The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
PG is a rough position at the top on today’s slate. Damian Lillard is the highest-priced option on FanDuel, but he has a brutal matchup with the Sacramento Kings. They’ve played at one of the slowest paces in the league this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.70. Kemba Walker has been priced up to $9,000 on FanDuel, which has historically been too expensive for him to return value on a consistent basis:
Spencer Dinwiddie has a nice matchup with the Cavaliers, but his numbers have taken a dive with D’Angelo Russell back to playing 30-plus minutes per night. Overall, it seems like a day to pay down at the position.
Value
Austin Rivers has been playing all the minutes he can handle recently, seeing at least 35 in each of the past four games. He has a nice matchup today with the Nuggets, whose defensive numbers have fallen off a cliff in the month of February. They’ve posted a defensive rating of 118.6 over that time frame, which would be the worst full-season mark in the league by a pretty comfortable margin. The Clippers also remain somewhat thin at the guard position, with Avery Bradley set to miss up to the next three weeks.
Fast Break
Tomas Satoransky has been on fire recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.64 over the past 10 games on DraftKings. He’s hit at least 30 fantasy points in five of six games, yet he remains affordable at just $5,600 on DraftKings with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent, which is the top mark on the slate at the PG position. He has a decent matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.14.
Goran Dragic has one of the best matchups of the day at the position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.30 on FanDuel against the Philadelphia 76ers. He’s averaging only around 32 minutes of playing time lately, but that is reflected in his $6,100 price tag on FanDuel. Given his average of 1.05 fantasy points per minute over the past month, he doesn’t need to play much more than 30 minutes to return value at his current salary.
Shooting Guard
Studs
No one on today’s slate is projected for more minutes in our NBA Models than Bradley Beal. He’s been playing upwards of 40 minutes per night recently, and he’s had a usage bump of 1.9 percentage points with John Wall out of the lineup:
He leads all SGs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Lou Williams has been fantastic for the Clippers all season, but he’s been especially good over the past six games. He’s cracked 40 fantasy points in three of those games while posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.32 over that time frame. His price for today’s contest has remained reasonable across the industry despite his production, and Williams (like his teammate Rivers) should benefit from his matchup with the Nuggets. Vegas has this game pegged as the highest scoring of the night by a comfortable margin: The 230.5 total is the highest mark on the slate by nearly 10 points.
Value
Buddy Hield has been awesome on a per-minute basis all season, averaging 0.93 fantasy points per minute, but he has been limited by a lack of consistent playing time. That said, he has seen at least 27.5 minutes in each of the past three games, which has led to an average of 33.67 DraftKings points over that time frame. The Kings have vowed to get their younger guys some additional playing time over the final two months of the season, so don’t be surprised to see Hield continue to get extended run for Sacramento.
Fast Break
Caris LeVert made his return from injury yesterday and has one of the best matchups of the day against the Cleveland Cavaliers. He will likely be on some sort of minutes limit — we currently have him projected for just 22.9 — but he can still do a lot of damage in that time frame against the Cavs’ atrocious defense. He’s extremely affordable at just $4,000 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Small Forward
Studs
It’s extremely hard to look past LeBron James tonight against the Brooklyn Nets. He’s been outstanding recently, exceeding salary-based expectations in seven straight games since the Cavs jettisoned Isaiah Thomas to Los Angeles. He’s dominated the usage for the Cavs over that time frame, posting a usage rate of at least 29.1 percent in five of the seven contests. The Nets are obviously a fantastic matchup as well, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.41, and the Cavs’ implied team total of 115.75 is the second-best mark on the slate. LeBron will be tough to avoid on FanDuel, where he leads all players with 14 Pro Trends and has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He should be a building block for most cash teams and one of the highest owned players in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
The presence of LeBron will likely result in Giannis Antetokounmpo being a bit overlooked, but he has a lot of merits in his own right. He’s back to playing all the minutes he can handle, seeing at least 39 in three straight games. That kind of playing time makes him a really strong asset given his average of 1.42 fantasy points per minute this season. He’s been priced down to $11,000 on FanDuel for today’s matchup with the Wizards, which represents a decrease of $600 over the past month.
Value
The Bulls will be without Paul Zipser for the third straight game, which should result in a larger role for Denzel Valentine. He’s played at least 28 minutes in each of his last two games and has averaged 0.9 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He should be one of the most popular value plays across the industry at just $4,000 on FanDuel and $4,200 on DraftKings.
Fast Break
David Nwaba has also seen a healthy amount of playing time for the Bulls recently. He’s played at least 31 minutes in three straight games, although he hasn’t been as productive as Valentine on a per-minute basis (0.73 fantasy points per minute). He looks like a solid value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons has offered more production at the PF position than anyone recently:
He’s increased his per-minute output to 1.26 fantasy points over the past month, which is more in line with what we saw from him earlier in the season. He doesn’t have a strong matchup today with the Heat, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.02, but he still provides a combination of safety and upside that is virtually impossible to find at PF.
Value
Jabari Parker played 24 minutes in his last game and is expected to see a similar workload again today. He’s averaged a strong 0.97 fantasy points per minute since returning from injury, which makes him intriguing at $4,500 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings. He also has a solid matchup against the Washington Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.04.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap has been upgraded to questionable for today’s contest after originally being expected to miss another week. He will likely be heavily limited if he does return, but he’s priced at the absolute minimum at $3,500 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.08 fantasy points per minute this season, so he could potentially return value at his current salary even if he sees only 15 minutes of playing time. The Nuggets are also expected to score a boatload of points in today’s contest: They lead the slate with an implied team total of 117.5.
It’s admittedly a small sample, but Tobias Harris has crushed this season with Bradley and Danilo Gallinari off the court:
That includes a performance of 58.4 FanDuel points in the only game this season he’s played with both players out of the lineup. He could have some appeal with both players already ruled out for today’s contest.
Center
Stud
Joel Embiid vs. Hassan Whiteside: The stud center matchup everyone has been waiting for. These guys have gone at each other on the court and on Twitter this season, which should make for a fun subplot on today’s slate. From a fantasy perspective, this hasn’t been much of a battle for most of the season. Embiid has crushed Whiteside in terms of production, and he’s averaged a stout 1.59 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He looks like an elite play on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Whiteside, meanwhile, could have some sneaky appeal here. His minutes have been way down recently, but the matchup against Embiid could work to get him a few extra minutes in today’s contest. He’s averaged 1.36 fantasy points per minute this season and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.04 on FanDuel, so any extra playing time could lead to a big day at just $7,400.
Value
Jarrett Allen has been a really nice value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.04 over the past 10 games on DraftKings. He hasn’t been playing a ton of minutes, but he’s averaged 1.16 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has a nice matchup today with the Cavs, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.93. Plus, he can do stuff like this:
DUNK OF THE NIGHT: Jarrett Allen! pic.twitter.com/M1EQghtKRO
— Michael Scotto (@MikeAScotto) February 27, 2018
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic has arguably been the best player in fantasy recently not named Anthony Davis. He’s gone for at least 52.8 FanDuel points in four straight games and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.12 over the past 10 games on FanDuel. His salary has not changed at all over that time frame despite his production, and his current $10,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He also has a nice matchup with the Clippers, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.18.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
