The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook headlines a strong group of PGs on today’s slate. He remains one of the safest investments in NBA DFS, thanks to a ridiculous average of 1.72 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over his last 13 games and has actually seen a slight decrease in salary for today’s contest with the Wizards. The Thunder’s implied team total of 109 points ranks third on today’s slate and Westbrook has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.82 on DraftKings.
On the other side of the matchup, John Wall looks like one of the best values of the day on DraftKings. His current $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. Wall has historically been an awesome value with a comparable salary:
The title of underpriced stud PG on FanDuel belongs to Stephen Curry, who has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent against the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Timberwolves have struggled on the defensive end of the court this season despite their strong record,. The Warriors’ implied team total of 119.75 is high even by their lofty standards. It represents an increase of nearly four points when compared to their season average and Curry has historically been a nice value with a comparable implied team total:
Value
Jarrett Jack has been a solid contributor for the Knicks recently, averaging 0.87 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Jack rarely sees 30 minutes of playing time – he’s currently projected for 28.2 minutes in our NBA Models – but that should still give him a chance to return value against the Nuggets. It’s one of the best matchups of the day at the position, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.04 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic is expected to play today for the Miami Heat, but they will still be pretty shorthanded with Tyler Johnson out with an ankle injury and Dion Waiters already out for the season. Dragic has led the team with a usage rate of 30.2 percent with both players off the court this season, resulting in an average of 40.28 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
He does have a tough matchup against the slow-paced Sacramento Kings, but he’s likely underpriced given the Heat’s current injury situation.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jimmy Butler is questionable to return from his knee injury today. If he can’t, Andrew Wiggins will likely be the chalk once again at the SG position. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 28.7 percent in each of the last three games and has seen the largest usage bump on the team with Butler off the court this season:
He leads all SGs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
Will Barton moved into the starting lineup for the Denver Nuggets in their last game, resulting in over 34 minutes of playing time. Head coach Mike Malone confirmed that he would stay in the starting lineup moving forward, which is a good sign for his fantasy prospects. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season, so any additional playing time for Barton would be a welcome sight.
There’s also a chance that the Nuggets could be without Gary Harris for today’s contest. Barton has seen a slight usage increase with Harris off the court this season, and his absence could open up a few additional minutes for Barton at the SG position. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal has a tough matchup today against the elite wing defenders of the Oklahoma City Thunder, but he might just be too cheap at the moment at $7,200 on DraftKings. He’s historically been a strong value with a comparable price tag:
Kristaps Porzingis is questionable for today’s contest with the Nuggets. His absence could lead to a bigger role for Tim Hardaway Jr. and Courtney Lee. THJ offers the higher ceiling of the two – he’s averaged 1.01 fantasy points per minute over the past month – and currently has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on FanDuel. Lee has provided more stability, posting a Consistency Rating of 86 percent on FanDuel over the past year.
Small Forward
Stud
If Jimmy Butler does suit up today for the Timberwolves, he’ll find himself in a solid spot against the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors have played at the third fastest pace this season, resulting in a pace differential (paceD) of +4.7 for Butler and the rest of the Timberwolves. Butler has historically done well in games with a comparable paceD:
He leads all SFs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel and no one at the position can match his workload when healthy. That said, he could be on some sort of minute restriction if he does return today, so it will be important to monitor the news up until lineup lock.
Value
SF is definitely a bit thin on today’s slate, especially on FanDuel given the absence of multipositional eligibility. That could increase the appeal of someone like Andre Iguodala. He has very little upside given that he typically plays no more than 24 minutes a game, but he is dirt cheap at $3,800 and has averaged 0.76 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Josh Richardson has been one of the best values at SF over his last 10 games:
He should continue to serve as the secondary ballhandler with Johnson sidelined, which gives him a solid floor. He does have a tough matchup today against the Kings, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.65, and his $6,700 salary on FanDuel makes him more expensive than he’s been virtually all season.
Justise Winslow should also continue to get some extended run for the Heat given their current injury situation. He’s averaged just 0.62 fantasy points per minute over the past month, but at only $3,600, he can still return value if given the playing time. He saw 28 minutes in his last game and has played at least 25 minutes in four straight.
Power Forward
Stud
Draymond Green has been a solid contributor of late, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.51 on DraftKings over his last 10 games. His salary has actually decreased by $700 over that time frame despite his production and his current $7,500 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. The Timberwolves don’t represent a great matchup for PFs, but Draymond does lead all PF eligible players with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
The Nuggets have shown a willingness to play Mason Plumlee next to Nikola Jokic recently, which has allowed him to play at least 29 minutes in two of his last three games. If he’s going to play that much, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced at $4,400 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and facing the Knicks rewards Plumlee with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.74. Coach Mike Malone did say that the starting PF spot would be dependent on matchup moving forward, so there is a chance he could go with Trey Lyles instead. Either way, Plumlee has been a safe investment for the most part, exceeding salary-based expectations in 18 of his last 23 games.
Fast Break
Taj Gibson only played 28.5 minutes last night against Portland, which means he’ll likely be leaned on heavily tonight against the Warriors. He had played at least 37 minutes in each of his four previous games and his current projection of 36.5 minutes leads all of today’s PFs on FanDuel.
Markieff Morris has not had a good season, but he has still shown a pretty big ceiling from time to time. He’s just $4,400 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Center
Stud
The choice at the top of the center position is pretty easy on FanDuel. Karl-Anthony Towns has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent, which makes him a major anomaly:
He leads all players with 14 Pro Trends and centers with a comparable number of Pro Trends have averaged a historical Plus/Minus of +2.85. That said, he doesn’t exactly have a great matchup today with the Warriors. He hasn’t found much success against them historically, including an underwhelming 33.9-point performance in their first matchup this season. The Wolves are also 11.5-point underdogs, so Towns could end up watching the end of this game from the bench.
Value
Steven Adams has one of the best matchups of the day at the position against the Washington Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.39. He’s also been very productive recently, averaging 1.01 fantasy points per minute. The big question is how many minutes will Adams play in this matchup? He played over 34 in his most recent game, but prior to that had seen 32 minutes or less in four straight games.
Fast Break
Both Nikola Jokic and Hassan Whiteside make a lot of sense on DraftKings for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). Each player has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent and both have shown the ability to put up monster performances when everything breaks right for them. Jokic has been a bit like Jekyll and Hyde this season. Some games he shows up and looks to annihilate people and in others it seems like he’s just going through the motions. If the good version of Jokic shows up tonight, he could put up a monster performance. Whiteside, meanwhile, has one of the best possible matchups against the Sacramento Kings. The big issue for him is minutes, although he has cracked the 30-minute mark in three of his last four games. He’s also seen a nice bump in usage with Johnson and Waiters off the floor this season, which gives him a bit of additional upside.
Finally, here’s what Enes Kanter has done over his last 10 games:
He’s a borderline elite producer on a per minute basis, but he rarely plays more than 28 minutes. Today could be a rare exception though given the size of the Nuggets and the fact that Kyle O’Quinn is currently questionable.
Good luck!
Photo via Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
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