Friday brings a 10-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Brooklyn Nets at Denver Nuggets
This game certainly isn’t the most intriguing matchup in terms of real basketball, but it’s definitely one to target in DFS because of the extremely high Vegas total of 234 points. Our Trends database goes back three years, and there have been only 69 players to play in a game with a total this high — that’s 0.09 percent of the entire database. A game this juicy doesn’t come around too often.
Interestingly, players in these games haven’t done very well:
However, that’s mostly due to the Warriors, who have played in each of these games and have seen their high-salaried players bust:
Players from this game could disappoint tonight — the Nets are notorious for playing their players all below 30 minutes — but there’s no denying that it’s a fantastic spot: The Nets and Nuggets rank first and fifth in pace, averaging 103.7 and 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes, and 28th and 30th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.3 and 110.0 points per 100 possessions. The Kings, who started “NBA players” last night, put up 116 points on the Nuggets with ease.
As mentioned however, the Nets rarely given any one player 30-plus minutes of action outside of Brook Lopez. However, Jeremy Lin is back tonight for the Nets and will reportedly get the starting nod. He’s played in only 12 games this year, and while he’s seen 30-plus minutes in only three of those games . . .
. . . the upside is certainly there, especially against a Denver team that remains league-worst against PGs this season.
Every position has had very positive success this year versus Brooklyn:
That said, this rotation is a little in flux currently: Stud big man Nikola Jokic played only 25.6 minutes last night against the Kings and actually played less minutes than newly-acquired center Mason Plumlee in the first half despite Jokic being a -1 on the court to Plumlee’s -15. There’s no doubting the upside of any player, and especially Jokic, getting 30-plus minutes against the Nets, but coach Mike Malone has not held to very strong rotation patterns.
The wings, specifically Gary Harris and Will Barton, might be the only Nuggets to be a solid bet to hit that 30 minute mark. Harris has taken 19 and 17 shots over his last two games, and Barton continues to play well off the bench, averaging a +7.96 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his last 10. Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari should be in the high 20s in terms of minutes, but you can see the issue here: The Nuggets, electing not to trade any of their wings, have a lot of mouths to feed. That could be problematic, even with a 234 total and even against Brooklyn.
Among the guards, it’s clear that Jameer Nelson is going to retain his current role for the time being. Despite getting Emmanuel Mudiay back and rookie Jamal Murray playing well, Nelson still got 30 minutes last night and put up 34.8 FD points. That might have been a little fluky of a performance — he had five steals against a newly-formed Kings offense — but if you want to take a PG versus the Nets, Nelson is the guy to take.
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook is the most expensive player in the entire slate by $1,800 on FD, but he’s facing the Lakers and the Thunder just traded away his backup point guard. Russ doesn’t need any help or additional opportunities, but he has averaged 59.3 DK points in 34.6 minutes per game without Cameron Payne available this season. Westbrook absolutely dominated the Lakers in their first two meetings this year, putting up 67.0 and 79.5 DK points. The former UCLA stud has balled out against LA over the past three seasons:
Do you need any more reasons to play Westbrook? Fine, one more: The Lakers rank seventh in pace, averaging 100.6 possessions per 48 minutes, and 29th in defensive efficiency, allowing 110.3 points per 100 possessions.
If you want to pivot down just a bit in tournaments from the likely massive chalkiness of Westbrook, John Wall is also in an amazing spot today. The Wizards are currently eight-point favorites (the Thunder are 10-point favorites) implied for 112.5 points — the third-highest mark in the slate — versus the 76ers, who will be without Nerlens Noel (traded) and Joel Embiid (injured). Those were easily their best two defenders, especially Embiid, who has a +1.96 Defensive Real Plus-Minus on the year. Per nbawowy.com, the 76ers have allowed a 111.5 Defensive Rating with Embiid off the floor, which would be even worse than the Nuggets’ league-worst rating on the year. Wall is certainly better at home this year . . .
. . . but he also typically carries very high ownership. Wall could be a nice, under-owned GPP pivot in this 10-game slate.
Finding a value PG is tough currently (unless you want to roll the dice on Malcolm Delaney), but one situation to monitor is the Lakers backcourt rotation. Lou Williams, who was traded over the All-Star break to the Houston Rockets, has yet to miss a game this year, but we can still look at this rotation using our On/Off tool. When Lou has been off the court this year . . .
. . . not much has changed actually. D’Angelo Russell and Jordan Clarkson have been essentially the same players on a per-minute basis with Lou off the floor, averaging 1.0 and 0.7 DK points per minute. Still, it’s to be expected that both players will see a slight bump in playing time, along with Nick Young, who actually does get a slight bump in value sans Lou. Russell certainly has the highest ceiling among the three, but Clarkson might be the best value, especially on FD, where his cheap $4,400 salary comes with 10 Pro Trends and a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guards
Paying up for a shooting guard is not an optimal strategy in this slate, but Bradley Beal does provide a lot of minutes safety and is fairly priced against Philadelphia at $7,100 on FD. He has similar, although a bit less drastic, home/away splits as his backcourt mate . . .
. . . but again, the 76ers are essentially the league’s worst defensive team without their rim protector in Embiid. Beal has played 30-plus minutes in 13 of his last 15 games and needs only 29.03 FD points to hit value tonight. The Wizards did acquire wing Bojan Bogdanovic to provide a scoring punch off the bench, but it is unclear how much he’ll play in his first game with Washington. With Giannis Antetokounmpo facing the Jazz and DeMar DeRozan struggling of late, Beal could be a nice high-end target for tournaments at the position.
With Payne shipped out to Chicago, it seems like Victor Oladipo will indeed be the Thunders’ backup PG. He has already been playing heavy minutes . . .
and if you factor in a larger playmaking role with the second unit, his $6,000 price tag becomes reasonable on FD, where he comes with 11 Pro Trends and a 95 percent Bargain Rating. He’s averaged 27.0 FD points in his first two meetings against the Lakers this year, and he needs only 24.2 points to hit value tonight. He should see 35-plus minutes in this one assuming the Lakers keep the game within reason, and he’s a solid play in cash games.
People might take a chance on Delaney with Dennis Schroder out tonight, but it has actually been the wings in Kent Bazemore and Tim Hardaway Jr. to see increased roles without Schroder on the floor, and the latter will reportedly remain in the starting lineup despite Thabo Sefolosha returning to the rotation tonight. Schroder has yet to miss a game this season, but when he’s been off the court, Bazemore and Hardaway have increased their usage rates by team-highs of 4.3 and 3.1 percent.
Coach Mike Budenholzer has no issues with letting those guys run the offense instead of a traditional PG, and it’s certainly possible that will be the case tonight. None of these guys are playable in cash, but lean more towards the wings than Delaney if you want to take a chance with the Hawks.
Small Forwards
For at least the rest of this season, Jimmy Butler will remain a Chicago Bull. They got a little thinner at the 3/4 positions over the All-Star break, as they flipped wing Doug McDermott and big man Taj Gibson to the Thunder for Cam Payne. Butler will have to continue to play heavy minutes on the wing, and he has a very positive matchup tonight versus a Phoenix team that ranks third in pace, averaging 102.0 possessions/48, and 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.0 points/100. In their first meeting, Jimmy struggled, scoring only 34.6 FD points, but he’s now cheaper at $9,300 and the Suns are without solid wing defender P.J. Tucker, who was shipped up to Toronto. Butler will be guarded mostly by T.J. Warren, and he can certainly take advantage of that matchup.
The 76ers are quite thin right now and will likely have to play their available players heavy minutes tonight versus the Wizards. Robert Covington has been an incredible DFS asset lately:
Over his last 10 games, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of 10 contests and has averaged a +8.67 FD Plus/Minus. Without Embiid on the court this year, Covington has led the current members of the team with 29.6 DK points and a +5.3 Plus/Minus in 30.8 minutes per game. And that doesn’t even factor in the absence of guys like Noel and Ersan Ilyasova, who was traded to the Hawks over ASB. Washington has been one of the best teams in the NBA in 2017, but Covington brings a lot safety with his minute projection and role.
Gordon Hayward leads all SFs on DraftKings with a +4.10 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Bucks, who continue to struggle defending SFs despite Jabari Parker being out for the year.
Rodney Hood is set to return to the Jazz tonight, but he’ll likely cut into the value of guys like Joe Ingles and Alec Burks as opposed to Hayward. The first-time All Star has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games and averaged a +4.40 DK Plus/Minus over that time frame. He is especially affordable on DK, where his $7,300 salary comes with 11 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Power Forwards
With Embiid and Noel out for the 76ers this year, Dario Saric has played very well, averaging 27.0 DK points and a +7.3 Plus/Minus in 27.8 minutes per game. And again, that doesn’t include the fact that Ilyasova — Saric’s biggest competitor for minutes at the PF spot — is now in Atlanta. Saric is a very solid bet for 30-plus minutes and high usage in this game, and he remains too cheap, especially on FD, where his $6,200 salary comes with 11 Pro Trends and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He also boasts a +3.03 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Wizards, who rank 25th in defensive rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 75.4 percent of those available boards. Even in a tough one-on-one matchup against Markieff Morris . . .
. . . Saric should still be very chalky given the state of the 76ers.
The Chicago frontcourt rotation should be quite interesting tonight. In two games this season without Taj Gibson, it was Butler and center Robin Lopez who crushed value, posting DK Plus/Minuses of +9.7 and +16.5.
However, Bobby Portis has been given some chances lately . . .
. . . and the Bulls will also be without McDermott. Portis is not guaranteed minutes — they could surprise us all and play Nikola Mirotic instead — but he’s also only $4,200 on FD, where he comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating. He needs just 16.3 points to hit value; that seems reasonable.
Dirk Nowitzki is a power forward on FD and a center on DK; he’s a better value on the latter site at $5,500, but be aware of the site differences. With Andrew Bogut shipped up to Philly and Noel not yet with the team, Dirk will likely have to start at center tonight versus the Timberwolves and play 30-ish minutes. He was very good prior to the All-Star break, averaging an impressive +6.73 DK Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
Minnesota has a lot of defensive potential, but they haven’t yet realized it this year: They rank 23rd in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.3 points/100. None of their frontcourt starters have proven to be solid defensively, and especially at protecting the rim.
Centers
I guess we’re going back to Philly. Jahlil Okafor has very little competition for minutes at the center position tonight with Embiid out and Noel traded, and you’d have to think that the 76ers would now focus on rehabbing the big man’s value around the league. Looking again at the on/off query . . .
. . . Okafor has averaged 24.8 DK points and a +3.0 Plus/Minus in 25.2 minutes per game without those two guys. He has increased his usage rate by 1.6 percent, and that could go up even more with other guys like Ilyasova gone and if the 76ers choose to feature Okafor offensively. He’s not a sexy play by any means, but he’s also only $4,5000 on FD, where he comes with a +1.60 Opponent Plus/Minus and a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Marcin Gortat was back! And then he disappointed in the last two games prior to ASB:
Still, despite those two subpar games, he’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games and averaged a ridiculous +8.50 DK Plus/Minus over that time frame. He gets an absolutely brilliant matchup against the Embiid-less 76ers, who have allowed a robust +4.52 Opponent Plus/Minus to the center position this season. Philly has struggled to rebound the ball: They rank 24th in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 48.6 percent of the available boards. Gortat is an absolute steal at just $6,400 DK, where he comes with 10 Pro Trends.
If you want to pay up for a center, Karl-Anthony Towns faces a Dallas team that ranks dead last in rebound rate on the year, grabbing only 46.3 percent of the available boards, and will be without Bogut down low. He’s averaged 49.75 DK points against them this season, including a 62.75-point game in early January.
He dropped 51.8 FD points in his last game before the ASB and has massive upside again in this affair. Harrison Barnes will have his hands full:
Good luck!
News Updates
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