The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
John Wall is the highest-priced PG on FanDuel and is taking on the Detroit Pistons today. He has an excellent individual matchup against Reggie Jackson, who finished 70th out of 74 qualifiers at PG last season with a Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) of -2.94. The Wizards will still be without Markieff Morris, and Wall saw an increase in both usage rate and Plus/Minus with Morris off the court last season:
Steph Curry played only 29.5 minutes in the first game of the year, resulting in a Plus/Minus of -5.32. However, this could be a good bounce-back spot for him against the Pelicans in New Orleans. The Warriors currently lead the slate with an implied team total of 114.75 points, and the spread of -8.5 is lower than you normally see in a game involving Golden State. Historically, Curry has been an excellent contributor in games with comparable Vegas implications:
Draymond Green is currently questionable for tonight’s game, and, if he were to sit, Curry could potentially see a nice spike in usage. Last season, Curry’s usage rate increased to a team-high 31.5 percent with Green off the court:
Value
Jerryd Bayless saw approximately 28 minutes of court time for the 76ers on Wednesday, posting a Plus/Minus of +9.20 on FanDuel. He draws a matchup today against Kyrie Irving, who was 64th among qualified PGs last season in DRPM. He remains affordable at just $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Nets played at a break-neck pace of 116.6 possessions in their first game of the season, allowing a whopping 140 points to the Indiana Pacers. Elfrid Payton should benefit from that matchup today. He’s been a bit of a roller coaster in terms of his fantasy production throughout the years, but he has historically performed well in games with comparable pace differentials:
Kemba Walker draws a juicy matchup today against Dennis Schroder and the Atlanta Hawks. Schroder was 69th among PGs in DRPM last season, and no team rewarded point guards projected for at least 20 points with a higher Plus/Minus last season on DraftKings:
Kyrie Irving left Cleveland to become more involved on the offensive end of the court, but his usage rate through two games is actually four points lower than it was last season. That probably won’t last for much longer. He gets an interesting matchup today against the 76ers, who were the worst team in terms of defensive efficiency with Joel Embiid off the floor last season. Embiid is supposedly limited to playing minutes in the teens early in the season – although he got up to 27 minutes in their first game – and the 76ers should offer little resistance at the rim when he’s off the court.
Shooting Guard
Stud
There really is no true ‘stud’ at SG today: Jimmy Butler is the highest-priced SG on DraftKings at $7,700, while Bradley Beal is the highest-priced SG on FanDuel at $7,800. Virtually all of the top-priced SGs also have brutal matchups:
- Beal vs. Avery Bradley (0.7 fantasy points per minute allowed)
- C.J. McCollum vs. Victor Oladipo (fifth in DRPM among SGs)
- Butler vs. Utah Jazz (first in defensive efficiency last season)
It might be a day where it makes sense to pay down at the position.
Values
Rodney Hood disappointed a lot of people on Wednesday, but he still projects to be a big part of the Utah offense this season. He will likely see Andrew Wiggins on defense today – who ranked 86th out of 87 qualifiers with a DRPM of -3.16 last season – and has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent on FanDuel.
E’Twaun Moore played 34 minutes for the Pelicans on opening night and finds himself in a much more advantageous pace spot tonight against the Golden State Warriors. He has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Klay Thompson is always a threat to post a big game, but he was the one Warrior who really struggled last season in games that weren’t projected to be blowouts. He posted a Plus/Minus of +7.19 in games where Golden State was favored by 15 or more; otherwise his production was pretty lackluster:
He did post a Plus/Minus of +8.44 in his first game against the Rockets, so perhaps things will be different this season.
Avery Bradley managed to score 15 points in his debut for the Pistons, but foul trouble limited him to just 23 minutes of court time. That will undoubtedly rise going forward, and he’s currently very affordable at just $5,100 on FanDuel and $5,400 on DraftKings.
Jrue Holiday has SG eligibility on DraftKings in addition to PG eligibility and could be an intriguing buy-low option today against the Warriors. His salary decreased by nearly $1,000 after posting just 18 fantasy points in his first game; he saw 38.5 minutes of court time and shot only two of 11 from the field. Holiday thrived in pace-up spots like this last season:
Also in his favor: He should have minimal ownership on this large slate.
Small Forward
Studs
After spending most of Tuesday listed as questionable, LeBron James ended up starting and playing over 41 minutes on his way to a +17.43 Plus/Minus on DraftKings. Despite the strong game, however, there are some potential concerns here. LeBron’s usage was down a bit in that match, and there are definitely questions about how all of these high-usage players will fit together this season. He made up for that by grabbing 16 rebounds against a Celtics team that was weak on the glass last season, but that was aided by Kevin Love playing just 28 minutes due to foul trouble.
He also will likely see the defense of either Khris Middleton or Giannis Antetokounmpo, both of whom graded out as well above-average in terms of DRPM. Last year, Milwaukee was one of the few teams able to limit LeBron’s production even slightly:
That’s a big decrease from his average Plus/Minus of +5.26 last season. LeBron can obviously go off against anyone, but there will be better spots for him.
Speaking of Antetokounmpo, he was an absolute monster in his first game of the season, posting a usage rate of 40.7 percent on his way to 62.75 DraftKings points. Giannis has always been a special contributor in the peripheral categories – he had 13 rebounds, three assists, and three steals on Wednesday – and if he can keep up that level of offensive production he’s on his way to a Westbrookian price tag. He still doesn’t appear to have much of a jump shot – only 5.4 percent of his points came from mid-range, and he made no 3-pointers – but does it honestly even matter at this point?
Finally, don’t forget about Kevin Durant today against the Pelicans. He’s the cheapest of the three players and has arguably the best individual matchup against Dante Cunningham. Durant played over 37 minutes on Wednesday against the Rockets, but his overall line suffered due to eight turnovers and just five free throw attempts.
Value
Jeremy Lamb played 28 minutes as a starter on Wednesday and remains underpriced on FanDuel at just $5,500. He averaged over 30 fantasy points per game as a starter last season.
Evan Fournier posted a Plus/Minus of +8.19 on DraftKings against the Heat on Wednesday and finds himself in a much more advantageous spot against the Nets today. All of the Magic players benefit from a pace differential of +4.5 – which honestly might be conservative given how fast Brooklyn played in their first game this season – and Fournier has historically been a solid value in pace-up games:
You can also consider Terrence Ross at $4,300 on DraftKings, where he possesses a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. People don’t tend to stack games in NBA DFS at the same rate they do for NFL, MLB, or NHL, but stacking the Magic and the Nets definitely has merit in GPPs tonight. You can review the combined ownership for a particular group of players using the new DFS Contests Dashboard.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince is still cheap on FanDuel at $4,800 and put up 25.5 fantasy points against the painfully slow-paced Dallas Mavericks. This game against the Hornets doesn’t project to be significantly faster, but Prince should still be able to pay off his salary given the amount of minutes he’s playing. He averaged 0.75 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel last season.
Khris Middleton played a massive 43.43 minutes in Game 1 of the season and could face a similar minute load today against LeBron. He was second to Giannis in both usage rate and field goal attempts in that game but made just 35 percent of his shot attempts.
Power Forward
Stud
There were some concerns about what the addition of DeMarcus Cousins would do for the fantasy prospects of Anthony Davis this season. Last year, Davis saw his production fall off a cliff when sharing the court with Cousins:
A usage rate of just 28.5 percent and an average of just 41.95 DraftKings points per 36 minutes represent massive decreases from his season-long numbers. Fortunately, it appears as though the partnership might be on a little more equal footing this season. Davis posted a usage rate of 41.7 percent while sharing the court with Cousins in Game 1 and responded with 57 fantasy points on DraftKings. If Draymond Green were to miss this game, and he’s currently questionable with a knee injury, it’s hard to fathom who is going to try to cover him for the Warriors tonight.
Value
Larry Nance Jr. started at PF for the Lakers on Thursday and played nearly 30 minutes. Nance averaged 0.9 fantasy points per minute last season, which makes him one of the top values of the day at just $4,300 on DraftKings and $4,900 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Myles Turner is officially doubtful for tonight’s contest, which could open up some interesting options in the Pacers frontcourt. Thaddeus Young posted over 44 DraftKings points against the Nets on Wednesday and looks fully recovered from the wrist injury that plagued him last season. He’s typically one of the top contributors in defensive statistics and has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent on DraftKings. Domantas Sabonis was extremely impressive in limited minutes on Wednesday, posting 25.75 DraftKings points in just 19 minutes of court time, and is another candidate to see an increased role without Turner. If he doesn’t draw the start, that honor will likely fall to Al Jefferson.
Ben Simmons was significantly underpriced for his first game of the year on FanDuel, but they’ve raised his price tag by over $2,000 after scoring 45.50 fantasy points against the Wizards. Despite the increase, he still might be too cheap at $7,700, especially considering that Embiid might see fewer minutes in this contest.
Cody Zeller and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist have both been ruled out for the Hornets today, which could open the door for a bigger role for Frank Kaminsky. He posted a usage differential of +3.0 percent without Zeller, Kidd-Gilchrist, and Nic Batum off the court last season.
Center
Stud
Rudy Gobert had a rough first night against the Denver Nuggets, thanks in part to spending most of his time on defense chasing Nikola Jokic around the perimeter. Still, there were some encouraging signs. He posted a usage rate of 22.3 percent, which represents an increase of roughly six percent compared to his usage last season. The rebounds and blocked shots will be there for him; if his offensive numbers continue to stay strong, he’ll wind up being a value at $8,100 on FanDuel.
Value
Brook Lopez is priced like a value on DraftKings at just $6,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He was one of the most consistent fantasy centers last season, posting a Consistency Rating of 88 percent, and the Lakers/Suns game currently has the fourth-highest over/under of the day. One potential concern with Lopez is that he’s on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, which is something that has hurt his fantasy production historically:
However, traveling from LA to Phoenix early in the season may not be a bad situation.
Fast Break
The development of Andre Drummond as a passer is one of the most interesting storylines to monitor early in the season. He handed out four assists in the season opener after working more as a distributor in the preseason, and those extra six fantasy points were the big reason he was able to still return value despite playing just 22.35 minutes. If he can avoid foul trouble – a big if for Drummond – he should see closer to 30 minutes tonight, and adding some assist potential to his 20-point, 20-rebound ceiling makes him an extremely appealing target for GPPs.
If Kevin Love can stay out of foul trouble tonight against the Bucks, he could be in line for a nice bounce-back performance. The Bucks had the fifth-worst rebounding percentage in the league last season, and Love should potentially grab more boards this year starting next to Jae Crowder instead of Tristan Thompson.
Good luck tonight!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players herein mentioned. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs:
