The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, we’ll go game-by-game instead.
New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards (-3) – 219 total
Anthony Davis appeared to get hurt in his last game but managed to finish and play 44 minutes in an overtime loss to the Nuggets. The Pelicans have been off for three straight days, so it seems likely that he’ll play today despite the injury. The DFS public has struggled to trust Davis since his return on 12/8, posting average ownership of just 5.99 percent over his past three games. He has played at least 36 minutes in each of those contests, which makes him an intriguing buy-low option today against the Washington Wizards. He’s currently priced at just $10,100 on DraftKings, and Davis has historically been an awesome value when comparably-priced over the past two seasons:
The return of Davis has unsurprisingly impacted DeMarcus Cousins, who’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -4.82 over the past four games. He has maintained a strong usage rate over that time period but has turned the ball over nine times in each of the past two games. He has a much tougher matchup today than Davis, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.57 on DraftKings.
Meanwhile, Jrue Holiday has kept on rolling, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.99 on DraftKings over his past 10 games:
He’s playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment, seeing at least 38 in all but one game over his past 11, and he’s averaged 1.04 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s likely still underpriced on DraftKings, where his $7,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Rajon Rondo was a strong source of value for a while, but that appears to be over thanks to the return of Jameer Nelson. Rondo played just 18 and 29 minutes in his past two contests – the second of which included overtime – and his salary has yet to reflect his reduced role in the offense.
Finally, E’Twaun Moore is coming off a rough outing against the Nuggets but has posted a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over the past month on DraftKings. He looks like a solid cash-game value at $4,600 across the industry.
The Wizards are in a slight pace-up spot against the Pelicans – who are currently playing at the sixth-fastest pace in the league – and could be without Otto Porter for today’s contest. So far this season, Bradley Beal has seen a massive boost in value with Porter off the court, averaging 43.71 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.25 on DraftKings, where his $7,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
John Wall upped his minute count to 32 in his last game and has big potential today if he can increase that even more. The Pelicans have struggled with opposing PGs all season, and Wall’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.20 is the top mark among PGs on DraftKings. He’s still a bit priced down from his usual salary at $8,800.
Kelly Oubre will likely become one of the highest-owned value options of the day if Porter sits. That said, he’s averaged just 25.5 minutes and 17.38 fantasy points per game in two games without Porter this season, so his role could be a bit smaller than expected.
The Washington big man situation has been a mess recently, with Marcin Gortat playing 27 minutes or less in seven of his past eight games. It seems either him or Ian Mahinmi will have to play more to combat the size of the Pelicans today, but both players have been disappointments recently. Mike Scott has seen the bulk of the big man minutes for the Wizards recently and has scored at least 30 fantasy points in three of his past five games. However, he seems like a prime candidate for regression moving forward: He’s shot a ridiculous 69 percent from the field and 50 percent from 3-point range recently, and his salary has increased to $4,500 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Sacramento Kings at Philadelphia 76ers (-8.5) – 207 total
The Kings are in a solid pace-up spot today: The Kings rank 28th in pace, while the 76ers rank fourth this year. The result is a pace differential (paceD) of +3.8 for the Kings players, which makes them an intriguing team to target on today’s slate.
Zach Randolph leads the team with a usage rate of 26.6 percent and has been a really solid value over his past 10 games:
He didn’t play in the Kings’ last game, getting a rest day against the Raptors on Sunday, so he should see his full workload today. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.11 on DraftKings, where he’s still a nice value at $6,400.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has also been a solid source of value recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 100 percent on DraftKings over his past 13 games. He’s played at least 28.5 minutes in four straight games and owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.06 in today’s matchup. He’s priced at a season-high on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he’s likely still underpriced if he’s going to continue to play 28-plus minutes.
De’Aaron Fox is expected to return today for the Kings, which will ultimately create a logjam at the PG position when everyone is fully healthy. That said, that doesn’t figure to be a problem today with George Hill getting the day off for rest. Both Fox and Frank Mason III figure to get plenty of playing time against a Philadelphia team that has really struggled to defend PGs this season.
The 76ers were extremely shorthanded on Monday, with only nine players seeing action against the Denver Nuggets. They should get Joel Embiid back for today’s contest, and he’s in one of the best spots of the day against the Kings. They’ve been dominated by centers all season, and Embiid’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.31 is one of the best of the day regardless of position. He’s an awesome value on DraftKings, where his $9,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Dario Saric has been great recently and is coming off a 27-point, eight-rebound performance on Monday against the Bulls. His minutes should be safe regardless of Embiid’s status, and Saric’s production should be minimally affected: He’s averaged only one fewer fantasy point per 36 minutes with Embiid on the court this season. The bigger concern could be his salary, which has increased by $1,400 on DraftKings and $1,200 on FanDuel over the past month.
J.J. Redick has been playing all the minutes he can handle recently, playing at least 35 in five straight games. He doesn’t provide much in the way of peripheral statistics, but he’s scored the ball at an awesome rate over his past eight games, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +4.57 on FanDuel. That said, the Kings’ slow pace does make this a relatively difficult matchup for Redick, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.50.
Redick isn’t the only 76er with a poor Opponent Plus/Minus: Ben Simmons, Robert Covington, and T.J. McConnell all appear to be in poor spots today:
Simmons, in particular, will be tough to trust given his recent fantasy results: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -1.54 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. That said, he still has some appeal for GPPs at a weak PF position, where his ceiling projection trails only Davis’ on the slate.
Update: Embiid has been ruled out. Check out our NBA News feed for more analysis.
Cleveland Cavaliers (-1.5) at Milwaukee Bucks – 217 total
The final game on the slate could be the most interesting for DFS purposes, featuring the two most-expensive players on the slate in LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The Cavs have been a two-man show this season in DFS, with LeBron and Kevin Love serving as their only reliable options for most of the season. With no disrespect to LeBron, Love actually might be the better option of the two today. He has an incredible matchup with the Bucks, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.81 on FanDuel. Much of the Bucks’ struggles can be traced to their weakness on the glass: Their rebound rate of 46.9 percent ranks last in the league. Love has shredded this team over the past three seasons, averaging a Plus/Minus of +11.17 on FanDuel over his past seven matchups:
He destroyed them for 62.7 FanDuel points in their most recent matchup, and his $8,000 salary represents a significant savings from Embiid’s.
What else can be said about LeBron at this point? He’s arguably posting the best season of his career in Year 15, which is made even more impressive considering how many minutes he’s played in the playoffs over the past seven seasons. He’s been extremely impressive recently, scoring at least 60 DraftKings points in seven straight games, and his average of 1.67 fantasy points per minute over the past month is first on the slate by a wide margin. Given that he’s playing more minutes than just about anyone – his average of 37.4 per game ranks second in the league – it’s really hard to consider fading him at the moment.
Outside of the Big 2 for the Cavs, no one really stands out as more than a GPP play. Jeff Green is coming off a big game and has been surprisingly reliable recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel over the past month. That said, Dwyane Wade sat out their last game, and no one on the Cavs has seen a bigger boost in value in games without Wade this season than Green. Now that Wade is back and Green has been priced up across the industry, he has much less room for error today.
Tony Snell is questionable for today’s game for the Bucks, and his absence has had a big impact on their studs recently. Both Giannis and Khris Middleton have seen huge minutes with Snell unavailable and have turned those minutes into a lot of fantasy points:
Snell’s status will be key to monitor throughout the day: If he’s going to sit out again, both Giannis and Middleton should continue to see huge minutes against a Cavs team that has been very poor defensively this season. Giannis has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.13 on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent, while Middleton has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.29.
It’s nearly impossible to accurately predict how many minutes John Henson will see in a given game: He’s played 31.5, 20.0, 29.5, 26.5, and 21.0 over his past five outings. If he does see the higher end of his minute range today, he has a shot to be one of the better value plays at just $4,500 on DraftKings. He’s averaging 0.90 fantasy points per minute this season, and the Cavs have been one of the worst teams in the league against opposing centers:
Finally, Eric Bledsoe could be a decent buy-low option. He’s averaged just 25 FanDuel points per game over his past two outings, which has resulted in a salary decrease of $500 for today’s matchup. He’s shot just 38.7 percent from the field over that time frame, which makes him a strong candidate for some positive regression moving forward. The Cavs haven’t been nearly as poor defensively against PGs than they have been against wings and big men, but this still figures to be a solid spot for him given his paceD of +1.70.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
