Friday offers a nine-game main slate at 7:30pm ET. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
This is the extent of my Russell Westbrook analysis:
Westbrook costs $14,000 on DraftKings, which is the largest salary in our database on either site. That makes his salary-implied point total 67.65 DraftKings points, or 19.1 points below his average production in three games against the Suns this year. In nine road games in which the Thunder have been favored and Westbrook has possessed a positive Opponent Plus/Minus, he’s averaged 74.53 DraftKings points on 100 percent Consistency in nine chances. When the Thunder have been favored on the road, Westbrook has averaged 72.19 DraftKings points on 88 percent Consistency. In closing, DraftKings tried to price Westbrook correctly, and it still might be too low.
Westbrook: DFS Scouting Report
Values
The Spurs have Tony Parker, Patty Mills, and Bryn Forbes available in the backcourt. The Spurs are playing their third game in four nights, and Mills was rested on April 2nd, which means he could play more minutes than expected tonight. Parker’s minutes may be reduced despite the limited options, leaving Forbes as the contrarian punt play. Among players presently available in the player pool, Forbes ranks second-to-last in per-minute production, making him viable if he plays close to 45 minutes. Mills and Parker cost the same on DraftKings and are separated by $200 on FanDuel. When Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, and Dejounte Murray have been off the court this season, Mills has led the Spurs with 1.16 DraftKings points per minute and a +0.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus differential on a per-minute basis.
Jameer Nelson has been ruled out, leaving Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay as the usual suspects. When the Nuggets faced the Pelicans two games ago, Murray provided 28.5 FanDuel points in 33.32 minutes and Mudiay registered 24.5 FanDuel points in 28.67 minutes; that means Murray and Mudiay spent time on the court together. That was necessitated with Will Barton, who has also been ruled out tonight, unavailable over the last five games. Here’s one more reminder that Murray can be utilized at the shooting guard spot on DraftKings, which may be the route to take.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving: For the first time since the beginning of February, Irving’s salary has descended to $7,700 on DraftKings. In two games against the Hawks this season, Irving recorded a +19.41 DraftKings Plus/Minus and a 33.3 percent usage rate — his third-highest mark against an opponent this season. When the Cavs have faced a team with a positive pace differential, Irving has averaged 43.6 DraftKings points on 75 percent Consistency. Irving ranks second among point guards in Opponent Plus/Minus today.
Dennis Schroder: In a game without Paul Millsap, the Hawks are road underdogs against the Cavs, a team that has fallen out of the top-eight in average DraftKings Plus/Minus yielded to opposing point guards in March and April. In 11 games sans Millsap this season, Schroder has provided team-high marks of a +3.5 percent usage rate differential and a +2.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus differential. As a road underdog, Schroder ranks fourth among all players this year with a +5.12 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 77.3 percent Consistency with a minimum of 20 games.
Update: Schroder is now doubtful.
Jrue Holiday: DeMarcus Cousins has been downgraded to questionable, and this is what coach Alvin Gentry had to say about Anthony Davis:
We’re not going to play (Davis) 40 minutes in the first game and then a bunch of minutes in the second game. I don’t see how that would benefit him at all. If we play him in the first game and he gets into the 30s (minutes-wise), we probably won’t even play him in the second game.
Holiday gets one of the best matchups for a point guard, and it’s possible Cousins sits and Davis’ playing time is monitored. Does that mean Holiday’s minutes get limited? We won’t find out until tonight since the Pelicans canceled shootaround. In the last two games against the Nuggets, Holiday provided 32.7 FanDuel points in 27 minutes in a blowout win and 43.3 FanDuel points in a game with a combined score of 265 in regulation.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Devin Booker will likely be contested by the Thunder’s Andre Roberson (per our Matchups tool), should he be cleared to play. Even with lackluster shooting over the past two games (14-of-46), Booker has contributed in every category save for blocks, making him a more well-rounded player of late. He’s also played at least 40 minutes in three of the last six games, a stretch that has included at least five assists in each game. If Roberson gets ruled out, Booker becomes an easy choice in cash games, and he’s probably fine even if Roberson plays. In the first three meetings against the Thunder this season, Booker converted 42.1 percent of his attempts with Roberson on the court and was able to provide 38.1 FanDuel points in the second matchup — a mark that is close to five points higher than today’s salary-implied point total.
Values
Josh Richardson failed to meet salary-based expectations once over the past 10 games, and his salary has increased a mere $300 on FanDuel since March 21st. You may be a fan of his recent work:
Tim Hardaway Jr.’s production has been erratic of late, but he’s seen plenty of minutes and costs $5,600 on both platforms. With Millsap and Thabo Sefolosha out of the lineup since the All-Star break, Hardaway ranks second on the team with 36.2 minutes, but his -0.9 FanDuel Plus/Minus doesn’t provide much safety in cash games. The minutes floor bodes well for Hardaway’s appeal in GPPs, and his salary has dropped to $5,600 on DraftKings, which is $200 shy of the salary of Gary Harris — the cash game staple.
Injury Update: Hardaway is now doubtful. Dennis Schroder is also doubtful, and Kent Bazemore has been ruled out.
Injury Update: The Knicks may be without Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis this evening. Derrick Rose remains sidelined, and Lance Thomas is listed as out. Since the Knicks are presently implied to score 90.75 points, someone has to benefit, right? Over the last four games, Justin Holiday has provided at least 21 FanDuel points on three occasions, and over the last 10 games, Courtney Lee has averaged a +5.23 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency, including exceeding salary-based expectation in eight straight games. Holiday is the significantly cheaper option with a higher projected ceiling. Lee’s consistency of late will translate well in cash games, and he’s averaged a +4.90 FanDuel Plus/Minus when the Knicks have been underdogs and implied to score fewer than 100 points this season.
Fast Break
J.R. Smith: Since the beginning of March, shooting guards projected to play at least 18 minutes against the Hawks have recorded a league-best +4.75 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Smith has averaged a +11.91 FanDuel Plus/Minus over the last five games — production largely tied to points and 3-pointers. The Hawks have allowed the second-most attempts from deep since the All-Star break, and when the Cavs beat the Hawks last time out, they set the record for most 3-point makes in a regular season game.
Small Forwards
Stud
LeBron James is the only stud on this slate at his position, and he’s been unstoppable of late. The Cavs are 1.5 games up on the Celtics for the top seed in the East with four games remaining. Because this is a home game for the Cavs, I’m less concerned about any of their starters resting and only slightly concerned about James sitting out the fourth quarter. In Wednesday’s 23-point win, James played 38.6 minutes, including the first eight minutes of the fourth quarter with the game already decided. In Tuesday’s 20-point victory, James played 37.1 minutes and the first seven minutes of the fourth. A Cleveland win tonight and a Celtics loss on Saturday would clinch the No. 1 seed for the Cavs, making this game important enough to play a ton of minutes; they can rest during the upcoming back-to-back on the road.
When the Cavs have been favored by at least 10 points at home this year, James has provided a +7.18 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency this season, and he hasn’t slipped below 53 DraftKings points in the last seven instances. Over the past two seasons when the Cavs have been implied to score at least 110 points as double-digit favorites, James has come over the top with an average of 51.39 FanDuel points on 86.7 percent Consistency. He costs at least $3,000 more than any other small forward, and based on the safety he generally provides, he’s worth the investment in cash games.
LeBron: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Kyle Anderson and Jonathon Simmons are the only viable wings available for the Spurs. They both grade out similarly on a per-minute basis when Aldridge, Leonard, Gasol, Green, Ginobili, and Murray have been off the court this season, but Simmons has provided a team-best +8.9 percent usage rate differential. Anderson and Simmons recorded similar per-minute production, and choosing between the two may be as simple as who costs less — Anderson is at $3,600 on DraftKings and Simmons is at $3,500 on FanDuel.
With Sefolosha and Millsap ruled out, Taurean Prince could be a popular choice after playing a career-high 41 minutes last night. His performance recently deserves at least attention in GPPs:
His salary remains relatively cheap, and prior to last night, Prince recorded at least one steal in seven straight games.
Injury Update: If Roberson is ruled out, Doug McDermott or Semaj Christon will likely move into the starting lineup. McDermott started the second half in place of Roberson on Wednesday and provided 19.75 DraftKings points in 32.22 minutes. The Suns have played at the fastest pace since the All-Star break, averaging 105.46 possessions per 48 minutes, and if McDermott starts, he’ll join the radar as a low-end punt option on DraftKings at the minimum. McDermott has averaged 0.57 DraftKings points per minute this season — a mark that drops to 0.54 when sharing the court with Westbrook. The second-highest Vegas Over/Under of 227.5 improves McDermott’s standing in GPPs.
Fast Break
T.J. Warren: If Roberson is cleared to play for the Thunder, Warren is a solid leverage option off Booker, and especially on FanDuel, where he comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. In the first meeting of the season, Warren exploded for 44.3 FanDuel points against the Thunder. Warren was limited to 24 minutes in the blowout loss to the Warriors on Wednesday after missing one game due to illness, and it’s unclear if those two are related.
Danilo Gallinari: In the three games Barton missed recently, Gallinari provided a +7.4 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 36.6 minutes. Wilson Chandler has been downgraded to questionable, potentially forcing Gallinari to play extended minutes. He played 41 minutes against the Pelicans on Tuesday and produced 41.25 DraftKings points.
Studs
In two games against the Nuggets over the past two weeks, Anthony Davis provided 56.77 DraftKings points in 28.45 minutes and 58.25 DraftKings points in 40.77 minutes. DeMarcus Cousins was absent from the first game, and even if Davis is limited to 30-35 minutes, this is a plus matchup for him. With Cousins off the court since the beginning of March, Davis has supplied 1.7 DraftKings points per minute and has led the Pelicans with a +4.7 percent usage rate differential. He carries risk since it sounds like they’ll be cautious with his minutes; if he goes to the locker room, I wouldn’t expect him to return. Cheick Diallo is a name to keep in mind the rest of the season, as coach Alvin Gentry plans to get a look at him over the final four games with the Pelicans eliminated from the postseason. Dante Cunningham usually starts when Cousins doesn’t play, but we could see a heavy dose of Diallo tonight and certainly tomorrow.
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
Values
David Lee is the most expensive option on the Spurs on either site ($4,800 on DraftKings), and he’ll be joined by Davis Bertans as options to start at power forward. Lee was recently rested without warning, and he’s one of the oldest available Spurs on hand tonight. He will likely get minutes at power forward and center this evening. Joel Anthony is technically available, however, he has played 34 total minutes since the All-Star break, which likely necessitates extended run from Lee.
Channing Frye or Richard Jefferson could get the start, and Frye’s salary remains manageable at $3,700 on FanDuel. He was limited to 20 minutes in Wednesday’s start due to the blowout, but like mentioned in the J.R. Smith section, the Hawks yield a ton of 3-point attempts.
Ersan Ilyasova is expected to remain in the starting lineup with Millsap unavailable tonight, and Ilyasova played at least 32 minutes in five straight games before Millsap returned from injury. Even with one dud over the last 10 games, Ilyasova has averaged a +5.31 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency. In the eight games Millsap has missed since the All-Star break, Ilyasova has averaged a team-high +7.5 FanDuel Plus/Minus in 30.7 minutes (per our On/Off tool).
Fast Break
James Johnson: He may start for the second straight game against his former team. Johnson is center-eligible on DraftKings, and in 35 road games this season, he’s averaged a +6.16 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 71.4 percent Consistency.
Kevin Love: When the Cavs have been favored by at least 10 points this year, Love has averaged a +9.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 76.5 percent Consistency.
Centers
Studs
There are enough players (Ersan Ilyasova, James Johnson, David Lee, Kevin Love, and Anthony Davis) with center eligibility on DraftKings that focusing on center-only eligible players isn’t necessary. Dwight Howard will get the benefit of no Millsap on the second night of a back-to-back, a situation that has bode well for Howard this season. When playing on zero days rest, Howard has provided a +6.68 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 84.6 percent Consistency. He was limited to 21 minutes last night because of foul trouble, which lessens the concern of fatigue against a Cavs team. In the two previous games against the Cavs, Howard contributed 33.4 and 37.0 FanDuel points — two points clear of today’s salary-implied point total of 30.4 FanDuel points.
Value
Dewayne Dedmon and Joel Anthony are the primary centers available for the Spurs, and Dedmon costs the minimum on DraftKings and FanDuel. He ranks second among projected starting centers in fouls per 36 minutes, which damages his potential ceiling, but he’s expected to play significant minutes. His current projected DraftKings GPP ownership is the highest among available centers, and he’ll likely be a popular play in all formats.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert: Derrick Favors may return to the lineup this evening, but even when Favors was healthy, he and Gobert shared the court close to 12 minutes per game. It’s also possible Favor’s minutes are limited or that he comes off the bench, preserving Gobert’s team-high mark of 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with Favors off the court since the All-Star break. Centers facing the Timberwolves have been extremely successful this season, and Gobert’s priced up to season-highs on both sites, which will provide a distinct ownership advantage in GPPs.
Gobert: DFS Scouting Report
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
