Friday brings a nine-game main slate at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Game of the Day: Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors
This game boasts the slate’s highest Vegas total by 7.5 points, although it also has the highest spread by 5.5 points. (Quick aside: Jay and I broke down the Wolves-Thunder and Magic-Blazers games on today’s podcast.)
The Raptors especially are in a great spot going against a Brooklyn team that ranks first in pace, averaging 104.3 possessions per game, and 27th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.2 points per 100 possessions, but there’s definitely a blowout risk.
That said, in similar games against the Lakers and Suns lately, Kyle Lowry played 39 and 38 minutes and scored 63.8 and 43.3 DraftKings points. In the first game against the Nets this season, he played 33.7 minutes and put up 48.0 DK points against these Nets. The blowout risk is certainly a threat for cash games, but Lowry is only $8,500 on DK, where he has a +3.35 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 93 percent Bargain Rating. DeMar DeRozan has the same issue and had only 20.8 DK points in 29.1 minutes last time he played the Nets. However, he’s been excellent lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his last four games and averaging a +7.04 DK Plus/Minus over his last nine.
Brooklyn has been the worst team in the league at defending centers, and Jonas Valanciunas just dropped 50.8 DK points in only 27.8 minutes versus a more difficult Boston defense. He will like see low minutes — we’re projecting him in the mid-20s currently — but he has the upside to put up a big game against a terrible Nets frontcourt. On that note, Terrence Ross has upside if the game gets out of hand: He’s scored 50 points in a game before, and while that’s not a bold call I’m making he has the potential to put up a sneaky game in garbage time.
For Brooklyn, it’s hard to think about anything other than tournament exposure to the big men in Brook Lopez and Trevor Booker. The Raptors have been merely average on defense this season after losing rim protector Bismack Biyombo, allowing 105.7 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also struggled to rebound the ball, grabbing only 49.5 percent of the available boards per game. Lopez did not play in the first game between these two teams, but he has nice games recently against tough defenses in the Pelicans, Cavaliers, and Jazz. He can have a good game at low ownership.
Point Guard
Studs
The Hawks have been the second-worst team in the league against opposing PGs. Per our Trends tool:
This season, PGs projected for at least 15 FanDuel points against the Hawks have averaged 30.4 points and a +5.66 Plus/Minus and have exceeded salary-based expectations in 72.9 percent of contests. They now have to face Isaiah Thomas, who has scored at least 46 FD points in five of his last seven games and averaged a +6.34 Plus/Minus over his last nine. He’s only $9,000 tonight on FD, where he has a position-high +6.03 Projected Plus/Minus, 11 Pro Trends, and a 75 percent Bargain Rating.
Value
The 76ers have been very respectable lately, which has coincided with T.J. McConnell starting at point guard. He’s played at least 34 minutes in each of his last six games and has scored at least 24 FD points in each of those contests. At only $5,300 DK and $5,400 FD, he needs only 24.15 and 21.57 DK and FD points to hit value, which seems reasonable given his current projection of 34.1 minutes. He has a nice matchup against the Hornets, who have allowed starting PGs to average a +2.96 FD Plus/Minus on the season. He profiles more as a cash-game play given his limited ceiling, but he’s certainly viable in guaranteed prize pools: He’s currently the No. 2 PG in the Phan Model for DK, where he has a +4.35 Projected Plus/Minus and nine Pro Trends.
Leverage Play
On the other side of the Atlanta-Boston matchup is Dennis Schroder, who also has a nice matchup against Thomas. The Celtics have been the fourth-worst team against starting PGs this season, allowing an average of 30.57 FD points and a +5.15 Plus/Minus:
Schroder reportedly has beef with Thomas and has spoken about it over the past day. Even if you’re not a huge believer in #NarrativeStreet (I’m not), it’s not hard to like Schroder at projected ownership of only five to eight percent on FD. He has the third-highest Opponent Plus/Minus among PGs but likely will be overlooked because of the stacked PG position.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo played only nine minutes last game before resting after missing the prior game due to an illness. Coach Jason Kidd has said that he’s good to go tonight, and he has the much easier matchup of the two high-priced options — James Harden versus Tony Allen and the Grizzlies being the other one. Giannis is fifth in the entire NBA with a +6.60 Real Plus-Minus, and (minus last game) he hasn’t been below 41 FD points in over a month. The Bucks are currently seven-point favorites implied for 105.25 points against the Heat at home, a place where Giannis has dominated this season:
He’s projected for a position-high 17-20 percent ownership on FD, where he’s the No. 2 SG in the Phan Model with 12 Pro Trends.
Values
In the six games that Dion Waiters has played with Josh Richardson this season, he’s averaged 22.8 DK points and a +5.0 Plus/Minus in 32.7 minutes of action:
Justise Winslow is out for the season, which opens up a starting spot and 30-plus projected minutes yet again for Waiters. He’s currently the No. 1 SG in both the DK and FD Phan Models, although he’s a better value on the former site, where his low $4,400 salary comes with a position-high +4.95 Projected Plus/Minus, seven Pro Trends, and an 86 percent Bargain Rating. Tony Snell is certainly a solid defender, but he’s allowed solid fantasy marks in one-on-one situations:
Leverage Play
Nicolas Batum will return tonight for the Hornets after missing a couple games due to a hyperextended right knee. Jeremy Lamb will be out, which means that Batum will likely have to resume his high-minute role on the wing: He’s currently projected for 34.5 minutes and a 23.36 percent usage rate. He faces a Philly team that has been much improved lately, especially defensively: The 76ers now rank 15th in efficiency, allowing 105.2 points per 100 possessions. That said, Batum was excellent before injuring his knee — he had at least 35 DK points in eight straight games — and he could have a nice matchup if he’s guarded by Nik Stauskas instead of Robert Covington. Batum was at $8,000 DK before sitting out with this injury. He’s now only $6,900 and has a +3.25 Projected Plus/Minus, 10 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Small Forward
Stud
The SF position is ugly today, which makes it tough not to pay up for LeBron James, whose 31.5-point projected FD floor is a whopping 13.1 points higher than that of any other player at the position. LeBron and the Cavs had a brutal game last outing in Portland, a place where he’s historically struggled. However, he gets a much easier matchup tonight against the Kings, who rank 26th in defensive efficiency, allowing a poor 108.0 points per 100 possessions. The Cavs are currently seven-point favorites implied for 110.25 points — the fourth-highest mark in the slate — and LeBron is projected for 35.9 minutes and a position-high 30.93 usage rate. He’s $2,500 more expensive than any other SF on FD, but the safety he brings in cash games at a shallow position is likely worth that cost.
Value
After LeBron, SF is a wasteland. Aaron Gordon is a fine SF2 at only $4,900 on FD, where he has a +3.63 Projected Plus/Minus, eight Pro Trends, and a 98 percent Bargain Rating. The Blazers have been better defensively since the return of Al-Farouq Aminu, but no SF really has an elite matchup today, and Portland still ranks 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108.9 points per 100 possessions. Gordon has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last nine games, averaging a robust +8.08 Plus/Minus during that time:
The Magic are reportedly going to play more small-ball lineups, which is good for Gordon, who is best as a small-ball four. He may have to split time with Jeff Green in that role, but the more important factor is that he’ll have more room in the lane without two traditional bigs.
Leverage Play
Gordon Hayward is the second-highest priced SF in the slate at $7,400 FD, and he has an awful -3.24 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Pistons, who rank 26th in pace, averaging 96.3 possessions per game, and 12th defensively, allowing 104.7 points per 100 possessions. That said, the Pistons are on a brutal road back-to-back after playing in Golden State last night, and they just lost their best perimeter defender in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who is out with a strained left rotator cuff. In these circumstances, Hayward’s poor matchup metrics could be a bit misleading. This game has easily the lowest total at 190 points, and the Jazz are implied for 100.25 points as 10.5-point favorites. Hayward is projected at only five to eight percent ownership despite owning the position’s second-highest ceiling projection.
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Love has missed salary-based expectations in four of his last five games, but he’s in an excellent bounceback spot tonight against the Kings, who own the league’s fifth-worst defense, allowing 108.0 points per 100 possessions. The Kings have been much better offensively since moving DeMarcus Cousins to the center spot and playing him with a stretch big like Anthony Tolliver, but this is certainly a matchup on the other end that Love can dominate:
Love is currently the No. 2 PF in the Phan Model for FD, where his reasonable $7,700 salary comes with a +3.33 Projected Plus/Minus, 90 percent Bargain Rating, and nine Pro Trends.
Value
Enes Kanter has been dominant lately:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine games and averaged a ridiculous +6.69 FD Plus/Minus during that time — and that sample includes a 9.5-point dud on only 22.03 minutes against the Bucks last week. He gets a nice matchup tonight against a Wolves team that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 107.4 points per 100 possessions. Kanter will come off the bench as usual, but he’ll still get between 25 and 30 minutes and mostly go up against Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng, both of whom have been poor defenders this season:
Leverage Play
If you’re looking for a cheap non-Kanter DK value play in cash games, look at Al-Farouq Aminu, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games and averaged a +5.57 DK Plus/Minus over his last nine:
He’s scored at least 30 DK points in each of his last four games and has been rebounding like a true big, grabbing 46 boards over that time frame. With Orlando wanting to play small tonight, Aminu will get no shortage of run as Portland’s small-ball four: He’s projected for 31.5 minutes. He has a low 13.02 projected usage rate, but he’s also only $5,300 on DK, where he comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating.
Center
Stud
Hassan Whiteside will face the Bucks tonight, and it could get ugly if they attack them via the pick-and-roll:
He’s done very bad things to the Bucks over his last three meetings . . .
. . . and he’s only $8,400 DK and $8,600 FD, which means he needs 39.65 and 35.62 DK and FD points to hit value. He’s easily hit those marks against the Bucks recently. He owns a +1.44 FD Plus/Minus and is coming off a game in which he destroyed the Warriors, putting up a 28-20 line in 37 minutes of action. He’s currently the No. 1 center in the Phan Model for FD, where he has a position-high +5.78 Projected Plus/Minus and 11 Pro Trends.
Value
Marc Gasol is way too cheap at $6,900 on DK, where he’s a solid cash-game option simply because of his price. He also has a nice matchup against a Houston team that has allowed 1.50 points above salary-based expectations to centers in the past 12 months and owns a below-average defense, allowing 105.8 points per 100 possessions. He’s been oddly terrible at rebounding this season — he hasn’t grabbed double-digit rebounds since December 14th — but he certainly has the ability to fill up the box score with a variety of statistics. But, again, this is about his salary: He’s currently the No. 1 center in the Phan Model for DK, where he has a +3.55 Projected Plus/Minus, 13 Pro Trends, and a massive 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Leverage Play
Joel Embiid‘s price has continued to creep up, but he’s still done things like this:
He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last eight games, averaging a +5.76 FD Plus/Minus during that time. He’s remained on a minutes limit, but that hasn’t mattered: He went 21-14 for 42.3 FD points in only 26.9 minutes against the Knicks last game. He has a nice matchup against a Charlotte team that has allowed a +2.92 Plus/Minus to FD centers this season. Embiid is projected for low five to eight percent ownership and is currently the No. 2 center in the Phan Model for FD, where his $7,800 salary comes with a +4.70 Projected Plus/Minus, 12 Pro Trends, and a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
