The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyle Lowry has quietly been an amazing fantasy asset over his past 10 games:
He doesn’t have a great matchup today against the Memphis Grizzlies, evidenced by the Raptors’ mediocre implied point total of just 103.5 points, but he has seen a nice price decrease on DraftKings as a result. Lowry has historically been a solid value when comparably-priced:
Values
Elfrid Payton is coming off a season-high 40 minutes in his last game, thanks in part to the injury to Evan Fournier. He’s expected to play big minutes again today – we currently have him projected for 34.4 – and he has historically crushed with a comparable projection:
He also has an excellent matchup today against the Nuggets, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.20, and the Magic’s implied team total of 110.5 points ranks second on the slate. He may be too good of a value to pass up on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
J.J. Barea has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.41 over his past 10 games, thanks in part to an average of 1.17 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t typically play a ton of minutes, but that could change today with Dennis Smith Jr. currently questionable. So far this season, Barea has averaged just under 40 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Smith off the court:
In the two full games Smith has missed this season, Barea has averaged a usage rate of 31.9 percent, 27.88 DraftKings points, and a Plus/Minus of +9.0.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker has a matchup with the Chicago Bulls today, who he destroyed for 64 DraftKings points in their previous meeting in Chicago. He gets to face them today in Charlotte, where Walker has historically been much better throughout his career:
He should have minuscule ownership on today’s slate, with a current projection of just five to eight percent on DraftKings.
Kyrie Irving has a dreadful matchup with the San Antonio Spurs, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.08 on FanDuel. That said, FanDuel has reduced his salary by $1,100 in anticipation of the difficult matchup, and his current $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 32.5 percent in eight of his past nine games and has the offensive talent to blow up against anyone.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Victor Oladipo looks like a new man since escaping the shadow of Russell Westbrook in Oklahoma City. He’s become the go-to guy for the Indiana Pacers, with his usage rate of 30.1 percent ranking 13th in the league this season. As a result, his salary has skyrocketed by $1,700 over the past month, culminating in a price tag of $9,300 on FanDuel for today’s slate. Despite the increase, he still has a lot of appeal in today’s matchup with the Cavaliers. They’ve been dreadful all season, and Oladipo’s resulting Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.94 is the top mark at the SG position by a significant margin. There’s also a chance that Myles Turner could miss today’s contest – he’s currently questionable with a calf injury – and Oladipo has seen the largest usage increase on the team with Turner off the court this season:
Oladipo probably won’t be considered a priority for most given the studs available at other positions, but he has as much upside as anyone on today’s slate.
Value
What does Gary Harris have to do to get some respect around here? He’s posted a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over his past 12 games on DraftKings, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.34, yet he remains affordable at just $6,400. He’s definitely benefited from the injuries to Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap, with no one on the team seeing a larger bump in usage with the stud big men off the floor this season:
He has a good matchup today against the Orlando Magic, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.81.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies are implied for just 97 points today against the Toronto Raptors, but Tyreke Evans should still be on your radar. He’s underpriced on FanDuel at just $7,500 given his projected minutes and usage rate with Mike Conley still sidelined.
Klay Thompson posted a major dud in his first game without Curry, taking a back seat to the red-hot Kevin Durant. That said, he still projects to see a significant bump in usage without Curry and should see a nice reduction in ownership after the poor performance. He doesn’t have a great individual matchup against Avery Bradley, but Thompson has the capability to go off against anyone.
Nicolas Batum has played at least 35.5 minutes in back-to-back games, which likely makes him underpriced at his current $6,100 salary on DraftKings. The Hornets will be shorthanded today without Cody Zeller and Frank Kaminsky, which could result in even more minutes for Batum in today’s contest.
Small Forward
Studs
It’s going to be hard to look past Kevin Durant on today’s slate given what he did in his first game without Curry. He posted a usage rate of 43 percent en route to a triple-double, resulting in 72.25 DraftKings points. That said, there are a few reasons for pessimism today. The first is his matchup with the Detroit Pistons, who are playing at one of the slower paces in the league. The Warriors’ implied team total of 109 points represents a significant decrease from their average of 117.8 points per game, and Durant’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.45 on DraftKings is merely average. Durant should also lose some of his offensive responsibilities with Draymond Green expected to return to the lineup. Jordan Bell drew the start for Draymond in the Warriors’ last game and posted a usage rate of just 4.5 percent; Draymond will undoubtedly post a higher number. While Durant remains a cash-game building block without Curry, his projected ownership could make some fade consideration warranted for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
LeBron James continues to play huge minutes for the Cavaliers, playing 41 minutes against the Kings on Wednesday. If the Cavs are going to continue to run him into the ground in meaningless December games, we should probably continue to take advantage: He leads all players on today’s slate in projected minutes (39.1) and fantasy points per minute over the past month (1.53). The presence of Durant resulted in average ownership of less than five percent for LeBron on Wednesday’s slate and will likely diminish his ownership again today.
Value
Jakarr Sampson played 33 minutes for the Kings in their last game against the Cavaliers, pulling down 16 rebounds en route to 28 DraftKings points. He will likely be one of the most popular value options of the day at just $3,400, but it’s possible he could lose minutes if the Kings choose to go big in their matchup with the New Orleans Pelicans.
Fast Break
The small forward position is easily one of the deepest on today’s slate. Both Rudy Gay and Jonathon Simmons could be considered elite plays in their own right given the current injury situations for their respective teams. Gay has played at least 32 minutes in each of the past two games for the Spurs and scored at least 35.25 DraftKings points in both. With both Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Anderson still out, Gay should be cleared for a big workload once again, albeit in a very tough matchup with the Boston Celtics. His $5,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Simmons, meanwhile, played 41 minutes in his most recent game and should continue to play huge minutes without Fournier and Terrence Ross. No one on the Magic has seen a bigger increase in usage with both wing players off the floor this season than Simmons:
In terms of points-per-dollar value, both Simmons and Gay could wind up as better plays than Durant and James on today’s slate.
Power Forward
Stud
Coach Steve Kerr said he would be shocked if Draymond Green didn’t return for today’s game with the Pistons. He’ll be returning to a Warriors team that is going to be extremely shorthanded, with Zaza Pachulia joining Curry and Patrick McCaw on the sidelines for today’s game. Draymond has seen an increased usage and assist rate with Curry off the court this season, although those increases have oddly resulted in 2.7 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes:
Still, the increased opportunities figure to be a positive in the long run, and Draymond’s 91 percent Consistency Rating over the past month provides some safety at what is otherwise a pretty weak position.
Value
If Turner can’t go for the Pacers today, Domantas Sabonis will likely return to the role he thrived in earlier this season. In the seven games Turner missed, Sabonis averaged just under 40 FanDuel points per game:
At his current $4,800 salary, it would be very hard to pass up on that kind of production if he were to draw the start.
Fast Break
Zach Randolph has played at least 32 minutes in three straight games for the Kings, and with Willie Cauley-Stein sidelined with an injury the coast seems clear for him to continue playing a big role. He leads the team with a usage rate of 26.5 percent on the season, and his $5,900 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Serge Ibaka has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in six straight games and is coming of a 39.7-point fantasy performance in his last outing against the Suns. Perhaps even more important than the production was his 33 minutes of playing time, which was his second-highest mark of the season. He seems underpriced on FanDuel at $5,100, where his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Center
Studs
Anthony Davis is questionable to make his return today, but most people will likely be rooting for his absence. DeMarcus Cousins has absolutely smashed in four games without Davis this season, averaging a usage rate over 39 percent:
One of those matchups came against the Sacramento Kings, who also happen to be his current opponent and former team. Even at an elevated salary, it would be tough to pass on Cousins in a #RevengeGame without Davis in the lineup.
As good as Cousins has been, it shouldn’t overshadow what Andre Drummond has done recently. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.35 over his last 10 games on FanDuel, thanks in part to an assist rate of 17.3 percent that nearly triples his previous career-high. He scored 48.1 FanDuel points in his first meeting with the Warriors, and they’ll be missing their best rebounder in Pachulia. Assuming the game doesn’t get out of hand – which is always a possibility with the Warriors – Drummond should have plenty of opportunities to feast on a shorthanded Warriors frontcourt.
Value
You never know how many minutes John Henson will play for the Bucks, but today’s spot against the Mavericks profiles as a good one if he gets the opportunity. They currently rank 26th in the league in rebound rate, and Henson ranks 19th in the league in rebound percentage.
Fast Break
Nikola Vucevic gets to take on a depleted Nuggets frontcourt today that just got smashed by Cousins in their last outing. While Vucevic obviously isn’t Cousins, he should benefit from the absence of Fournier for today’s contest. On the season, Vucevic has averaged close to 51 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Fournier off the court:
It should be noted that those numbers have come over just 55 minutes this season, but it does highlight the potential upside that Vucevic has in this matchup.
Kevin Love is one of the few centers who is a better value on FanDuel than DraftKings, with his $8,000 salary coming with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He has an awesome matchup today against the Pacers, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.37, and he has a Consistency Rating of 85 percent over the past month.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
