still applies tonight against the Lakers, and it’s also worth noting that, in the eight games he’s played on the second leg of a road back-to-back, it drops even further to -2.1.
Value
As I write this, David Nwaba is the top-rated small forward on FanDuel in the Phan Model. A road date with the Magic also nets Nwaba the highest Opponent Plus/Minus at the position tonight (+4.6). He’s played 25-plus minutes in five straight games and is projected for 30 tonight, making him one of the slate’s top values.
Fast Break
Another small forward with a great matchup is Robert Covington, who boasts an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.71 against the Hawks. And, unlike Redick, Covington’s usage rate in games without Embiid gets a significant bump of 3.6 points, tops on the team.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is a better play on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93% and an excellent Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.53 against the Cavs. The fear with Davis tonight is that he’s on the road, where he’s struggled without the hometown scorekeeper there to gas up his block totals:
Value
Ben Simmons (who is a PG/SF on DraftKings) has seen a 2.3-point bump in usage rate in 11 games without Embiid, but it hasn’t translated into value, with Simmons’ average Plus/Minus actually dropping by 2.1 points on FanDuel. On the other hand, Dario Saric has turned a 2.6-point usage bump into an additional +6.1 points of Plus/Minus. Saric sits atop the position in our NBA Models and deserves to be one of the most popular power forwards tonight.
Fast Break
Julius Randle and Kyle Kuzma both see usage rates north of 25% with Ball, Thomas, Clarkson, and Larry Nance Jr. off the court this season, giving both high upside against Milwaukee tonight.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has a 95% Bargain Rating and a position-leading 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings for tonight’s game at Dallas, but he’s struggled to live up to his cost on the road this season:
It’s a similar story with Nikola Jokic at Oklahoma City: He has a Bargain Rating of 93% and 10 Pro Trends but struggles away from his home floor:
There is a lot of value at center today, so paying up in cash games would be playing with fire.
Value
Richaun Holmes has averaged 21.8 minutes per game without Embiid, and we have him projected for about that many tonight at Atlanta. Despite that modest amount of playing time, our NBA On/Off tool shows that Holmes can be valuable in games without Embiid:
Fast Break
Mike Muscala is on a run of exceeding salary-based expectations on FanDuel in nine of his past 10 games. He’s a nice value at $4,300 versus Philadelphia.
At $7,500 on FanDuel, DeAndre Jordan has a 98% Bargain Rating at Portland. Unlike the aforementioned studs, Jordan averages a better Plus/Minus on the road (+1.6) than at home (-1.3).
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: LeBron James.
Photo credit: Jeremy Brevard, USA TODAY Sports.
