Friday brings a nine-game main slate on DraftKings at 7pm ET and a seven-game main on FanDuel at 8pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
John Wall is all the way up at $10,300 DK and $10,000 FD, but he also gets the Brooklyn Nets, who rank first in the league in pace (104.2) and 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing a poor 108.8 points per 100 possessions. He has a massive +3.21 Opponent Plus/Minus and has been excellent of late, scoring 67.25 DK points last game and averaging a +7.09 Plus/Minus over his last nine games. The Wizards are currently 8.5-point favorites implied to score a slate-high 115.25 points, and Wall is projected for a position-high 21-25 percent ownership. There’s a reasonable chance Bradley Beal will sit because of an ankle injury, and when Beal is off the court Wall averages 1.40 DK points per minute, a slight increase over his yearly mark of 1.35 DK points per minute. The Vegas spread is concerning if Beal plays, but the last time the Wizards played the Nets they fell behind by 15 points at halftime before ultimately winning by five.
Values
The Sixers will be without Sergio Rodriguez after he sprained his left ankle last night, leaving T.J. McConnell as the only healthy point guard on the roster. The last time he started, McConnell missed a triple-double by one assist in 37 minutes despite possessing an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.69. Today, he claims the second best Opponent Plus/Minus among all projected starters in the player pool. With a conservative minute projection near 28, he’s presently the highest-rated DK player in the Phan Model.
Chris Paul won’t play, and coach Doc Rivers is “99.9 percent” sure of it. That’s good news for whoever replaces him in the starting lineup. With J.J. Redick officially probable to play, Raymond Felton could start, as he did the previous two games Paul missed with Redick healthy. The beneficiaries of the Paul and Blake Griffin injuries are noted in the image below. In the three games both have missed this season, Felton led the team with 34.1 minutes per game, but Jamal Crawford dominated the usage, and he’s the preferred target, especially on FanDuel with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. Crawford is not point guard eligible, nor would he fill that role in the offense, and that’s good since whoever starts at point guard will likely face Patrick Beverley. It’s not an attractive spot for Rivers or Felton, but they’re cheap enough on FanDuel to warrant a punt play in tournaments as the Clippers lack sufficient ball-handlers.
Leverage Play
Matthew Dellavedova will miss tonight’s game because of a hamstring injury, and Malcolm Brogdon will start. He’s cheap, but he costs $100 more than McConnell on FD and $600 more than him on DK. The offense will predictably flow through Giannis Antetokounmpo, and when Dellavedova is off the court Brogdon averages 26.7 FD points per 36 minutes. While 36 minutes isn’t off the table, it’s an aggressive mark. Again, McConnell has the best matchup for a point guard, but if you’re looking to differentiate your lineup without overpaying Brogdon is an option.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden will face a team without Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, and they could also be without J.J. Redick, who is officially listed as probable to play. When Paul and Blake Griffin are off the court this season, the Clippers’ pace drops to 93.6 possessions per 48 minutes and opponents average 110.1 points per 100 possessions, per NBAwowy.com. The spread has moved five points since it opened, and the Rockets are now 10-point favorites. Harden is the lifeblood of the Rockets offense, so he’ll likely get his. The main concern for Harden is stable minutes, and on a slate with a ton of value at shooting guard Harden is better reserved for guaranteed prize pools.
The Timberwolves have allowed the third-most points in the paint per game, and Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the NBA with 13.3 points in the paint per game. The Timberwolves are the only team in the NBA in the bottom four in field goal percentage allowed in the restricted area and field goal percentage allowed in the paint, non-restricted area. In 18 games with an Opponent Plus/Minus no greater than zero, Antetokounmpo has averaged an +8.93 DK Plus/Minus this season. The player card below notes how well he’s played recently, and it’s good enough for top billing for FD shooting guards:
He’s a point guard on DK, where he currently leads all point guards in projected Plus/Minus.
Values
Marcus Smart has played at least 28 minutes in each of the past three games, and with the small lineups the Heat use Smart figures to be on the court plenty. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games, and over the past 11 games he’s recorded at least four assists 10 times. Coach Bradley Stevens is using him as the true point guard in the second unit, and he can be rostered at small forward on DraftKings or point guard on FanDuel. Smart will start with Avery Bradley ruled out due to an illness, and his positional versatility and cheap DraftKings’ salary ($4,600) should lend itself to all formats.
Nik Stauskas is the emergency backup point guard for the Sixers, and he started last night with Gerald Henderson unavailable to play. Henderson won’t play again tonight either, and with Sergio Rodriguez also out coach Brett Brown may decide to bring Stauskas off the bench in order to preserve T.J. McConnell. Stauskas played a team-high 34 minutes last night, and his playing time should remain firm given the injuries in the Sixers’ backcourt. Much like McConnell, Stauskas benefits from the second-best Opponent Plus/Minus for projected starting shooting guards.
Leverage Play
C.J. McCollum will likely start at point guard with Damian Lillard officially doubtful to play. While he’s traditionally performed well without Lillard in the lineup and has already recorded 28.7 FD points against the Spurs last week, his new role has come with an increase in salary. McCollum is the second-most expensive shooting guard on DK ($8,100), but if you’re looking to leverage him focus on FD where he costs $7,100 and will compete with Harden and Antetokounmpo for GPP ownership at his position.
Small Forward
Stud
The Warriors’ slowest-paced game this year came against the Mavericks, a dismal 93.0 possessions. The dropoff in pace didn’t derail Kevin Durant‘s productivity, but it was the Warriors’ worst team Plus/Minus in a win this season, and they still scored 116 points. Durant led the team with 45.0 FD points in 35 minutes, and the only Warriors starter who didn’t play in the fourth quarter was Zaza Pachulia. The Warriors are presently 18-point favorites, and the Mavericks are an injury-riddled bunch who are playing their fourth game in five nights. The prudent move is to fade the Warriors in cash games. Durant leads all small forwards in projected GPP ownership.
Value
Carmelo Anthony has been close to unrosterable on the second night of back-to-backs this season, failing to exceed salary-based expectations in four of five such instances. He was ejected from Wednesday’s game, his second ejection of the season, and in the game following his first ejection (which was also the second night of a back-to-back set) he rebounded with 45.5 DK points. He presently leads all small forwards in Projected Plus/Minus, as his salary took a substantial hit after his ejection limited him to 17.75 FD points in less than 15 minutes of play.
Leverage Play
Over the past 13 games, Andrew Wiggins has been hit or miss, posting either 30.0-plus FD points or no more than 18 FD points. The former occurred 10 of the 13 times, but that still leaves him susceptible to an occasional dud. However, small forwards projected to play at least 18 minutes have averaged a +4.24 FD Plus/Minus when facing the Bucks this season, and that may have to do with Jabari Parker being assigned to opposing small forwards, which allows Giannis Antetokounmpo to shift to power forward and be closer to the rim. Wiggins is much cheaper than Carmelo Anthony on both sites, but he claims lower projected GPP ownership despite the more favorable matchup.
Power Forward
Stud
The Knicks-Pelicans game has the third-highest Vegas total, and the spread is less than three points, which should stabilize minutes on both sides. Anthony Davis has recently been shifted to starting center and surrounded by semi-competent shooters. It’s unclear if coach Alvin Gentry will continue to roll out Davis at the five against the frontcourt of Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah, but it should matter for Davis as the Knicks currently rank 24th in Defensive Rating, allowing 107.4 points per 100 possessions. Davis is always a tournament option due to his ceiling, but the potential for injury makes him scary in cash games.
Value
Gorgui Dieng and Jon Leuer are cheap enough on DK and FD to utilize. Leuer claims the higher monthly Consistency and a lower Dud rate, which makes him perfect for cash games. He hasn’t dipped below 20 FD points in the past five games, and he’s started the past three contests. Leuer is also cheaper on both platforms. Dieng has awoken recently, exceeding 30.0 FD points in the past two games while playing at least 34 minutes. Consider both rosterable in cash games.
Leverage Play
Trevor Booker‘s salary on DK has dropped to a reasonable $5,400, and the last time he faced the Wizards he posted 38.5 DK points in 31 minutes. Power forwards projected to play at least 18 minutes when facing the Wizards this season have averaged a league-best +3.48 DK Plus/Minus. Booker isn’t the flashiest or trendiest option, but he’s already posted a double-double against the Wizards this season, and power forwards have been a lucrative play against the Wizards this season.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has posted consecutive 50-plus DK point performances, and he’s coming off a triple-double. The best thing about Towns are the minutes: He’s played at least 30 minutes in 18 straight games, and he ranks third among big men with 35.2 minutes per game. He presently ranks second in Projected Plus/Minus among centers, and he provides the safest FD floor at the position. If you’re playing in cash games and don’t like the Joel Embiid–Jahlil Okafor pairing, Towns is as safe as they come.
Value
Although he didn’t have a solid performance against the Nuggets in their previous meetings, Joel Embiid posted 29.3 FD points. He’s well rested after sitting out Thursday’s loss, and there a chance Jahlil Okafor doesn’t play because of a hamstring injury he suffered during last night’s game. Less Okafor is a good thing for Embiid, who has posted at least 36 FD points in consecutive games while hitting his 28-minute limit both times.
Nikola Jokic has shed his foul woes in the last two games and played at least 30 minutes both times. He’s the cure on DK to Embiid’s $7,300 salary and 28-minute limitation. However, he’s still a dicey proposition as Embiid ranks fifth in the NBA with 6.6 fouls drawn per contest. I’d rather pay $100 less for Brook Lopez in cash games and enjoy some safety, but Jokic carries a higher ceiling than Embiid at a cheaper price on DK.
Leverage Play
Hassan Whiteside appeared completely disinterested last night. There were multiple times when the Hornets would grab two or three offensive rebounds on the same possession with Whiteside on the court, and he looked restrained when challenging shots at the rim. He had a great matchup and squandered it, failing to record a double-double for the second straight game. Injuries are likely playing a part in his recent downturn, but he has another great matchup tonight. In the first meeting against the Celtics, he posted 25 points and 17 rebounds in 37 minutes. He’s slightly cheaper than the safer Towns on DK, and after his last two duds his ownership will likely taper off.
Good luck!
News Updates
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