The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Rockets have been quite possibly the most impressive team in the league this season, and Chris Paul has been a big reason why. They’ve won 14 straight games since he returned from injury on Nov. 16, and Paul has averaged just under 45 fantasy points per game over that time frame. His salary has finally caught up to his production across the industry – he’s seen a salary increase of $2,300 on DraftKings and $1,700 on FanDuel over the past month – but it may not matter today against the Los Angeles Lakers. The Rockets’ implied team total of 120.5 points is the top mark on the slate by more than 10 points, and the matchup with the Lakers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.36 for CP3 on DraftKings.
The only real concern for Paul is that the Rockets are massive 14.5-point favorites. If the Lakers can’t keep the game close, it could result in reduced minutes for CP3, which would make it very tough for him to return value at his elevated salary. Historically, players with comparable price tags have struggled to return value in similar situations:
Value
The Clippers are second on the slate with an implied team total of 109.75 points and could provide some value at the PG position. Both Austin Rivers and Milos Teodosic have excellent matchups with the Phoenix Suns, and both figure to earn ample playing time. Teodosic has been slightly more effective on a per minute basis and is slightly cheaper on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but Rivers is the safer bet to play more than 30 minutes.
Fast Break
Gary Harris is currently questionable for the Nuggets, and his absence could potentially open the door for a big day from Jamal Murray. No one on the team has seen a larger increase in usage or production than Murray with Harris off the floor this season:
Backup PG Emmanuel Mudiay is also doubtful for today’s contest, so Murray could see a few additional minutes. This game between the Nuggets and the Timberwolves figures to be one of the best of the day for DFS purposes, featuring a 216.5 total and just a 2.5-point spread.
Lonzo Ball has posted quite possibly the worst shooting numbers in the league this season, but he has shown some signs of improvement recently. He’s shot 46.2 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from 3-point range over his past five games, which are steep increases from his season-long averages of 33.9 percent and 27.5 percent, respectively. If he can provide some increased scoring potential moving forward, Ball seems underpriced at his current salary on DraftKings given his ability to pile up assists, rebounds, and steals.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Unlike Paul, James Harden has struggled to return value recently, posting a negative Plus/Minus on FanDuel in four straight games. Ultimately, sharing the court with a future Hall-of-Famer may finally be catching up to Harden: He’s seen big decreases in his usage and assist rates en route to 4.1 fewer fantasy points per 36 minutes:
With that said, Harden is still the focal point of the Rockets offense and is likely due for some positive regression with his shooting numbers. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 32.5 percent in each of the past four games but has shot just 35.9 percent from the field. His salary has decreased to $11,100 on FanDuel for today’s matchup with the Lakers, which makes him an intriguing buy-low option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is not allowed to leave California as part of a plea deal for a DWI, which is obviously going to make it tough for him to play against the Rockets in Houston. Josh Hart filled in for him the last time he was out of the lineup, playing 33 minutes and scoring 32 DraftKings points against the Cavs last Thursday. He’s priced at the dead minimum on DraftKings, which makes him an extremely appealing punt play in all formats.
Fast Break
Tyler Johnson has SG eligibility on DraftKings in addition to PG eligibility across the DFS industry, and will likely draw the start today with Goran Dragic being downgraded to doubtful. No one on the Heat has seen a bigger increase in usage than Johnson with Dragic off the court, and Johnson has averaged 29.24 DraftKings points per 36 minutes in that situation:
Johnson played nearly 40 minutes without Dragic in their last game, and the Heat could have as few as nine players available for today’s contest.
Lou Williams has been a usage monster for the Clippers given all their injuries. He has an extremely exploitable matchup today with the Phoenix Suns. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.62 on FanDuel, where Williams has seen his salary decrease by $1,200 over the past two games.
With Donovan Mitchell out for the Jazz, look for Rodney Hood to see a few extra minutes and lead the team in usage. He’s coming off a game with more than 40 fantasy points against the Houston Rockets, but he’ll see a much tougher test today against the brutal wing defense of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Small Forward
Stud
Putting it simply, Kevin Durant has been unstoppable since the injury to Steph Curry:
He’ll face a stiff test today against the Memphis Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.90, but does it honestly even matter? Durant has posted a usage rate of at least 34.9 percent in each of his past five games while maintaining his strong shooting percentages from both the field and 3-point range. He’s also averaging a career high 2.2 blocks per game to go with 5.4 assists and 7.2 rebounds, and adding it all up results in one of the most efficient and dominant seasons we’ve seen from someone outside of LeBron James. He leads the slate in median, ceiling, and floor projection on FanDuel despite the tough matchup.
Value
Josh Richardson has scored at least 44.75 fantasy points in back-to-back matchups and figures to be heavily involved in the Miami offense once again, given the injury to Dragic. But he’s seen a large salary increase for today’s game against the Celtics, and Boston has been one of the toughest defenses in the league for opposing wing players. He still offers plenty of upside at his current salary across the industry, but there’s likely some downside as well.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram has played heavy minutes recently, and that doesn’t figure to change given the absence of both KCP and Brook Lopez today. Ingram has averaged 0.96 fantasy points per minute over the past month on DraftKings, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
The Magic are expected to be without Evan Fournier for the sixth straight game, which means that Jonathon Simmons should continue to see increased responsibilities on the offensive end of the court. He’s seen a big uptick in both usage rate and fantasy production with Fournier and Terrence Ross off the court this season:
Simmons seems underpriced on FanDuel at just $6,600, where his salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
The Spurs will rest both Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker in today’s contest, which means that LaMarcus Aldridge has the opportunity to return to the role he thrived in earlier this season. In 21 games without Leonard and Parker, Aldridge has averaged 37.25 FanDuel points per game:
His average salary during that time frame was more than $8,300, so his current $7,900 salary represents a slight discount. He also gets to face his old team today in Portland, which could provide some extra motivation.
Value
In addition to being shorthanded at guard, the Heat are very thin in the frontcourt at the moment. Jordan Mickey has stepped up for them recently, scoring at least 21 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he figures to play a similar role for them today. He’s been productive when given a chance to play this season, averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute, and he remains affordable throughout the industry.
Fast Break
With Lopez out for at least three weeks with an ankle sprain, the opportunity is there for Julius Randle, Kyle Kuzma, and Larry Nance Jr to all potentially see more minutes. Of the trio, Randle has been the most productive this season, averaging 1.09 fantasy points per minute, and he’s coming off 31 minutes in his last game. However, Kuzma might be the preferred target on FanDuel, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. It might make sense to have some exposure to all three in GPPs. This is definitely a situation to monitor going forward.
Derrick Favors is probable for today’s contest, although it’s unclear how many minutes he will ultimately play. He figures to start at center for the injured Rudy Gobert, and he’s served as a solid fantasy option with Gobert out of the lineup this season:
Favors has a tough matchup with the Thunder, but that matchup will be much less daunting if Steven Adams were to miss his third consecutive game with a concussion.
Center
Studs
Today’s matchup between the Pistons and the Mavericks pits one of the best rebounders in the league (Andre Drummond) against one of the worst rebounding teams in the league. He’s struggled a bit recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -0.70 over his past 10 games, but Drummond has dominated in the matchups that you’d expect him to: 49.75 DraftKings points against the Pacers, 55.75 DraftKings points against the Hawks, 62 DraftKings points against the Bucks. His up-and-down play has also resulted in a slight salary decrease on DraftKings, where his $9,100 price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
While Drummond has been up-and-down recently, Nikola Vucevic has devoured every team he’s faced:
He’s benefitted from the Magic being shorthanded, but that doesn’t figure to change today with Fournier and Aaron Gordon both unlikely to play. He has a solid matchup against the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.21, and also has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings.
Value
There is no more difficult situation to figure out than the Suns’ center rotation, but it might be worth giving it a look on today’s slate. They have an excellent matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers, who have allowed the highest average Plus/Minus to the position this season:
Tyson Chandler will likely start, but he’s only seen 20 minutes of playing time in each of his past two games. Alex Len has been the best of the bunch recently, scoring 39 and 50.25 DraftKings points in his past two, but there’s always a chance that he could sit tonight since Greg Monroe has been inactive in each of those contests. It’s a situation worth monitoring throughout the day to see if there’s any clarity, but whoever sees the most minutes has a chance to post a huge return on their salary.
Fast Break
DeAndre Jordan has been gobbling up rebounds recently, which has resulted in a Consistency Rating of 92 percent on DraftKings over the past month. He should have a bunch of rebound chances today against the Suns, who play at the second-fastest pace in the league but rank just 25th in offensive efficiency.
Myles Turner has one of the best matchups of the day against the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.60 on DraftKings. He played just 26.5 minutes in his last game against the Celtics, but had played at least 32 in each of his six prior contests. He’s an intriguing buy-low candidate on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
