The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
PG is absolutely loaded today, featuring strong options throughout the entire pricing spectrum. It starts up top with Russell Westbrook, who has looked like his old self over his last 10 games on FanDuel:
That said, his matchup with the Raptors might make him a bit riskier than usual: Toronto ranks fifth in defensive efficiency and Westbrook has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.61. He does lead all PGs with 12 Pro Trends and has posted a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over his last 15 games.
John Wall might actually be the preferred stud option on FanDuel, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. His minutes have slowly increased since returning from injury seven games ago, culminating with 39 on Christmas. He should be clear to play big minutes again today given that the Wizards are off tomorrow. Wall has destroyed over the past two seasons with a comparable minute projection and salary:
He also has a juicy matchup with the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.63, and the Wizards’ implied team total of 109 points is tied for third on today’s slate.
The Celtics are expected to be pretty shorthanded today with Marcus Morris already ruled out and Jaylen Brown and Semi Ojeleye both doubtful. That could lead to an increased role for Kyrie Irving, who has averaged a usage rate of 33.4 percent in the three games without both Brown and Morris:
He has a solid matchup with the Charlotte Hornets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.33.
Value
Terry Rozier is another member of the Celtics who could see an increased role today. The third-year pro looks like a steal at just $3,800 on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for 26.9 minutes and Rozier has historically smashed with a comparable minute projection:
He looks like one of the better value options of the day regardless of position.
Fast Break
Kemba Walker has been priced down to just $6,600 on DraftKings, which is an almost unprecedented price tag for the All-Star PG. He’s only been priced below $7,000 in 24 previous instances and Walker has unsurprisingly crushed in those contests:
He has a tough matchup today against the Boston Celtics, who rank first in the league in defensive efficiency by a wide margin. Walker does get to face them at home, where he has historically been a much better fantasy producer. Regardless of matchup, this price tag may just be too good to pass up.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jimmy Butler has been phenomenal recently on DraftKings, posting a Consistency Rating of 92 percent while averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.38 over his last 10 games. Despite that production, his salary has actually decreased drastically over the past week, falling from $8,900 on 12/23 to just $8,000 today. After a slow start to the season with his new team, Butler has destroyed when comparably priced over the past two months:
He doesn’t have a great individual matchup against the Denver Nuggets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.18, but the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 109.5 ranks second on today’s slate.
Value
Today’s slate features a pair of mid-range SGs who should be the chalk across the industry. Jordan Clarkson will likely draw the start at PG for the Lakers due to the Lonzo Ball injury, which should lead to a huge boost in value. He scored 45.7 FanDuel points in 35 minutes in lieu of Ball on Christmas and has averaged 36.3 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Ball off the court this season:
Despite the big fantasy production in his last game, he shot just 8-23 from the field, which shows you the type of upside this guy has if everything breaks right for him today. He’s still very affordable at $5,500 on FanDuel and $5,600 on DraftKings.
Marcus Smart is another member of the Celtics who should see an increased role given their injury situation. He’s averaged 34.2 minutes per game in the three games without Brown this season and Smart his historically returned value when projected for at least 32 minutes of playing time.
He has a solid matchup with the Hornets, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.87.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell is in an extreme pace-up spot against the Golden State Warriors, with him and the rest of the Jazz owning a pace differential (paceD) of +8.6. The Jazz are big underdogs in this matchup, but he does have upside at his current salary if they can keep this game close.
Small Forward
Studs
SF will probably be a position where most people choose to pay up today given the presence of LeBron James and Kevin Durant. LeBron is coming off his first poor game in what seems like forever, scoring just 29.2 FanDuel points against the Warriors on Christmas. He has a solid matchup today against the Sacramento Kings, who currently rank dead last in terms of defensive efficiency. He leads the slate with 15 Pro Trends, and comparably priced players have historically been awesome fantasy assets:
Durant, meanwhile, continues to smash without Steph Curry in the lineup, averaging just over 54 DraftKings points per game:
He does have a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.56, which could push the ownership needle in the direction of LeBron today. That could make KD an interesting option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), especially on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
Victor Oladipo is currently questionable for today’s contest. If he ends up sitting, Lance Stephenson figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. So far this season, no one on the Pacers has averaged a higher Plus/Minus with Oladipo off the court than Stephenson:
In the lone game that Oladipo missed this season, Stephenson played 36 minutes and scored 31.75 DraftKings points.
Fast Break
Like Wall, Otto Porter has recently returned from an injury and is likely underpriced if he’s going to play as much as he did in his last game. Porter played 35 minutes on Christmas against the Celtics and has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.36 today against the Atlanta Hawks.
After a slow start to the season, here’s what Wilson Chandler has done over his last 10 games:
He remains underpriced on DraftKings, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
Is it premature to call Kyle Kuzma a stud? He’s certainly played like one recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +10.41 over his last 10 games on FanDuel. No one at the position has played as many minutes as him recently – he’s played at least 40 in four of his last five games – and he leads all PFs today with a projection of 38.6. He doesn’t have a great matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies, but he’s simply too cheap at the moment given his recent workload and production.
Value
Jayson Tatum should see all the minutes he can handle with Morris and Brown both unlikely to play, averaging a team-high 34.9 per game with both players out this season. Daniel Theis could also be an intriguing value option: He’s posted the largest increase in Plus/Minus and second largest increase in games without Morris and Brown:
Don’t forget about Derrick Favors today, who continues to provide solid value at the PF position with Rudy Gobert on the sidelines, averaging just under 33 DraftKings points per game with Gobert out of the lineup this season. However, today’s game against the Warriors could carry more risk than usual. In addition to the 12-point spread – which is the largest of the day – this game could also downsize and potentially cost Favors some playing time.
Fast Break
Draymond Green seems fully recovered for the Warriors, but that hasn’t done anything to affect the playing time of Jordan Bell. He’s been extremely impressive recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.98 over his last seven games and a stout 1.18 fantasy points per minute over the course of the season.
Anthony Davis seems unlikely to be a primary target for most people today, despite the fact that the Pelicans lead the slate with an implied team total of 116 points against the Brooklyn Nets. That could make him an appealing target for GPPs, although he has averaged a Plus/Minus of -5.22 over his last 10 games on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has one of the largest pricing discrepancies on the slate, owning an $8,700 price tag on DraftKings and $10,500 salary on FanDuel. That makes him extremely appealing on DraftKings, especially considering his average Plus/Minus of +6.53 over his last 10 games. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends, despite the fact that he only has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.02 against the Denver Nuggets.
Value
Enes Kanter has put on a show in his last two games, scoring over 56 FanDuel points in both. He’s always been able to gobble up rebounds and points in bunches, but moving to the Knicks from OKC has seemed to solidify his minutes this season. He has a solid matchup today against the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.77, and his $6,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Dwight Howard is another center who looks like a value on DraftKings, owning a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He has a solid matchup against the Boston Celtics, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.25.
Marcin Gortat has not been playing reliable minutes recently, but he could be a potential value today in an exploitable matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks have been one of the worst teams in the league against centers this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.19 for Gortat on FanDuel, and his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo via Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
