Friday brings an eight-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Houston Rockets at Orlando Magic
This game has the highest Vegas total on the slate at 223.5, and of the four games with a total of 214 or higher this is the only one with a single-digit spread. The Rockets are on the second leg of a back-to-back, but they’ve been playing well and are currently on a six-game winning streak. The Magic have struggled, losing three of their last four, and their current 109-point implied total is four points higher than their final marks in those losses.
Per ESPN’s Royce Young:
Harden in his 3 games vs OKC (Andre Roberson) this season: 20.0 ppg on 16-55 (29%), 12.3 apg + 6.6 turns. (Also, I’m fully aware he’s 2-1.)
— Royce Young (@royceyoung) January 6, 2017
That was in response to James Harden‘s ‘poor’ game in which he scored ‘only’ 26 real points on 6-of-16 shooting and had six turnovers. Still, the dude had eight rebounds, 12 assists, a steal, a block, and seven 3-pointers — 51.6 FD points in total. Even Harden’s ‘poor’ games are ridiculously impressive. He’s the most expensive player in the slate tonight, and he’s playing on a back-to-back and with a below-average -0.06 FD Opponent Plus/Minus. However, this D’Antoni version of Harden has shown that back-to-backs . . .
. . . and poor matchups don’t really matter:
Per our Trends tool, Harden surpasses his baseline FD Plus/Minus of +5.54 in both situations. Again, ridiculous.
As highlighted by both my NBA correlations piece and Bill Monighetti’s scouting report on Harden, the Rockets go as he goes. Of note, the main Rox you’d want in DFS — Montrezl Harrell, Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon, Ryan Anderson, and Patrick Beverley — all have higher Bargain Ratings on FanDuel except for Bev, whose low $5,400 salary comes with seven Pro Trends and an 86 percent DK Bargain Rating. All of these guys have average to below-average Opponent Plus/Minus values on both sites, but the Rockets are currently implied to score 114.5 points — the third-highest mark in the slate — and, again, the Rockets follow Harden. All but Bev missed value last game against the Thunder, but they could be in line to all hit value tonight if Harden’s back-to-back trend continues.
The Magic are priced very differently across the two sites, and they have mediocre Opponent Plus/Minus marks. Evan Fournier returned to action last game but struggled against the Hawks’ top-five defense, scoring only 16.7 FD points in 29.5 minutes of action. He has a better one-on-one matchup versus Harden, but he could certainly tire out guarding him on the other end of the court. Still, his +1.22 FD Opponent Plus/Minus is worth pursuing in guaranteed prize pools, given his reasonable $6,000 salary. Serge Ibaka missed value for the first time in seven games last outing, and that highlights a notable trend (per the On/Off tool): Ibaka has averaged 5.2 fewer DK points and a -1.3 Plus/Minus differential in games with Fournier in the lineup.
Most of the players, in fact, have highly negative with/without Fournier splits:
These guys will likely rebound in value eventually, but they are possibly overpriced now. Nikola Vucevic and Aaron Gordon have both been hot lately and are worth rostering in GPPs, but note their volatility with Fournier playing.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall is the highest-priced PG at $9,700 FD, but he’s been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games and averaging a +3.97 Plus/Minus over his last nine. He’s been above 41 FD points in those six games and hasn’t been below 31 minutes in any of his last 15. He’s projected for 37.0 minutes and a 29.7 usage rate against the Wolves. He brings immense safety at the position. Ricky Rubio has been a solid defender his entire career, but he’s actually posted poor defensive numbers against opposing ball-handlers this season:
However, Rubio’s struggles likely have more to do with his secondary help: The Wolves currently rank 24th in defensive efficiency, allowing a poor 107.5 points per 100 possessions. The Wizards are currently five-point home favorites implied for 108.25 points.
Value
Malcolm Brogdon has been excellent as the Bucks’ starting PG:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games and averaged a robust +9.15 Plus/Minus during that time. He’s projected to get the start again today, and he has a nice matchup against the Knicks’ Derrick Rose, who owns a poor -1.87 Defensive Real Plus/Minus. FD has been slow to adjust Brogdon’s salary, and he currently sits at only $4,600 and has a large +4.84 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and a 99 percent Bargain Rating. The Bucks are currently 5.5-point favorites implied for 109.5 points. Use Brogdon with confidence.
Leverage Play
The two PGs with the highest Opponent Plus/Minus values are Goran Dragic and Kyrie Irving. Dragic has a 90 percent Bargain Rating on FD, whereas Kyrie is a better value on DK with his 95 percent Bargain Rating. Adjust your exposure accordingly, but definitely target these matchups against the Lakers and Nets. They’re both in the bottom four in terms of defensive efficiency on the season, and they’ve both been teams to target at the PG position:
Dragic put up a merely average performance last outing versus the Lakers, while Kyrie was on quite a tear before being out for the last week, putting up four 50-plus FD outings in his last seven games. Kyrie will likely have higher ownership because of his matchup against the Nets, but Dragic’s matchup is just as enticing.
Shooting Guard
Stud
On Twitter, I tweeted out the following statement/question after Giannis Antetokounmpo hit a Dirk-like fadeaway jumper at the buzzer to bury the very Knicks he’ll face again tonight: “Giannis over/under 7 career MVPs.” Some of the responses: “0.” “While playing in Milwaukee? Under.” “Under. WAAAAY under.” “Calm down man seriously.”
The fact that I set the line at seven MVPs and got real responses instead of people immediately noticing the hyperbole says everything you need to know about Giannis. He’s a flat-out stud. He put up 53.6 FD points last game versus these Knicks and has averaged a ridiculous +7.60 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine games. He’s currently the No. 1 SG in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a position-high +6.46 Projected Plus/Minus and 13 Pro Trends.
Value
J.J. Redick has put up 26.25 and 27.50 DK points in the past two games sans Chris Paul in 37.17 and 34.10 minutes of action. He provides much-needed shooting in the Paul-less Clippers lineup, and he has responded with 13 and 14 field-goal attempts in his last two. Paul is currently doubtful to play tonight, and the Clippers are 1.5-point road favorites implied to score 105 points versus the Kings. Redick has an elite matchup against Ben McLemore, who has been poor defensively this season and pretty much his entire career:
Redick roasts people on off-ball screens, and McLemore has proven incapable of defending those situations at a high level. Redick is only $4,400 FD, where he has a high +4.82 Projected Plus/Minus and a 98 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Bradley Beal faces the Wolves tonight, who are fresh off of allowing 39.5 DK points to Philly’s Robert Covington. Beal has been excellent in his last two games, scoring 40.0 and 38.8 DK points in 35.3 minutes of action against tough Mavericks and Rockets matchups. He has a much easier matchup tonight against Minnesota’s Zach LaVine, who ranks 84th out of 86 eligible PGs with a -2.91 DRPM. (He’s a PG in ESPN’s RPM rankings.) LaVine has allowed opponents to shoot 37.8 percent from the 3-point line, and Beal is having a career year from that area so far, making 38.9 percent of his attempts for an average of 2.8 3-pointers per game. Beal has the second-highest projected floor among all DK SGs at 20.3 points, and he’s projected for a solid 35.8 minutes tonight.
Small Forward
Stud
Carmelo Anthony dropped 55.7 FD points in 36.9 minutes of action against these same Bucks last game. He has a nice matchup against Jabari Parker, who has taken a big offensive leap this season but still struggles on the defensive end of the floor:
Melo has posted a +4.05 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine games, most of which came without Kristaps Porzingis in the lineup. While Kristaps’ return seems like a negative for Melo — it’s technically a mixed bag, as Melo has averaged 0.4 fewer DK points without Porzingis but a +1.2 Plus/Minus differential — it’s a net positive for the Knicks as a whole: Melo himself has a net rating 3.3 points worse without Porzingis. Melo might shoot the ball a little less than usual, but the chances of the Knicks outperforming their current 104-point Vegas implication greatly improves.
Value
Andrew Wiggins absolutely tanked DFS lineups last game, scoring only 16.5 FD points in 36.9 minutes of action against the 76ers. He’ll look to bounce back tonight against a Washington team that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency, allowing a below-average 105.9 points per 100 possessions. What makes Wiggins continually intriguing is his high minute total at a reasonable price. He’s only $6,400 FD and projected for 37.3 minutes — easily the most of any SF in the slate. As such, he’s currently the No. 1 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a position-high +4.84 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. However, note that he’s also projected for a position-high 26-30 percent ownership.
Leverage Play
LeBron James and Kevin Durant are within $400 of each other on FD, but LeBron is $1,100 more expensive than Durant on DK, which tends to be more sensitive to matchup. Although the matchups today are quite different, the Vegas data is similar for the Cavs and Warriors:
Both teams are currently 13.5-point favorites and implied for a high number of points. That said, if either of these games were to turn into a blowout, the Cavs-Nets game seems much more likely: The Nets play at the fastest pace in the league, averaging 103.8 possessions per game, and they rank 27th defensively, allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies rank 28th in pace and second in defensive efficiency. Both LeBron and Durant have their pros and cons, and their 61.5 and 60.9-point projected DK ceilings are worth pursuing in GPPs.
Power Forward
Stud
No PF is priced above $8,300 on FD today, and the slate’s structure encourages DFS players to pay up for PGs, Giannis, or the two SF studs. That said, Kristaps Porzingis is set to return to the Knicks’ lineup tonight, and he was crushing before sitting out. He put up 47.9 FD points in 37.8 minutes in his last game versus the Pelicans, and he has a solid matchup tonight versus a Bucks team that ranks below-average in rebound rate. Porzingis has a nice +1.55 Opponent Plus/Minus on DK, and he’s a much better value there at $7,000. He owns a 97 percent DK Bargain Rating and nine Pro Trends and is likely to be a matchup problem for any defender the Bucks can throw at him (maybe Giannis?). Porzingis is projected for only 32.6 minutes after playing at least 37 in his prior three games, but there’s certainly GPP upside here for the talented sophomore big man.
Value
Gorgui Dieng has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games, averaging a solid +3.78 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He has an excellent +2.37 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Wizards, who rank 21st in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 105.9 points per 100 possessions. Dieng should start opposite Marcin Gortat, who has definitely taken a step back defensively this year at 32 years old:
Dieng tends to take advantage of slower defenders in the mid-range, and Gortat has allowed above-average shooting marks from that area all the way into the basket. Dieng has a fairly low 38.9-point ceiling, but he’s been incredibly consistent and remains reasonably priced. He’s currently the No. 2 and No. 1 PF in the Phan Models for DK and FD, and he has Projected Plus/Minus values of +1.95 and +4.65.
Leverage Play
Julius Randle is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, but he’s been playing excellent basketball lately. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games and averaged a stellar +7.84 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s been getting heavy minutes — he’s been above 35 in each of his last three games — and he’s projected for 33.2 minutes and a 22.0 percent usage rate today versus the Heat. He’ll match up quite a bit with James Johnson, who has scored at least 33 FD points in his last three games and should be a popular option in tournaments. However, it is Randle who boasts the higher projected ceiling. In fact, Randle’s FD ceiling of 48.2 points is tops among all PFs, even though he’s $1,200 and $700 cheaper than guys like Kevin Love and Draymond Green.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid creeped up to 29.8 minutes last game against the Timberwolves but is notably still on his 28-minute restriction. He’s projected for that mark today along with a high 32.16 usage rate against the Celtics, who are coming off an impressive 115-104 win over the Utah Jazz. Embiid has dominated as usual lately, scoring 42 FD points in each of his last two games despite not even playing 30 minutes. He’s had at least 23 real points in each of his last four games, and he has a +0.78 Opponent Plus/Minus today. He’ll start opposite Amir Johnson, who has been a solid defender throughout his career but is only 6’9″ and could have trouble in the post against Embiid, who has operated from there on 34.3 percent of his possessions. Embiid is currently the No. 1 C in the Phan Model for FD, where his $7,200 salary comes with a position-high +6.23 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a 95 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
Willie Reed should be a popular value play again today for the Heat, but look at Greg Monroe, who has quietly played excellent basketball lately. He put up 39.8 FD points on an 18-10 game last outing versus these Knicks, and he’s averaged a robust +5.98 FD Plus/Minus over his last nine games. He’s projected for only 26.6 minutes, but that’s right around where he’s been while hitting value and he’s projected for only two to four percent ownership. The Knicks have been poor defensively this season, ranking 25th in efficiency and allowing 107.9 points per 100 possessions. At only $5,500 FD and with an elite +4.83 Opponent Plus/Minus, Monroe is a nice contrarian option in tournaments.
Leverage Play
Karl-Anthony Towns didn’t begin his sophomore campaign with a bang, but he’s rolling now:
He’s coming off of a 49.5-point FD outing against the 76ers, and he’s shown a nice uptick in assists lately, dishing out 24 dimes over his last four games. He has a nice matchup tonight against the Wizards, who rank 21st in defensive efficiency and have allowed 105.9 points per 100 possessions on the season. The Wolves play two bigs, which means that Dieng should draw Gortat and Towns should get the smaller Markieff Morris:
Towns is $9,400 today on FD, where he comes with a +2.17 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
