The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a four-game main slate starting at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The two highest-priced options at the position on FanDuel are Russell Westbrook ($12,100) and Damian Lillard ($9,500). Of the two, Lillard has been the superior fantasy asset of late, averaging a +3.79 Plus/Minus with an excellent 70 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. Westbrook, meanwhile, has posted a -1.82 Plus/Minus with a 40 percent Consistency during that same time. Both have negative Opponent Plus/Minus marks today and face slower teams. Our Trends tool shows that they’ve been fairly similar over the past two seasons from a Plus/Minus perspective in negative Opp Plus/Minus spots:
- Westbrook: 55.67 FanDuel PPG, +1.4 Plus/Minus, 57 percent Consistency
- Lillard: 43.04 FanDuel PPG, +1.8 Plus/Minus, 60 percent Consistency
It seems like targeting Westbrook versus an awful Kings team is a no-brainer, but he’s struggled to be consistent in slow-paced circumstances:
He’s hit value in just two of his past six such games. That said, his worst performance was just 44.7 points, and he obviously boasts the highest ceiling among all players in the slate. The Dame discount is probably worth it in cash games, but Westbrook can always pop off to win a guaranteed prize pool (GPP).
Value
Both Manu Ginobili and LaMarcus Aldridge have been ruled out tonight against the Rockets, and in two games without those players and Kawhi Leonard this season point guard Dejounte Murray has led the Spurs with 32 minutes per game, increasing his usage rate by 2.1 percentage points and posting 33.63 DraftKings points per game. Even if he gets a couple fewer minutes tonight, his average of 1.05 DraftKings points per minute should be good enough to hit value at his excellent $5,600 price tag on DraftKings, where he comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Both Dwyane Wade and Hassan Whiteside have been ruled out of tonight’s contest, which should open up some usage all around the Miami rotation. Both Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson could get a bump in that regard, and in 18 games without the Wade-Whiteside duo TJ has increased his usage rate by 1.4 percentage points. The Heat have a tough matchup against a Blazers squad that ranks seventh in defensive efficiency this season, allowing just 104.1 points per 100 possessions, but these guys are just too cheap. Johnson is especially valuable on FanDuel, where his $4,900 price tag comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating. He’s the only PG today projected for 25-plus minutes with a Bargain Rating higher than 60 percent on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden is the highest-priced SG option on the slate by $3,900 on FanDuel, and he hasn’t played since Friday after sitting out yesterday’s win with a sore left knee. That injury perhaps makes him risky for cash games, and he also has a tough matchup against the Spurs, who rank 29th in pace and second in defensive efficiency. Still, he has a massive floor and hasn’t been below 50 FanDuel points in each of his past four contests. He was quite efficient in the first meeting between these teams this year, posting 53.9 FanDuel points and shooting 10-of-20 from the field. Overall, it is an interesting slate to pay up for studs: Westbrook, Lillard, Harden, and Giannis Antetokounmpo all have tough, slow-paced matchups. The public will likely flock to Westbrook against the Kings or a hot Lillard, which means Harden could be undervalued in tournaments.
Value
The value SG options are pretty atrocious today. There are only three FanDuel SGs projected for 30-plus minutes in Harden, C.J. McCollum, and Khris Middleton. People who really want to punt at the second SG spot could look to volatile options like Danny Green ($4,300), Kobi Simmons ($4,000), and Buddy Hield ($5,700). One player who does have a bit of minutes upside is Memphis’ Ben McLemore ($5,000), who has been impressive over his past five games:
Further, he’s the only SG option with a Bargain Rating higher than 75 percent on FanDuel; he’s at 90 percent.
Fast Break
The guy who could be undervalued in tournaments is Middleton, as the default roster construction will likely be Harden or McCollum plus a cheap option. Middleton scored 30 points last game against the Knicks, and he used 29.1 percent of the Bucks’ possessions while on the floor. He’s playing on three days’ rest, and he’s historically crushed against poor teams (opponent win percentage of 40 percent or worse):
Small Forward
Stud
Only two players today are $6,000-plus on FanDuel in Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,900) and Paul George ($8,800). The former has been excellent lately, hitting value in three of his past four games, and as usual he’s playing huge minutes. Additionally, Giannis has averaged 51.86 FanDuel points in 41 games against sub-.400 teams over the past two seasons. Given his high price tags on DraftKings ($10,800) and FanDuel ($11,900), that won’t necessarily hit value, but he does boast the second-highest projected ceiling on the slate. PG is the contrarian option for tournaments: He hasn’t been great lately, averaging a -2.60 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 40 percent Consistency over his past 10 games, and there’s definite blowout risk with the Thunder favored by 12.5 over the Kings.
Value
Two more Miami wings should be in play with Wade and Whiteside sitting: Josh Richardson ($5,900) and Justise Winslow ($5,000). Richardson has seen the biggest usage bump (+1.5 percent) without those players this season, and he’s led the team with 34.7 minutes per game. In a fairly ugly slate, those marks are quite appealing at a mid-tier price tag. Winslow likely won’t see that many minutes, but he’s crushed in his time of late, posting a robust +7.89 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He can fill up the box sore in a variety of categories, which certainly gives him appeal in tournaments, and he’s one of the few SFs who’s cheaper on FanDuel than DraftKings, evidenced by his 93 percent Rating on the former site.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay and Kyle Anderson could get a slight bump in value without Aldridge and Manu today. Gay has led the team with a 29.8 percent usage rate without those players on the floor this season, averaging a stellar 1.32 DraftKings points per minute. Slow Mo has been at just 0.81 points/minute, but he’s shown a nice ceiling of late, notably putting up 42.75 DraftKings points in 33.3 minutes against the Warriors this past Thursday.
And if you want to punt at the position with a low-usage guy, Corey Brewer remains just $3,700 on DraftKings and $3,800 on FanDuel. He’s played 29.5 and 27.5 minutes over the past two games, which the Thunder won. He’s fitting in well with the starters, and they’ll likely roll him out with a similar role today.
Power Forward
Stud
There are no studs on the small slate today. The highest-priced PF option on FanDuel is JaMychal Green at $6,200. Woof.
Value
The two Miami big men, Bam Adebayo ($3,500 FanDuel) and Kelly Olynyk ($5,100) will likely be popular options with Whiteside and Wade sitting. In two games this season without Wade, Whiteside, and Dion Waiters, Olynyk has led the big men with 32.7 minutes per game, and Bam has averaged a solid 27.0 in those two. Olynyk has been especially valuable in those spots, averaging 30.6 FanDuel points and a +4.6 Plus/Minus. At just $5,100 today, he needs only about 22-23 fantasy points to hit value. Bam needs even less, which is why he leads all PF options on the slate with a +3.4 Projected Plus/Minus. He also leads all PFs with a +3.07 Opponent Plus/Minus mark against the Blazers, who are beatable down low.
Fast Break
The PF position is incredibly brutal today, and only one player is currently projected for 30-plus minutes. That is Carmelo Anthony, who hasn’t been very good of late, averaging a poor -2.35 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 30 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. You’ll have to take shots on low-minutes guys, and maybe that is Memphis’ Green, who has averaged a +7.33 FanDuel Plus/Minus with an 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. Finding a guy who can merely hit value today is the goal at this awful position.
Center
Stud
The three highest-priced options on DraftKings are Marc Gasol ($7,500), Steven Adams ($6,500), and Clint Capela ($6,400). Gasol didn’t play Saturday due to rest, so he’ll be ready to go against a Bucks squad that has been atrocious against centers this season, evidenced by Gasol’s huge +5.62 Opponent Plus/Minus. Adams’ mark of +5.89 is even higher against a Kings squad that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebound rate, but he is questionable to play with a sprained left ankle. That takes him out of cash-game consideration, although this game does start at the 8pm ET lock. If he’s a late go, he could be underowned in tournaments in what is a smash spot. Capela is a tough one, as his minutes have been all over the place of late. He’ll have low ownership as well.
Value
Pau Gasol will likely be the chalkiest play of the slate. He has played five games this season without Kawhi and Aldridge, and he’s absolutely smashed in those, averaging 34.15 DraftKings points and a +8.7 Plus/Minus in 27.1 minutes per game. He has a solid +2.87 Opponent Plus/Minus tonight against the fast-paced Rockets, and he’s still way too cheap at just $5,700. His current +9.44 Projected Plus/Minus easily dominates the slate. He’s a free square today.
Fast Break
Adams is the best rebounder in the league, so if he’s out that would bode well for guys like Willie Cauley-Stein and Zach Randolph. Big man Skal Labissiere has already been ruled out, and WCS got 30 minutes of action yesterday in his first game back from injury. Z Bo could certainly rest and might even be likely to at this point, which makes WCS and Kosta Koufos appealing in that case. Kosta has averaged a +4.72 Plus/Minus with a 70 percent Consistency over his past 10 games.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
