The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday presents a two-game slate that begins at 7pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
Kyle Lowry is officially a game-time decision after suffering a sprained ankle on Wednesday. He costs less than Kyrie Irving on DraftKings for the first time this week, but he also bears more risk. Lowry told reporters at shootaround that his ankle is still sore and cutting on it will be difficult. Pain tolerance will be a vital aspect of Lowry’s availability and performance.
Irving has recorded double-digit assists in two straight games for the second time in his career, and the Cavs are essentially a two-man operation between him and LeBron James dominating possessions this postseason. Despite sitting the entire fourth quarter in Game 2, Irving produced at least 38.5 DraftKings points for the fifth time in six postseason games.
Although Lowry costs less than Irving, he’ll likely be hampered by the injured ankle. The less than $1,000 difference may not be enough to rely on Lowry over Irving in cash games. However, he presents a solid pivot play in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) simply for the likely ownership advantage. If Lowry is ruled out prior to the game, we’ll know before lineups lock, and that will make the decision easier in cash games to default to Lowry’s replacement in the starting lineup.
Irving: DFS Scouting Report
Lowry: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Patrick Beverley has exceeded salary-based expectations one time in four road games this postseason. In the three home games, Beverley averaged 34.0 DraftKings points. His salary has been reduced to a postseason-low $4,900 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel. When the Rockets have been favored at home this season, Beverley has averaged a +4.84 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 71.4 percent Consistency (per the Trends tool).
Patty Mills is expected to see an increase in playing time with Tony Parker sidelined the rest of the season. Mills started the last five games Parker missed during the regular season, and when he started against the Rockets in November, he played 34 minutes. He offers a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on FanDuel, and with coach Gregg Popovich implying that Dejounte Murray isn’t ready for more playoff minutes, Mills may be required to play significant minutes.
Fast Break
Cory Joseph: If Lowry doesn’t play, Joseph will likely start and be one of the most-owned players on the slate. If Lowry does play, he could be limited and split minutes with Joseph. When Lowry has been off the court in the postseason, Joseph has recorded a team-best 22.7 percent assist rate, and Joseph recorded 35.5 DraftKings points in Game 2 in less than 26 minutes.
Shooting Guards
Stud
James Harden was guarded primarily by Kawhi Leonard in Game 2, and it resulted in his worst performance this postseason. Harden might still be dealing with an ankle issue after spraining it during the first round. Also, coach Mike D’Antoni confirmed Harden tweaked his left hip during Game 2, and reporters confirmed Harden was battling an illness during Thursday’s practice.
If Harden is able to prevail through the maladies listed above, he’ll be a worthy bounce-back candidate, as Leonard contested only five of Harden’s 17 attempts on Wednesday. Harden missed a bevy of layups and 3-pointers — ones that may have been forced because of the injuries and lack of explosion. Even at his worst, he nearly recorded a triple-double while being limited to no more than seven free-throw attempts for the third straight road game. When the Rockets have been favored at home this season, Harden has averaged 10 more DraftKings points than today’s salary-implied point total:
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Norman Powell was thrust into the starting lineup in Game 2, and he played more minutes than DeMarre Carroll or P.J. Tucker. Most of Carroll’s minutes came in the fourth quarter when the game was well out of reach, which implies that he’s the low man on the totem pole and that Powell and Tucker will likely receive the lion’s share of the wing minutes. Powell has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games on FanDuel, where he costs $4,300 and leads all shooting guards in Opponent Plus/Minus.
Manu Ginobili is the cheapest shooting guard available on FanDuel presently projected for minutes (per the Player Models), and when he’s played at least 17 minutes this postseason, he’s recorded at least 13.3 FanDuel points. He’ll likely assume more ball-handling responsibilities with Parker unavailable, but it’s unclear if he’ll see a significant boost in playing time.
Fast Break
Eric Gordon: He continues to play more minutes than Lou Williams, who costs the same on DraftKings and $100 less on FanDuel than Gordon. In six games against the Spurs this season, Gordon hasn’t recorded less than 22.5 DraftKings points. He leads all shooting guards with a 100 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel over the past month.
Small Forwards
Studs
For the third time in five days, LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard are the clear-cut options at small forward. They are two of the three most-expensive options on the slate, and both of their salaries have increased by at least $1,800 over the past month. They’ve accounted for the largest monthly salary changes on the slate, and they offer projected ceilings and floors at least double those of every other player projected for minutes at small forward. Every other small forward has averaged less than 19 FanDuel points per game over the past month.
James has averaged 54.88 DraftKings points on the road in May since returning to the Cavs, and he’s the only Cavs starter to play minutes in two straight fourth quarters. The Cavs were ahead by over 20 points in both instances, and James’ baseline projection for minutes should hover around 32 minutes since he typically plays the entire second quarter and all but two minutes of the first and third quarters.
Leonard has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute, a team-best 21.2 percent assist rate, and a +5.3 percent usage rate differential with Parker on the bench during the postseason (per the On/Off tool). Those marks are similar to Leonard’s regular season performance sans Parker, and based on his per-minute production, Leonard would be on pace to produce around 53 DraftKings points per 36 minutes tonight — a mark he’s exceeded in four of eight games this postseason.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Leonard: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Jonathon Simmons costs $1,700 on FanDuel, and he’s played every minute of the last two fourth quarters. With Parker sidelined, coach Popovich will have to fiddle with the rotations. Simmons has spent minutes at power forward over the last two games, and with Parker off the court, Simmons has ranked third in assist rate at 16.1 percent.
Fast Break
Trevor Ariza: He posted 36.5 and 11.75 DraftKings points in the first two games of the second round, and if you’re going to fade James or Leonard on FanDuel, Ariza is the likely fallback option. He’s the only other small forward on the slate to play at least 30 minutes in every playoff game, and his salary has dipped to $4,700 on DraftKings.
Power Forwards
Stud
Kevin Love‘s cash-only profile was shattered in Game 2 when he recorded a -14.9 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 20.72 minutes. He’s still a distant third option on offense, but if the Raptors are able to keep the game close into the fourth quarter — a tall task considering Lowry’s condition — Love may supply more value in GPPs.
Love is the most expensive power forward on FanDuel and DraftKings, and he’s averaged a solid 38.11 DraftKings points when the Cavs have been favored on the road this season. Since Love shares minutes at power forward with James and Channing Frye, he’d require an outlier game and duds from the rest of the power forwards to likely justify the roster spot.
Love: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Ryan Anderson was guarded by the Spurs’ Danny Green, an offensive mismatch and one that allowed Anderson to record a team-best four offensive rebounds. It’s likely the Spurs utilize a similar defensive alignment with Leonard exclusively on Harden, which will continue to benefit Anderson, who’s played 35 minutes in two straight games.
Fast Break
Serge Ibaka: He and LaMarcus Aldridge have had pedestrian second-round performances. Ibaka is cheaper on both platforms, and he exceeded 30.0 FanDuel points in three home games during the first round. Ibaka has recorded a team-best 1.02 DraftKings points per minute with Jonas Valanciunas off the court in the playoffs, but he’s averaged fewer minutes per game than Aldridge, who hasn’t exceeded 30.0 FanDuel points in five straight games.
Centers
Stud
Slates that have included the Raptors, Cavs, Rockets, and Spurs have lacked traditional ‘stud’ options at center. Tristan Thompson has been the lone center-only eligible option to play at least 30 minutes in a postseason game, and he leads all centers on the slate with a 100 percent Consistency Rating over the last month. Deciding on a center may be as simple as selecting the cheapest one projected to play the most minutes.
Values
Nene‘s salary dropped to $3,900 on DraftKings, and he did not play in either fourth quarter of the last two games — both decided by at least 25 points. He was usually on the court ahead of Clint Capela during crunch time in the first round, but Montrezl Harrell has received those minutes due to the lopsided score and Nene’s ejection in Game 1. Capela has been extremely productive at home this season, and despite a significant increase in his DraftKings salary, he costs only $1,100 more than Nene and offers substantial value in cash games.
Fast Break
Pau Gasol: He’s the only center on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating greater than 60 percent, and he replaced David Lee in the starting lineup for Game 2. He’ll likely remain the starting center tonight, but that has yet to be confirmed. Gasol dominated the glass in his start, and despite missing 8-of-11 shots, he provided 36.1 FanDuel points in less than 30 minutes.
Jonas Valanciunas: Although he yielded several open 3-pointers to Frye in Game 2, Valanciunas could not be stopped by Frye on the other end. It was a mutually beneficial matchup, and Valanciunas has produced a +1.8 rebound rate differential with Ibaka on the bench this postseason. Valanciunas provides a 93 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings — the inverse of Gasol’s Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
