Friday brings a massive 14-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in the deep end.
Game of the Day: Spurs at Trail Blazers
There are certainly better games and higher totals on the schedule: The Nets-Cavaliers and Nuggets-Hawks games both boast Vegas totals of 220 or higher. That said, because of Tony Parker and Pau Gasol receiving the day off for rest, some of the best values in the slate currently come from this game.
Dewayne Dedmon is one of the best value plays of the entire slate: In the first game that Gasol and Parker rested, Dedmon drew the start and put up 28.5 DK points on a $3,600 salary — a +12.8 DK Plus/Minus. He’s actually $100 cheaper today and gets a dream matchup against the Blazers, who have been the worst defense in the league this season, allowing an embarrassing 110.7 points per 100 possessions. Per our NBA Matchups tool, Mason Plumlee has allowed 4.7 DK points over salary-based expectations to opposing centers this year. Dedmon has the top DK Projected Plus/Minus in the slate at +8.77 and also boasts a top-five Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.68. There’s a reason why he’s currently the No. 2 option for the entire slate in the DK Phan Model.
But let’s not stop there. According to our NBA On/Off tool, there are quite a few options on this Spurs roster minus Gasol and Parker:
Patty Mills crushed value even more than Dedmon did last game, scoring 35.3 DK points on a $3,900 salary. He’s up at $4,300 DK and $4,200 FD today but still has high Projected Plus/Minus values of +4.75 and +5.70. Opposing PG Damian Lillard owns a -2.47 Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM) mark this season, which ranks 80th out of 85 eligible PGs. Kawhi Leonard received the biggest usage bump without those two guys: He used a massive 39.3 percent of the Spurs’ possessions in that first game. That’s a bit optimistic for today — he’s projected for 34.4 minutes and a 29.72 usage rate — but he’s still a nice value at $8,000 on FD, where he comes with a +6.82 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 60 percent Bargain Rating. Finally, David Lee is probably a bit thin, but so is the Spurs’ current bench unit. At only $3,600 FD and five to eight projected ownership, he’s worth some shots in tournaments.
On the other side of the ball, unfortunately things don’t get any easier for Lillard and company. Parker and Gasol were easily the two worst defenders of that starting lineup. The Spurs have a great defense as a whole — they rank fourth in the league, allowing only 101.6 points per 100 possessions — but they have allowed only 100.2 points per 100 possessions and a low 50.5 true-shooting percentage without those guys on the floor. Portland players are fine for low exposure in tournaments — the Blazers are only two-point dogs, after all — but there’s too much downside with this defense to roll them out in cash games.
A quick note before we jump into positions: This is easily the largest slate of the year; 28 of the 30 teams are in action tonight. As a result, there will be lots of solid plays I’m unable to mention, so please reference our real-time updating Player Models frequently, and also keep tabs on our NBA News feed.
Point Guard
Stud
Stephen Curry is a very difficult player to analyze tonight. On the one hand, he’s only $8,000 on DK, which is his second-lowest salary ever there according to our Trends tool database.
On the other hand, Steph has really struggled against the Pistons over the last two years, posting a -3.98 DK Plus/Minus and hitting value only once.
It’s a small sample, but elite wing defender Kentavious Caldwell-Pope played at least 35 minutes in those four contests and often slid down to draw the Curry matchup. KCP is one of the best guard stoppers in the league, and he leads all SGs that average at least 30 minutes per game in DRPM this season. Curry’s night is largely dependent on whether KCP or Reggie Jackson guards him, although that’s probably a worthwhile risk in tournaments at his low $8,000 price tag. Steph is currently the No. 1 PG in the Phan Model for DK, where he owns a 93 percent Bargain Rating and 13 Pro Trends.
Value
We already mentioned Mills in the game breakdown above, so we’ll jump a bit up in salary and mention a guy who is pretty easily the No. 1 PG option in the FD Phan Model currently. Dennis Schroder has been excellent as a DFS asset lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games and averaging a +6.85 FD Plus/Minus during that time:
FanDuel has been much less matchup-sensitive this year, which is why Schroder received only a $100 bump from last game to tonight. He has a massive +5.34 Opponent Plus/Minus versus the Nuggets, who have been easily the worst team in the league versus opposing PGs this year . . .
Schroder is currently projected for 34.8 minutes, a 27.49 percent usage rate, and owns a large +5.17 Projected Plus/Minus.
Leverage Play
My fellow podmate Jay Persson said on Wednesday something along the lines of “If one of the Cavs’ ‘Big 3’ is out, the other two are locks.” That turned out to be a prescient statement, as Kyrie Irving and LeBron James went for 55.7 and 46.8 FD points that night against the Bucks. Overall, Kyrie has seen the largest DFS value bump in the two games he’s played without Love, averaging 48.1 DK points and a massive +13.0 Plus/Minus. His assist rate has bumped up by 11.4 percent in those contests, and Kyrie may have to handle even more of the offensive burden with J.R. Smith now expected to be out for 12-14 weeks. Love is currently questionable, but I’d be surprised if he played against the Nets: The Cavs are currently 16-point favorites at home. Kyrie has a +3.12 Opponent Plus/Minus and is currently the No. 3 PG in the FD Phan Model.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Of the top-five high-priced SGs today — James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, DeMar DeRozan, Bradley Beal, and Nicolas Batum — not one has a FD Opponent Plus/Minus of higher than +0.70 today. Given how many options there are across positions in this slate, it’s probably wise to spend down at SG. That said, if you want to pay up for one of these options to have a unique roster, look at Giannis, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games and averaged a +4.65 Plus/Minus during that time. He gets a Washington team that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency and has allowed 105.8 points per 100 possessions. Further, a metric like DvP or Opp Plus/Minus may not really apply to a player like Giannis, who plays almost every position defensively at 6’11” but plays mostly the PG on offense. The Wizards will likely put Otto Porter on him, which wouldn’t be a bad thing . . .
But really, Giannis is essentially unguardable.
Value
Josh Richardson has been playing massive minutes for the Heat lately:
I know, those FD point totals aren’t very exciting. However, there’s reason to believe Richardson could regain his shooting stroke: He’ll match up against Pelicans rookie Buddy Hield, who has been, um, generous to opposing SGs:
He won’t even show his face with metrics that poor. Richardson certainly brings risk, but he’s projected for 35.5 minutes and is only $4,200 on FD, where he comes with a +3.60 Projected Plus/Minus and a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Gary Harris will likely be a popular play (as will the Lakers’ SGs). Harris disappointed last game, scoring only 7.9 FD points in 18.52 minutes, but that was against the Clippers and the Nuggets got predictably blown out on the road. He had received 30-plus minutes in each of the prior three games and is currently projected for 30.1 minutes versus the Hawks tonight. That said, Nicolas Batum is an intriguing SG to pay up for in tournaments. He’s been quite up-and-down lately, but that’s certainly fine for tournaments:
He’s flashed a 40-plus point ceiling — a number he’s hit in three of his last four games actually. He’s priced up a bit today but is still expected to outperform his FD salary-based expectation by 5.13 points. Chicago remains a top-10 defense on the year, allowing 102.8 points per 100 possessions, but they’ve been slipping a bit lately and have now lost four of their last five games. Batum is projected for low five to eight percent ownership on both sites.
Small Forward
Stud
For more on Kawhi, see the game breakdown above. For more on LeBron, see the Kyrie section. Those guys are both elite options tonight. That said, if you wanted to take the risk on Kevin Durant and his 64.1-point projected DK ceiling at only $8,800, I wouldn’t blame you. Again, DraftKings has been much more matchup-sensitive in their pricing this year, and Durant has an awful -4.87 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Pistons. That said, opposing SF Marcus Morris has been very poor lately, as has the entire Pistons squad: They’ve dropped four in a row and seven of their last 10, including some huge blowouts. Part of that Opponent Plus/Minus for Durant is actually because guys like Jimmy Butler played about eight less minutes than usual because of the blowout. That risk always exists for the Warriors — they’re currently 7.5-point favorites on the road — but Durant has been immune to that trend this season:
Again, he’s only $8,800 DK and is projected for low nine to 12 percent ownership in GPPs.
Value
The two chalky value plays at SF sit within $200 of each other on FD: Kent Bazemore ($4,500) and Justise Winslow ($4,700). The latter went off last night, scoring 48.1 FD points in 42.18 minutes of action thanks to 23 points, 13 rebounds, three assists, and four steals. He’s projected to play 37.3 minutes tonight against a mediocre Pelicans defense. He’s playable in all contest formats. That said, I’d prefer the $200 savings with Bazemore, who is not playing on a back-to-back and is projected for a higher 22.1 usage rate in a better matchup versus the Nuggets. Denver just got steamrolled by the Clippers and now ranks 27th in defensive efficiency and has allowed 108.6 points per 100 possessions. The Hawks are currently four-point dogs on the road, but they’re implied to score 108.0 points — the fifth-most in the slate. Bazemore is the No. 2 SF in the Phan Model for FD, where his +6.08 Projected Plus/Minus comes with seven Pro Trends and a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Since we’ve touched on so many SFs by now, let’s go off the grid a bit and find a guy projected for single-digit ownership. Let’s discuss Andrew Wiggins, who is the latest Tom Thibodeau SF to play huge minutes: Wiggins has gone for at least 38 in each of his last five games. For DFS though, that’s a juicy stat, and Wiggins has turned it into fantasy success: He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games and averaged a +5.59 FD Plus/Minus during that time. Wiggins has a nice matchup against probable starter Matt Barnes, who has allowed above-average shooting marks nearly everywhere on the floor.
Wiggins is at $6,500 on FD, which puts him a full $2k above the value guys above. That should keep his ownership low, which means his 45.4-point projected ceiling is something to target in tournaments.
Power Forward
Stud
If you’re going to roster Anthony Davis tonight, please do so on DraftKings, where his more reasonable $10,600 salary comes with a +5.45 Projected Plus/Minus, nine Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. For reference, he’s all the way up at $11,700 on FD. After putting up two duds, Brow has bounced back in a big way, posting games of 34-15 and 31-16 over his last two versus the Thunder and 76ers. He has a nice matchup tonight against the Heat, although it may not seem like it by their solid 103.8 points per 100 possessions mark. This is where our Opponent Plus/Minus metric comes in handy: Davis is a PF by DFS standards, but he’s actually played 57 percent of his minutes at center . . .
. . . and a quick Trends query confirms that the Heat and Hassan Whiteside have been the most generous team to starting centers this season:
Value
Julius Randle, Larry Nance, and Tarik Black are all out tonight for the Lakers against the Magic, which means that Thomas Robinson will likely have to play 20-25 minutes again at the PF spot. He put 27.5 DK points last night against the Miami Heat on eight points and 12 rebounds, and he’s currently projected to outperform his low $3,200 DK and $3,600 FD price tags by 5.15 and 3.38 points. The sample size of the Lakers without Randle and Nance is only a small one game, but it’s probably not unrepresentative because of how thin the Lakers’ depth is. There’s certainly risk with T-Rob tonight — he does have an extremely low projected floor of 2.9 DK points — but someone has to play in the frontcourt and Robinson’s salary is incredibly low. He’ll probably turn into a chalky cash-game play at that price, although there’s definitely upside in fading him in tournaments on a 14-game slate in which the winning scores will likely be sky-high.
Leverage Play
In three games without Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap has averaged 44.0 DK points and exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 8.4 points. He’s had to play 5.5 more minutes on average without Dwight in the lineup, which is why he has a +7.5 Plus/Minus differential despite pretty much staying the same in terms of usage distribution. He’s been more efficient as an offensive player without Dwight — his true-shooting percentage has increased 10.3 points in those three games — and, while that probably will come down over a larger sample, it may not tonight against a Nuggets team that has allowed 108.6 points per 100 possessions on the season. This game has the second-highest Vegas total of the night at 220 points, and Millsap is currently projected for 38.7 minutes. He leads all FD PFs with 10 Pro Trends.
Center
Stud
For as much as we like to target centers against Hassan Whiteside, we also like to target them versus Whiteside’s opponent today: the Pelicans. Per our Trends tool, starting centers versus New Orleans have exceeded salary-based expectations by an average of 3.96 DK points and have come with only 7.1 percent ownership.
Whiteside is currently the No. 1 center-only option in the Phan Model for DK, where his reasonable $8,900 salary comes with a +5.95 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. He’s been crushing lately: He’s scored at least 40 DK points in each of his last seven games and has at least 13 rebounds in each of his last six. He leads the NBA in rebounds per game at 14.8, which seems like a problem for a New Orleans team that ranks third-worst in rebound rate this year, grabbing only 47.7 percent of the available boards. Because of value plays like Dedmon, Whiteside may come with reduced ownership today, which makes him an elite GPP option and one that is certainly capable of a massive 20-20 game.
Value
Dedmon will be a chalky cash-game play, but let’s mention one more punt play as an option for tournaments. T-Rob will be popular because of the Lakers’ lack of depth in their frontcourt, which also makes Timofey Mozgov worthy of a look. He’s projected to play 26.1 minutes and is only $3,200 DK and $3,500 FD. He also has a low floor tonight, but he does have an elite DK Opponent Plus/Minus mark of +5.48 and is projected to outperform his salary-based expectations by 6.65 and 5.97 points on DK and FD. He’s currently a top-three option in the Phan Model for both sites for those reasons, and while I much prefer Dedmon and T-Rob at the same prices, Moz is a fine pivot in tournaments over their likely high ownership levels.
Leverage Play
After destroying the league for the first couple of months, Embiid has fallen back to earth:
That said, he has still flashed GPP-winning upside — he had 53.5 FD points in 27.3 minutes two games ago against the Nets thanks to 33 points and 10 rebounds — and is currently projected for minuscule two to four percent ownership on FD. I know: That elite game was against the Nets, who play at the fastest pace in the league and have the 28th-ranked defense. But let me introduce you to Embiid’s opponent today — the Suns, who play at the league’s second-fastest pace and own the 24th-ranked defense. The Nets and Suns are not dissimilar and Embiid just crushed the former. He’ll match up against rookie Marquese Chriss, who . . . well, I’ll just end this here:
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
