The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s daily fantasy slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday presents a three-game slate that begins at 7:30pm ET. The Hawks, Bulls, and Clippers are one loss from postseason elimination. Let’s dive in.
Point Guards
Studs
John Wall and Chris Paul are the two most-expensive players on this slate. They cost the same on FanDuel, and Wall costs $300 more on DraftKings.
In four games in Atlanta this season, Wall hasn’t supplied great results compared to his salary points:
When the Wizards have been implied to score less than 108 points as road underdogs this year, Wall has averaged 8.01 points below today’s salary-based expectation (per the Trends tool):
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Paul leads the Clippers with a +4.4 percent usage rate differential, a +2.8 percent rebound rate differential, and 1.44 DraftKings points per minute with Blake Griffin off the court this postseason (per the On/Off tool). He hasn’t recorded fewer fantasy points than today’s salary-implied point total in any of the five games in the postseason, and he’s played at least 37 minutes in consecutive games with Griffin sidelined.
Paul: DFS Scouting Report
The Clippers could be eliminated tonight, which increases the likelihood Paul exceeds his normal minutes. When the Clippers were eliminated from the postseason in 2015, Paul played 45 minutes in a 13-point loss and three other starters played at least 39 minutes. The Hawks have already blown out the Wizards at home, and in that game, Wall was limited to 31 minutes. Paul appears to carry less risk in cash-game settings, and because he’s cheaper on DraftKings, he may be the one who is higher-owned (Pro Subscribers can track ownership shortly after lock on our DFS Ownership Dashboard). Wall leads all guards on the slate in Opponent Plus/Minus, and if the Wizards are able to keep the game close, he could easily play close to 40 minutes — something he rarely did during the regular season.
Value
Isaiah Canaan will start for the second straight game. Over the past two games, Canaan has played at least 34 minutes and recorded at least 10 field goal attempts and 13.6 FanDuel points. He played every second Isaiah Thomas was on the court in Game 5. Even though Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg’s rotations can be scattered and unpredictable, Canaan is the one player who gives the Bulls a decent chance at containing Thomas, and that could solidify his playing time. He costs $2,600 on FanDuel, the cheapest salary for anyone on the slate currently projected to play at least 25 minutes (per the Player Models).
Fast Break
Austin Rivers: He played more minutes than Marreese Speights, Raymond Felton, Paul Pierce, Brandon Bass, and Wesley Johnson in Game 5 despite a minutes restriction. Rivers won’t start tonight, but he could have his restriction loosened. His salary dropped to $2,100 on FanDuel, where he’s point guard-only eligible. When the Clippers have been underdogs this season, Rivers has averaged 23.25 FanDuel points, which is triple his salary-implied point total today.
Shooting Guards
Stud
Bradley Beal has attempted at least 20 shots in every postseason game, and he’s continued to struggle on open or wide open 3-pointers, converting 8-of-39 such shots. Despite his slump, Beal has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of five games. Much like Wall, Beal hasn’t been consistent when the Wizards have been implied to score less than 108 points as road underdogs. That said, the Hawks are one of the worst teams at defending opposing shooting guards, and over the last few games, they’ve moved Dennis Schroder onto Beal for stretches. Beal leads all shooting guards on the slate with a 91 percent Consistency Rating over the last month, and he ranks sixth among all players this postseason at 39.3 minutes per game, fourth in field goal attempts per game, and third in 3-point attempts per game.
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Values
Gerald Green is expected to start for the fourth straight game, and his salary dropped from $3,100 in Game 5 to $1,700 tonight on FanDuel. He and Thomas are the only Celtics with an above-average usage rate during this postseason, and Green ranks second on the team in field goal attempts per minute. He won’t hold back when it comes to shooting. However, Celtics coach Brad Stevens limited Green to two six-minute stints at the beginning of each half in Game 5, and Green would not have met expectations even had he cost $1,700.
Rodney Hood costs no more than $4,100 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and over the last two games, he’s produced 26.3 and 25.0 FanDuel points. Hood was a non-factor in the first three games of the series, but with Griffin unavailable for the Clippers, LA coach Doc Rivers has relied on Luc Mbah a Moute at power forward. In turn, Jazz coach Quin Snyder has matched the Clippers’ small lineups by limiting playing time for Boris Diaw and Derrick Favors. Hood attempted 10 3-pointers and a team-high 17 shots in Game 5. Eight of his 3-point attempts were wide open, and if the Jazz are able to replicate those same open looks when the Clippers trap Joe Johnson and Gordon Hayward, Hood will likely be a significant beneficiary.
Fast Break
Avery Bradley: He’s managed to stay out of foul trouble while guarding Jimmy Butler, and he’s played at least 34 minutes in every game this postseason. All 40 of his minutes in Game 5 were matched to Butler’s, and Butler may need to play close to 45 minutes tonight. If Stevens continues to tether Bradley to Butler, Bradley’s playing time could exceed his projection in the Player Models.
Small Forwards
Studs
Jimmy Butler reportedly suffered a knee issue during Game 4, and it was apparent in Game 5 when he attempted one free throw in 39 minutes. Since the Bulls are one game removed from elimination, 45 minutes for Butler appears likely. Due to his lingering knee issue, Butler may be better utilized in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) and shunned in cash games in favor of Gordon Hayward, who has not struggled this series with Mbah a Moute on the court. When Joe Johnson has been on the court in this series, Mbah a Moute has moved off Hayward to help limit Johnson, which has led to a +2.1 percent usage rate differential and a +2.0 rebound rate differential for Hayward. The Hayward-Johnson pairing is one more reason Rivers may see more minutes tonight. Butler’s potential for downside increases Dwyane Wade‘s profile as a leverage option, but after he nearly recorded a triple-double in Game 5, he may see excessive ownership numbers due to recency bias.
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
Value
Taurean Prince has exceeded salary-based expectations in every postseason game on FanDuel, and he’s played at least 28 minutes in each game. He’s been more consistent than teammates Tim Hardaway Jr. and Kent Bazemore (although that’s a low bar to clear), and he’s the cheapest among the three on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Kelly Oubre: In Game 3, Jason Smith fouled out in eight minutes and Oubre played a series-high 24 minutes off the bench before fouling out himself. Smith is a game-time decision this evening, and if he can’t play, Oubre will likely see similar playing time as the backup power forward. He costs no more than $3,000 on FanDuel and DraftKings, and simply for the minutes he’ll need to play, he requires universal consideration. Bojan Bogdanovic may also benefit from additional minutes off the bench.
Joe Johnson: He’s the backup power forward, and when he’s been on the court with Mbah a Moute, Johnson has converted 56.5 percent of his attempts. He leads the Jazz with a 32.5 percent usage rate in the fourth quarter in this series, and he ranks fourth at his position with 25.6 DraftKings points per game over the last month.
Power Forwards
Stud
Paul Millsap fell short of salary-based expectations in Game 5, and for the second time in this series, he failed to record a steal and block. He was called for three fouls in the first half, which may have stunted his aggressiveness on defense. Millsap’s floor is close to triple that of the next closest power forward on the slate on FanDuel, and despite a regression in his production over the past two games, Millsap ranks second among projected starters in Opponent Plus/Minus. Due to the lack of viable alternatives at his position, Millsap profiles as a must-play.
Millsap: DFS Scouting Report
Value?
After Millsap, the power forward position gets tough. On this slate, value can be considered depreciated assets that may not fetch high ownership.
Markieff Morris has been assessed five fouls in four straight games. Since the refs aren’t adjusting to Morris’ style of play, he may have to be less aggressive on defense, and especially if Smith doesn’t play. Morris will likely see most of the backup center minutes barring foul trouble. If he does dial down his aggression, Millsap should be in for a field day, which increases his ceiling. If Morris can get to 30 minutes tonight, he can help anchor the second unit, and his postseason per-minute production should help him achieve near his salary-implied point total.
Derrick Favors was benched most of the second half in Game 5 with coach Snyder consolidating his rotation to seven players. Favors was on the floor to close out Game 4, but he played only 11 minutes in Game 5 as the backup center. He’s been priced down to $4,900 on DraftKings, and if Rudy Gobert gets into foul trouble or faces another knee scare, Favors will be the primary beneficiary.
Fast Break
Nikola Mirotic: He was marginalized in Game 5 with Wade posting a team-high 36.2 percent usage rate. Mirotic did play a series-high 34.9 minutes but attempted a series-low six shots. He’s one of two power forwards on the slate reasonably expected to play over 30 minutes, and prior to the Game 5 dud, Mirotic provided at least 23.9 FanDuel points in three straight games.
Centers
Studs
Rudy Gobert and Al Horford are the most expensive centers on the slate, and Gobert has been priced above $9,000 for the seventh time all season.
When the Jazz have been favored at home this year, Gobert has led the team in DraftKings Plus/Minus and Consistency:
Over the last two games, Gobert has recorded 37.25 and 40.75 DraftKings points, yet his salary has decreased $200 since Game 5. He did record an unsustainable five steals in the win, but he also played 35 minutes after missing two games in this series with a hyperextended left knee.
Horford has nearly recorded a triple-double in five straight games, and he leads all centers on the slate with 91 percent Consistency over the past month. He leads the Celtics with a 30.8 percent assist rate, a 14.0 percent rebound rate, and 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in this postseason.
Horford costs $1,300 less than Gobert on FanDuel, and the Celtics’ center is a solid option in cash games due to his ability to fill every category in the box score. Gobert is a worthy options on both platforms, but he’s already projected for higher ownership on DraftKings.
Value
Ian Mahinmi won’t play and Smith is a game-time decision. Without either, Marcin Gortat could be forced to play close to 40 minutes. Aside from Morris, rookie Daniel Ochefu is the only other plausible player on the roster capable of surviving minutes at center. Gortat hasn’t attempted more than six shots in three straight games, yet he’s exceeded salary-based expectations twice, relying on double-digit rebounds and six total blocks to pay back his salary.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan: He costs less than Horford and Gobert on FanDuel by at least $500, and Jordan and Gortat are presently projected for similar ownership. Jordan has played over 38 minutes in two of the last three games, but he has struggled late in the second halves of games. The Jazz have attempted the fewest number of shots inside of five feet of the rim in this postseason, and Jordan hasn’t recorded more than one block in four straight games.
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
