Friday brings two slates of different sizes at 7pm ET. In its eight-game main slate DraftKings is not including the two late games — Timberwolves at Lakers and Kings at Warriors. FanDuel is including all games in the main slate, which is thus 10 games. Keep that in mind. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets
This game has the largest Vegas total on the DraftKings slate by nearly five points and includes two teams fighting for playoff inclusion or playoff seeding. It’s a battle of extremes: Since the All-Star break, the Rockets rank first in offensive efficiency, scoring a ridiculous 115.6 points per 100 possessions, while the new-look Pelicans rank fourth defensively over the same time frame, allowing just 101.3 points per 100 possessions. As you can see by the Rockets’ slate-high 118.75-point implied team total, Vegas is expecting the Rockets offense to win out in this battle.
The Pelicans have had mixed success against the Rockets this season (per our Trends tool):
DeMarcus Cousins exploded for 71.5 DraftKings points in that first game; Solomon Hill has been the next-best Pel against the Rockets this season, averaging 33.6 DraftKings points and an +18.2 Plus/Minus in his two contests. As you can see, Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday have struggled in this matchup this season, but their poor averages are brought down by a miserable first meeting in December in which the Rockets made an NBA-record 24 3-pointers and blew out the Pelicans. Davis and Jrue sat for most of the second half. If you take that game out of the sample, Davis has been solid:
However, this is just a weird sample of games. In the one game in which Cousins played (during February, right after the trade), Cousins exploded and Davis and especially Jrue struggled to hit value:
In their most recent game last week, Boogie was out, and Davis and Jrue predictable played better:
This is a tough spot to analyze, but there is upside, especially considering the Rockets rank fourth in pace, averaging 102.2 possessions per 48 minutes, and 14th in defensive efficiency, allowing 105.7 points/100. Further, centers remain a nice play to attack them:
Davis: DFS Scouting Report
Cousins: DFS Scouting Report
For Houston, James Harden seems to be back in his groove after briefly stumbling in production after the acquisition of Lou Williams. Over his last 10 games, Harden has averaged a +6.11 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency.
Harden is in a price tier of his own at the SG position . . .
. . . but it’s hard to argue he isn’t worth paying up for: Even against this revamped Pelicans defense, Harden put up 83.0 DraftKings points and 73.3 FanDuel points last game (albeit it was without Boogie).
Harden: DFS Scouting Report
With the other Rockets, it’s the same old story: Their depth, while a positive in ‘real’ basketball, is their crutch in fantasy basketball. Outside of Harden, who’s averaging 57.27 FanDuel points per game against the Pelicans this year, all other players have averaged between 14.6 and 26.3 points; they all have a very narrow range of outcomes. That said, because of that narrow range, they’re typically well-priced. A couple notable exceptions include Clint Capela . . .
. . . and Eric Gordon on FanDuel . . .
. . . and Nene on DraftKings:
Point Guards
Jeff Teague has been solid lately, scoring 36.4 and 38.5 FanDuel points over his last two games and posting a 60 percent Consistency Rating over his last 10:
But really he’s mostly in play because he’s playing the Denver Nuggets, who rank eighth in pace, averaging 100.4 possessions/48, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.6 points/100. They remain the worst team in the league by a mile against opposing PGs:
He will likely be one of the most popular options of the slate, especially on FanDuel, where his $6,800 salary comes with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and 11 Pro Trends, which are available to Pro subscribers in the Player Models. Also, Pro subscribers can review the ownership of Teague and all other players in our DFS Ownership Dashboard shortly after lineups lock.
Tyler Ulis has an even higher Bargain Rating (99 percent) on FanDuel tonight and somehow is down to $6,200 after being $6,800 last night. That makes no sense at all, especially since he’s playing ridiculous minutes since the Suns shut down Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight to let Ulis run the show:
This is a road back-to-back for Ulis and the Suns, but the dude just turned 21 years old. He’s been playing massive minutes, and given the lack of depth on the Suns right now — especially at PG, ironically — Ulis could be popular in cash games. Further, he gets the benefit of going up against Isaiah Thomas, who ranks dead last in the NBA in Defensive Real Plus-Minus this season:
After that, we have quite a few PGs worth paying up for: Ricky Rubio versus the Lakers, John Wall versus the Nets, and Isaiah Thomas versus the Suns are all in incredible spots for all contest formats. Of the three, Rubio is the cheapest at $7,400 on FanDuel and has the closest spread (just six points somehow). All three have crushed these matchups this season . . .
All three could turn into blowouts, and Thomas has the #RevengeGame narrative in his favor. Perhaps the best way to choose between them is to sort by our projected ownership: Thomas has the lowest projected ownership on FanDuel at nine to 12 percent. (As mentioned in the intro, Rubio isn’t in the main DraftKings slate.)
Wall: DFS Scouting Report
Shooting Guards
If you want to pivot down from Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the guy to target: He’s easily second among all SGs in projected ceiling. Giannis had been struggling a bit, but he got things going again on Wednesday against the Kings, putting up 62.6 FanDuel points on 32 real points, 13 rebounds, and six assists. His stats from the past 10 games aren’t good . . .
. . . but the notion of ‘downside’ isn’t really important for Giannis when Harden is in the slate. The latter will be more popular in cash games and GPPs — again, the Rockets are implied for a slate-high 118.75 points — so all we’re concerned about with Giannis is his ceiling. His three games this season against the Hawks pretty much sum up Giannis as a DFS play:
Antetokounmpo: DFS Scouting Report
Labs writer Ian Hartitz wrote this in his scouting report on Carmelo Anthony (follow me here):
Melo has consistently exceeded his implied point totals against opponents with a win percentage of 40 percent or worse, though his ownership has been higher in these situations as well. It can be offensive to call someone a frontrunner, but in this case it’s warranted.
Frankly, Klay Thompson is offended. Against teams with 40 percent win rates or worse, Klay has averaged 32.62 FanDuel points on a ridiculous 90 percent Consistency:
And to put the icing on the cake, Klay has averaged a stupid +11.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 87.5 percent Consistency when the Warriors are 15-plus point favorites. They’re 17.5-point favorites currently. Klay is the true frontrunner (and not in the DraftKings main slate):
Thompson: DFS Scouting Report
The ownership for Klay and Bradley Beal will be intriguing. We have them both at 13-16 percent on FanDuel currently and both are in immaculate spots. Beal has put up great games against the Nets already this season . . .
. . . and the large 12-point spread shouldn’t be that concerning. In eight games this season as a favorite of at least eight points, Beal has averaged 39.85 FanDuel points, a +10.33 Plus/Minus, and an excellent 75 percent Consistency:
Per our Matchups tool, he has a nearly unfadable matchup:
Beal: DFS Scouting Report
Small Forwards
Andrew Wiggins‘ game log is fascinating:
After Zach LaVine went down for the year, Wiggins exploded with value: Despite his prolonged slump over most of March, he’s still averaging 37.4 minutes and a 31.0 percent usage rate in 23 games this year sans LaVine — that’s a usage bump of 2.4 percentage points. As his salary increased, however, he struggled to hit value — and, honestly, his raw production dropped. However, he’s now only $7,000 on FanDuel, where he has a 75 percent Bargain Rating. Whether you believe he is a frontrunner or just likes playing against the Lakers because of their history, it’s hard to ignore this:
I’m a believer in Playoff Paul George, and he’s not disappointed lately, averaging an impressive +7.64 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games.
He played a whopping 42.33 minutes on Wednesday against Jae Crowder and the Celtics and finished with 49.0 FanDuel points on 37 real points. His usage rate in March sits at 32.7 percent, and he’s averaging 43.14 DraftKings points in 36.2 minutes per game.
Oh yeah, his matchup is good: He’s at home against the Nuggets, who again rank eighth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency.
George: DFS Scouting Report
It’s hard to find a value at small forward today. We haven’t even hit on all the studs worth rostering, like Jimmy Butler, who has continued to crush without Dwyane Wade (per our On/Off tool):
Butler: DFS Scouting Report
For that reason, Brandon Ingram, who is in a tough spot against a revamped Minnesota defense, is worth considering. The Lakers remain committed to his development — he’s played 40 minutes in each of the last two games — and he’s responded with excellent DFS production:
He’s averaged an impressive +8.02 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his last 10 games, and his salary has barely budged: He’s just $4,700 on FanDuel today with eight Pro Trends and a 97 percent Bargain Rating. As mentioned often lately, guys with high FanDuel Bargain Ratings have been valuable this season:
Power Forwards
I came across this statistic last night on Twitter:
The Suns’ starting 5 was the youngest in NBA history tonight — younger than all but ONE of the Sweet 16 teams playing.
(via @EliasSports) pic.twitter.com/NWp7JUEyZu— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) March 24, 2017
Nineteen-year-old Marquese Chriss is certainly a large part of the Suns’ youth movement, and they’ve lately been letting him work through his mistakes — be it poor play or foul trouble. He’s responded with incredible DFS production, posting a silly +9.46 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 90 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
He’s playing on a road B2B, but the dude is only 19 years old. He does have a tough matchup against Al Horford and the Celtics today . . .
. . . but the NBA is a value-driven sport and he’s just $5,000 on FanDuel, where he has eight Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Jahlil Okafor is a game-time decision tonight against the Bulls, and if he’s unable to go then Richaun Holmes, Dario Saric, and reserve Shawn Long will be the only active 76ers bigs available to play. In three games this season without Okafor, Joel Embiid (injured), Ersan Ilyasova (traded), and Nerlens Noel (traded), Holmes has averaged 29.75 DraftKings points and a +6.6 Plus/Minus in 29.2 minutes per game.
Holmes has similar salaries on both sites — he’s $5,600 on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel — but note that he’s center-only on the former and PF-only on the latter.
Paying up at the position is tough today: Davis has to compete with Boogie, Nikola Jokic has to compete with Mason Plumlee, and Dario Saric has seen a drop in production lately. Julius Randle has a tough matchup against a Minnesota team that ranks 10th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break, but he’s also shown a really nice ceiling at points this year. Overall, he’s posted a +6.01 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency over his last 10 games:
In some of his toughest matchups of the year, Randle has thrived:
He has only a -0.59 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel against the Wolves, but the point is that even if you believe that number is unrepresentative of the Wolves’ current defensive form Randle still has upside on a night-to-night basis.
Centers
Paul Millsap has been ruled out again Friday with left knee tightness, which means Dwight Howard will likely be a popular play. Over the recent three-game stretch Millsap has missed, Howard has averaged 38.17 DraftKings points and a +6.4 Plus/Minus in 34 minutes per game. The Hawks haven’t been that great offensively without their All-Star forward — Howard has posted a putrid 91.5 Offensive Rating during that stretch — but they have played faster:
Howard has 36 rebounds over his last three games, and he’ll face a Milwaukee Bucks team today that ranks 27th in rebound rate since the ASB, grabbing just 47.7 percent of the available boards.
Al Horford has been quietly excellent lately, posting a huge +9.40 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 80 percent Consistency over his past 10 games:
He has really increased his assist rate lately . . .
. . . and today gets a brilliant matchup against a Suns team that ranks second in pace, averaging 102.6 possessions/48, and 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.8 points/100. Horford did not play in the Celtics’ first meeting against the Suns, but he’s crushed value in similar ‘pace-up’ games this year:
Myles Turner is affordable on both sites at $5,900 on DraftKings and $6,300 on FanDuel, and he has a great matchup against a Denver team that again ranks eighth in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency on the year. He’s at home today, and that’s important for Turner, as he has very distinct home/away splits this year:
Further, he’s typically done much better in positive matchups; he has a nice +2.18 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings tonight.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
