Friday brings an eight-game main slate starting at 7pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Point Guard
Stud
Chris Paul is currently the highest-rated DraftKings PG in the Phan Model and leads all players at the position with a +5.71 Projected Plus/Minus. He’ll face a Thunder team that ranks as the fourth-best defense in the league but is weakest at the PG position, where Russell Westbrook has had to consume a massive offensive burden, averaging a 43.1 usage rate. The Clippers have been easily the league’s best defense this year, but they’ve also posted a top-10 offensive rating on the year, scoring 105.4 points per 100 possessions. They are currently five-point favorites on the road tonight, and CP3 is a play in all contest formats.
Value
The highest-rated FanDuel PG in the Phan Model is the Pacers’ Jeff Teague. He is $6,300 today and gets a matchup against a Philly team with the seventh-worst defense in the league. Per our NBA Matchups tool, he’ll start opposite Sergio Rodriguez, who has allowed 4.1 DK points above salary-based expectations to PGs in his limited time. The 76ers have been the third-worst team in the league against PGs this year and the Pacers are currently implied to score 108.75 points on the road — the second-highest mark in the slate. Teague has been a bit up and down this year depending on whether he’s on the road or at home, but that may not matter in this great matchup: He played the 76ers on Wednesday and dropped 50.9 FD points in 40.7 minutes.
Leverage Play
Damian Lillard was the most recent victim of the elite Clippers defense, as he scored only 7.7 FD points in 27.8 minutes in his last game on Wednesday. It was the first time he had been below 36 FD points in any game this year as the Blazers got absolutely blown out, losing the game by 31 points. He’ll look to bounce back tonight against a Kings team that ranks 23rd on defense this year and is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. His individual matchup should be against Ty Lawson, who has posted a very poor -1.5 Defensive Real Plus/Minus over the past year. He’ll also get time against Darren Collison, who isn’t much better: He posted an awful 112 defensive rating last season over 74 games. Dame is $200 less than CP3 tonight on DK and the same price on FD. He’s a nice pivot in tournaments.
Shooting Guard
Stud
DeMar DeRozan continues to dominate this season, putting up a whopping 52.8 FD points against the fourth-ranked Thunder defense. He still leads the NBA in scoring at 34.1 points per game and has done it very efficiently, shooting 53.3 percent from the field. Again, those numbers will eventually regress, but it’s really hard to fade him during the current hot streak, especially tonight against a Charlotte team that will be missing their top wing defender in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. DeRozan is really expensive on FD at $9,000, but he’s a little more manageable at $8,200 on DK, where he leads the position with a 95 percent Bargain Rating and 10 Pro Trends. Despite being the most expensive option there, he still leads all SGs with a +4.85 Projected Plus/Minus. He’s in play in all formats.
Value
Marcus Smart has been coming off the bench for the Celtics, but he’s still been playing around 30 minutes or more and has hit salary-based expectations in all four of his games. He faces the Knicks, who have been the eighth-worst team in the league against opposing SGs. The Celtics are currently implied for a slate-high 110.75 points. Smart own the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DK at +3.65, where he actually holds dual eligibility as both a PG and SG. He is projected for 33.7 minutes and a 20.64 usage rate tonight. He’s a solid cash-game option if you don’t want to pay up for some of the studs like DeRozan and C.J. McCollum.
Leverage Play
Smart’s teammate, Avery Bradley, is actually a nice leverage play. He’s been great this season, exceeding salary-based expectations by an average of 7.77 FD points per game. He’s been seeing huge minute totals that haven’t dipped even with Smart’s return to the lineup: He played 38.4 minutes last game and hasn’t been below 33 in any game this season. He’s priced up at $7,000 DK and $6,900 FD, but that FD salary would put his salary implication at 28.15 points — a mark he’s blown by several times this year. He struggled last game against the Clippers, but everyone struggles against the Clippers’ elite defense this season. The two games prior he put up 53.7 and 47.8 FD points. He’s $200 less than McCollum, which could keep his ownership levels down tonight.
Small Forward
Stud
Sites has been very slow to raise Carmelo Anthony‘s price: He has scored between 37 and 42 FD points in each of his last three games and still sits at only $7,400 DK and $7,200 FD. Tonight he gets a terrific matchup against a Celtics team that has been the second-worst in the league against opposing SFs, allowing an average of 3.6 FD points above salary-based expectations on the year. Melo is projected for 35.2 minutes and a 31.21 usage rate. He’s tied for the most Pro Trends on DK with 12. Because of his low price points, he’s top-three at the position with +4.25 and +4.73 Projected Plus/Minus values on DK and FD. He’s a nice cash-game option who still boasts a lot of upside and can allow you to roster other high-priced studs like CP3 or Lillard.
Value
Kawhi Leonard actually leads the position with +4.35 and +8.47 Projected Plus/Minus values on DK and FD. As you can tell by that second number, he’s seemingly way underpriced on FD, where he is projected for 5.1 fantasy points per $1,000 and holds an 86 percent Bargain Rating. He will face a Detroit team that ranks fifth defensively this season but has been only average at defending the SF spot. Our Matchups tool indicates that his matchup against Marcus Morris is a difficult one — Morris has held opposing SFs to 3.8 DK points below salary-based expectations over the past year — but Kawhi is projected for 34.1 minutes and a 30.73 usage rate. Translation: The poor matchup might not matter that much. Carmelo might be a better cash-game option given his lower price point and superior matchup, but Kawhi should definitely be on your tournament radar.
Leverage Play
LeBron James is a nice tournament option and is fine in cash as well if you would rather avoid Melo for some reason or want to pay up at both FD SF spots. He has a +6.58 Projected Plus/Minus on FD and is projected for 36.6 minutes and a 28.54 usage rate against a Wizards team that has allowed 105.0 points per 100 possessions — the ninth-worst mark in the league. LeBron has historically dominated the Wizards, averaging a +4.06 Plus/Minus on FD against them since 2014. He has the highest-projected ceiling at 63.3 FD points today and is projected for nine to 12 percent ownership.
Gordon Hayward has been excellent since returning early from an injury: He scored 43.4 FD points on 29 real points, seven rebounds, and four assists in Wednesday’s game against the second-ranked Charlotte defense. What is perhaps even more important is his minutes totals: He played 36.4 last game and has seen at least 30 in all three games to start the season. He’s projected for 35.4 minutes and a 27.82 usage rate. It currently looks like George Hill is unlikely to play tonight, which means that Hayward could see additional minutes and handle the ball a little more, as he did last game. He is an elite GPP option as a pivot down from the high-priced studs mentioned above.
Power Forward
Stud
Kevin Love has been great this season, exceeding salary-based expectations in every game but one. He’s coming off a game in which he scored 44.9 FD points in a tough matchup against Paul Millsap and a stingy Atlanta defense. He’s been scoring — he has at least 18 points in every game this year — but he’s also been rebounding the ball very well: He’s posted impressive double-doubles in each of his last two affairs. He’s projected for 33.5 minutes and a solid 25.26 usage rate tonight against a Wizards team that, again, hasn’t been very good defensively. He will face fellow stretch big Markieff Morris, who has allowed opponents to score 2.8 points above salary-based expectations over the past year. Love has a top-five rating at the position in the Phan Model for both DK and FD.
Value
Derrick Favors is probably the easiest cash-game play we’ve seen all season at just a silly $5,900 price tag on FD. As expected, he easily leads all PFs with a +5.34 Projected Plus/Minus thanks to his 29.1-point projection, which is still lower than he’s been in each of his last two games. Per our NBA On/Off tool, Favors has easily been the biggest beneficiary with Hill out of the game:
Favors is projected for 32.0 minutes and a 21.75 usage rate tonight against a Magic team that currently ranks as the second-worst defensive team in the league. Again, Favors is an easy play tonight.
Leverage Play
We mentioned some other players we liked on the NBA Daily Fantasy Flex podcast this morning — including Blake Griffin and Philly’s Dario Saric — but the leverage play I’ll mention here is Kristaps Porzingis. He’s been excellent lately, scoring 38.1, 41.1, and 34.5 FD points in his last three games. Perhaps more importantly he has seen 30-plus minutes in those affairs after dipping below that mark in his two prior games. Tonight he gets an awesome matchup against a Boston team that surprisingly has been the worst defensive team in the league this year, allowing an embarrassing 112.3 points per 100 possessions. Boston is implied for the most points in the slate and this game could be shootout. Kristaps and Melo are both in play in all contest formats.
Center
Stud
Given the other elite high-priced options tonight, it’s hard to be excited about DeMarcus Cousins, who is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. He’s been solid in the last three, scoring at least 44.8 FD points in those games. However, there is some downside here given the B2B and the fact that Sacramento has played at the second-slowest pace in the league this year. The Kings are implied for a fairly low total of 100.5 points, which is telling, given that Portland ranks as a bottom-five defense on the year. There’s certainly upside here — Boogie has the highest-projected ceiling at 58.7 FD points and is the highest-rated center in the FD Phan Model — but there’s also quite a bit of downside. Perhaps reserve Boogie more for tournaments tonight and pay up at PG and SF.
Values
Marcin Gortat continues to be really consistent and has hit salary-based expectations in each of his last six games by an average of 3.72 DK points per game. Tonight he’ll face a Cleveland team that has historically been really solid defensively with Tristan Thompson but has slacked a little this year, allowing 103.4 points per 100 possessions — the 13th-highest mark in the league. Gortat has seen at least 30 minutes in every game this season and is projected for 34.1 tonight. Last game was the first game in which he didn’t grab double-digit rebounds. He will look to bounce back in that regard against a Cavs team that has been very average rebounding the ball: They boast a 49.8 percent rebound rate — 17th in the league. Gortat continues to be a nice value play on both sites.
Leverage Play
Andre Drummond is the second-highest rated center on DK, where he holds a $7,400 salary, 95 percent Bargain Rating, and 12 Pro Trends. He had a solid performance last outing against the Suns, scoring 46 DK points in 35.1 minutes of action. Tonight’s matchup is a tough one, as he’ll face a Spurs team that predictably ranks in the top-10 on defense and has rebounded the ball at a top-five rate. However, that should lower Drummond’s ownership in tournaments, which is intriguing, considering how tough the center spot is tonight. He’s projected to be owned in only two to four percent of tournaments on FanDuel.
Good luck!
News Updates
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