The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a five-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
There isn’t a stud at the PG position today: Five players are priced between $7,000 and $9,000 on FanDuel, and all the others are under $6,000. Each of the top guys lead the position in projected minutes but have specific pros and cons. Lonzo Ball is projected for a slate-high 41.1 minutes against the Pistons, and he’s gone even higher than that in each of his past two games. He’s been excellent of late, hitting value in seven of his past 10 games, and he’s incredibly safe given his position-high average of 2.54 steals plus blocks. Terry Rozier is right in the mix as well at $7,100 on FanDuel, where he comes with a 95% Bargain Rating. He’s averaged 33.1 minutes and a team-high 32.9 FanDuel points per game in 13 games this season without Kyrie Irving. He has a great matchup today against the fast-paced Phoenix Suns, evidenced by his massive +3.28 Opponent Plus/Minus.
Value
Andrew Harrison is only $5,200 on DraftKings and has a plus matchup against a Minnesota team that ranks 25th in defensive efficiency on the year, allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions — and is likely even worse than that with Jimmy Butler still out. Harrison is expected to crack 30 minutes again with Tyreke Evans out, and he has been an awesome fantasy asset of late, averaging a +6.21 Plus/Minus on 70% Consistency over his past 10 games. He’s been in the 20-30% usage rate area of late, which makes him a nice value at his current price tag.
Fast Break
Jeff Teague has a huge +3.49 Opponent Plus/Minus today against the Grizzlies, who surprisingly rank in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency on the year. He’s coming off a brutal outing against the Philadelphia 76ers in which he scored just three real points in 22.6 minutes and got dominated by Joel Embiid every time he meandered into the paint. Teague should have an easier time today and is quite cheap at $6,600 on DraftKings, where he boasts a 95% Bargain Rating.
Jamal Murray has a brutal matchup against Embiid and the Sixers, but he could be an interesting contrarian play in tournaments with Gary Harris out. Per our NBA On/Off tool, Murray has seen a usage rate bump of 3.6% in eight games sans Harris this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The SG position is absolutely brutal today. The most-expensive option, Devin Booker, is “very questionable” to suit up with a sprained right hand, and the next highest guy, Will Barton, has to face the 76ers’ elite defense. I’m looking to pivot down just a bit to $6,100 on FanDuel for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who at 41 minutes is projected to play at least five more minutes than any other SG on the slate. He’s gone for at least 38 minutes in each of his past four games, hitting value in five of his past 10. He wouldn’t be a surefire cash-game play on most slates, but this isn’t a normal slate for SGs. Locking in 40-plus minutes is too good to pass up.
Value
Troy Daniels leads the position with a +5.21 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, and he’s likely going to see over 30 minutes tonight at a $3,800 price tag. He does have a tough matchup against Boston, who ranks first in defensive efficiency on the year, but it’s still difficult to pass on that salary. The Suns have played four games this season without Booker and T.J. Warren, who has already been ruled out with a knee injury, and in those games Daniels has averaged 32.2 minutes and 22.6 FanDuel points per game. That’s not terribly exciting, but it could definitely get the job done in cash games given how bare the position is today.
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr. is very much a boom-or-bust player: Over his past three games, he’s gone for 18.1 FanDuel points against the Heat, 52.9 against the Wolves, and 27.3 against the Wizards. He has a exploitable matchup against a Charlotte defense that has regressed this season, ranking only 16th in efficiency on the year. He’s a perfect GPP pivot off of KPC at the exact same price point on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
The SF position isn’t so great either. This is a weird slate: Seven players are priced at $8,800 or higher today, and they’re all at the PF and C positions. Josh Jackson is the “stud” of the slate at SF at just $7,200 and is actually a solid play today given the injuries to Booker and Warren; Jackson has averaged a team-high 34.9 minutes in three games without those two. He’s averaged only 31.0 FanDuel points per game in those games, which would not hit value today, but he has really picked up his play of late, averaging a robust +6.82 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80% Consistency over his past 10 games. He has a tough matchup against the Celtics but should play massive minutes. And he doesn’t mind jacking up shots, as evidenced by his position-high 26.4% usage rate projection.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica has been all over the place of late:
He’s missed value in four of his past five games — mostly thanks to atrocious shooting numbers. He played fewer than 30 minutes twice in that span, but those were in games that weren’t exactly competitive versus the 76ers and Clippers. In his other games he’s played around 35 minutes, and he’s missed value playing on the road against tough defenses like the Rockets and Spurs. My point: He’s going to get back to the 35-minute range, and he should see positive shooting regression at some point. It could definitely come tonight against the Grizzlies, who, again, are in the bottom 10 in defensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum and Michael Beasley are in the $5,000-$6,000 range today and sit second and third, respectively, in projected ceiling among all SFs. Tatum has a beautiful matchup against a Suns team that plays a whopping 4.6 possessions per 48 minutes faster than the Celtics, and he’s shown at least a semblance of a ceiling of late, notably going off for 47.2 fantasy points against the Thunder last week. We know Beas’ can go off on any night, and he’ll likely be somewhat low-owned given his disappointing 17.2-point fantasy outing against the Hornets just nine days ago.
Power Forward
Stud
Blake Griffin has really bounced back lately in fantasy, hitting value in seven of his past 10 games:
He did bust in his last game against the Bulls, scoring just 24.3 FanDuel points in 26.2 minutes, but that was a blowout, and it dropped his salary by $600 today, to $8,800, against the Lakers. The Lakers aren’t terrible defensively this year, ranking a respectable 13th in efficiency, but this is still a good matchup for Blake, as LA plays at a pace 4.6 possessions/48 faster than the Pistons. Blake has gone for at least 45 fantasy points in three of his past four meetings against the Lakers, and he has an excellent +3.96 Opponent Plus/Minus today. He’s a supreme value on FanDuel, where he comes with a 93% Bargain Rating, and he leads all players in the slate with 14 Pro Trends.
Value
Take a look at Kyle Kuzma‘s recent game log:
Kuzma is playing absolutely huge minutes, going for over 40 in two straight, and he should be right there again tonight as he continues to start for the injured Brandon Ingram. In five games this season with Ingram and Isaiah Thomas, who is out with a hip injury, Kuz has averaged 35.7 minutes and 35.08 FanDuel points per game. He’s posted a huge 27.1% usage rate in those games, which could be key in this tough matchup. He faces the Pistons, who rank third in the NBA over the past 10 games with a 99.6 Defensive Rating. Still, $6,600 is just too cheap for that workload.
Fast Break
Kuzma’s teammate, Julius Randle, is right there at the top of our NBA Models as well. Randle has posted an excellent +4.27 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70% Consistency over his past 10 games and is projected for 35-plus minutes tonight. He’s averaged a 26.5% usage rate in five games this year without Ingram and Thomas.
Marquese Chriss has hit value in each of his four previous games and could see a slight value bump with Booker and Warren not in the lineup to use up possessions. Chriss can fill up the box score with rebounds, steals, and blocks, and he’ll certainly have opportunities against a Boston squad that is in the bottom 10 in offensive rebound rate and often struggles to score without Kyrie in the lineup. At just $3,800 on DraftKings, Chriss is worth exposure in GPPs.
And of course, let’s not forget about Ben Simmons. He’s a PF on FanDuel, but he’s actually a better value today on DraftKings, where his $8,800 price tag comes with a 98% Bargain Rating. He’s a PG/SF on that site. Anyway, the dude has triple-double upside in every game he plays.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has been a stud lately, posting a +4.81 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70% Consistency over his past 10 games. He leads all centers today in projected minutes, Pro Trends, and Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’s coming off a disappointing last performance, shooting only 3-of-15 against the 76ers, but there’s room for optimism. He likely won’t post five turnovers again, and I’ll buy his 37.7% usage rate from his last game even though it didn’t equate to fantasy points. He leads all centers with a +6.13 Projected Plus/Minus, and he gets to return home, where he’s been much better throughout his young career.
Value
Brook Lopez is probable to suit up, and he leads all centers on FanDuel with a +4.82 Projected Plus/Minus. Again, the matchup isn’t great given Detroit’s overall team defense of late, but they have been merely average against opposing centers on the year. BroLo has really jacked up shots of late, taking double-digit field goal attempts in 10 of his past 11 games; he’s gone for at least 17 real points in eight of his past nine games. He seems like a solid lock for cash games but a reasonable fade in tournaments, given his potentially high ownership and tough matchup versus Detroit.
Fast Break
Paying up in tournaments for guys like Joel Embiid, Andre Drummond, or Nikola Jokic is definitely intriguing. The 76ers have been blowing teams out, which is why Embiid has missed value of late. In four games that were much closer before the most recent three blowouts, he’s smashed, putting up 53.8, 60.8, 50.0, and 50.4 FanDuel points. He should be in a close affair tonight against a Denver team playing for their playoff lives. Drummond has gone for 20 rebounds in each of his past two games and could be the lowest owned of the stud options. Jokic has seen a nice usage rate lately and had success against Philly earlier this season, going for 53.6 FanDuel points. Denver will need his spacing and scoring tonight if they want to hang with the hot 76ers.
Good luck!
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Photo credit Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports
