The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook, as usual, is the highest-salaried player at $11,300 on FanDuel. He’s certainly in a fine spot, as he’s taking on a Denver team that ranks above-average in pace but 24th in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.4 points per 100 possessions. The issue is projected ownership: The Nuggets were easily the worst team in the league versus point guards last season, and the public has yet to catch up to the fact that they’re better this season.
Kyrie Irving has a decent matchup against the Indiana Pacers, who have turned up their defense lately but are still a good target for DFS, as they rank 11th in pace, averaging 100.1 possessions per 48 minutes. The Celtics have played slow this season, but they did increase their pace in the one game this year without Daniel Theis and Marcus Morris, both of whom are questionable to play tonight. The Celtics went small in that matchup — Aron Baynes got only 19.1 minutes as the main center — and Kyrie played 39.4 minutes with the game being played at a 100.0 pace. He went for 46.5 DraftKings points in that one, and it’s certainly possible the Celtics could have a better offensive game than expected playing small.
Value
After breaking the $7k barrier on DraftKings, Donovan Mitchell is now back down to $6,700 despite averaging a +4.74 Plus/Minus on 60 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He has an interesting matchup today: On one hand, the Rockets rank seventh in defensive efficiency this season, allowing just 102.4 points/100. On the other, Mitchell is likely to draw more of James Harden than Chris Paul playing alongside Ricky Rubio (although they could certainly switch), and matchups may not matter anyway given the pace-up spot. The Rockets have played a massive 8.9 possessions/48 faster than the Jazz over the past year, and PGs projected for at least 20 fantasy points have been incredibly consistent in similar games:
Fast Break
Lou Williams is out for the Clippers, although both Milos Teodosic and Austin Rivers will be back. Teodosic has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his first three starts since returning from injury, and he got up to 27.5 minutes in his last one. He’s a fine value at $4,900 on FanDuel, where he comes with a 75 percent Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden and Victor Oladipo are the highest-priced SGs today at $11,000 and $9,300 on FanDuel, respectively, although both have tough matchups against the Jazz and Celtics, who rank top-seven in defensive efficiency this year. Harden’s matchup likely isn’t that bad, however, as Utah will be missing both Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors, who is in the concussion protocol. Without either of those players on the floor this season, the Jazz have allowed 105.5 points/100, which would be almost exactly average in the league. That’s bad news against a historically good Rockets offense, and Harden is due for some positive shooting regression. He’s posting huge usage numbers of late:
Value
The NBA news today is ridiculous, and we’re still waiting on final word about tons of players. Make sure to monitor the situation in Miami, as Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters are questionable and Justise Winslow has already been downgraded to doubtful. Hassan Whiteside remains out, and James Johnson will miss 7-10 days with an ankle issue. The Heat are incredibly thin right now, especially if the guards miss tonight’s tilt. If that happens, Josh Richardson will have to take over a lot of the playmaking responsibilities: With those players off the floor this season, he’s led the team with a 28.1 percent usage rate and a 28.6 percent assist rate. His 1.14 DraftKings points per minute mark will be very valuable at his $4,800 price tag on DraftKings, where he comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
David Nwaba cannot seem to get a price bump. Over his past 10 games, he’s averaged a superb +5.57 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 80 percent Consistency. He got up to 35.1 minutes last game, and he certainly has the ability to put up another solid performance against the 76ers, who rank fourth this season in pace, averaging 103.1 possessions/48. Their defense has been solid this season, but they’ve historically had significant splits with Joel Embiid off the floor, and he’s already been ruled out for rest tonight.
Small Forward
Studs
Kevin Durant is the highest-priced option among all positions on both DraftKings and FanDuel at $11,600 and $12,000, respectively. That’s certainly a steel price to pay, but he’s perhaps the most difficult fade of the slate given all of the injuries to the Warriors: Stephen Curry obviously remains out, and Zaza Pachulia, Shaun Livingston, and Draymond Green will join him on the bench. Without those four players on the floor this season, Durant has posted a 36.3 percent usage rate, which is a team-high 5.8 percent increase from his season average. He has also averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute, which would be a sizable bump up from his 1.41 average in other situations. Oh yeah, and he’s facing a Lakers team that ranks first in pace this season, averaging 104.7 possessions/48.
Value
Robert Covington has been excellent of late, exceeding salary-based expectations on DraftKings in four of his past five games. He should play a heavy dose of minutes today, as the 76ers are a bit shorthanded with both Embiid and Trevor Booker out; it is possible they play smaller than usual with guys like Covington and Dario Saric, especially against a Chicago team that ranks in the bottom-10 in rebound rate and starts a stretch big in Lauri Markkanen. The Bulls aren’t exactly great defensively either, ranking 21st in defensive efficiency, allowing 107.1 points/100. Without Embiid or Booker on the floor, Covington has averaged a 22.0 percent usage rate — a 3.0 percent bump — and 1.06 fantasy points per minute.
Fast Break
Matchup-wise, Harrison Barnes has had as brutal of a stretch of games lately as you’ll see:
Today’s will be much easier, against the Suns, and he benefits from a massive 8.7 paceD and +4.60 Opponent Plus/Minus mark on FanDuel. He will likely not be highly owned, especially with most users paying up for Durant.
Power Forward
Stud
For all the reasons Covington is an excellent play today, Ben Simmons is also incredibly enticing. Without their injured players on the floor, Simmons has led the team with a 29.7 percent usage rate, which is a 5.9 percent increase from his season average. That makes his $9,900 price on FanDuel very difficult to ignore. He has a beautiful matchup against the Chicago Bulls, who own a bottom-10 defense, and certainly don’t have any players capable of guarding him. Denzel Valentine could get the first shot, but he’s only 6’5″ and ranks 70th this season among SFs with a poor -0.65 Defensive Real Plus-Minus. This game currently boasts a small two-point spread in favor of Philly, which means they could need all Simmons can give them.
Value
Let’s keep the 76ers love going: Given the shortened rotation, guys like Saric, Richaun Holmes, and Amir Johnson should all see increased roles and are underpriced. All three of those players currently own Projected Plus/Minus marks of at least +6.0 on DraftKings. Saric is certainly the most appealing — he’s averaged a 22.1 percent usage rate with the injured guys out — and he’s quite affordable on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a 93 percent Bargain Rating. The other two guys should be popular as well, especially Holmes, who has shown nice upside when given minutes:
Fast Break
Jordan Bell would likely be more popular tonight if it weren’t for the Philly value options. He’s seen a price hike to $4,700 on FanDuel, but he’s in a great spot against the Lakers (+5.73 Opponent Plus/Minus). He showed he can fill up the box score last game, going for six rebounds, eight assists, and two steals. Bell likely won’t go way over 25 minutes, but his recent mark of 1.26 fantasy points per minute nullifies that issue.
Center
Stud
Dwight Howard has been very solid of late, posting a +2.86 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 60 percent Consistency over his past 10 games. He has a very interesting matchup at home against the Knicks; according to our NBA News feed, they have been atrocious this season on the road:
The Knicks have been egregious on the road this season, posting a -10.5 Net Rating and 108.9 Defensive Rating — both bottom-six marks.
Further, New York’s rebounding could take a hit, as Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with a sore left knee and Enes Kanter has seen decreased minutes with a back issue. That could mean a lot of Michael Beasley, and Howard could absolutely smash this Knicks frontcourt at home. He should be fairly low-owned given the massive value of the Philly guys.
Value
In the lone game without Favors and Gobert this season, Ekpe Udoh played 32.4 minutes and went for 39.5 DraftKings points. He should be yet another popular big man value play, especially on DraftKings, where his low $3,700 salary comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating
Kelly Olynyk got 34.2 minutes last game thanks to the injuries in the Heat frontcourt, and he could have an important offensive role if any of their questionable guys end up being ruled out. Olynyk has been stellar with Whiteside, Johnson, and Winslow off the court this season, posting a 69.3 percent true shooting mark and a 115.4 Offensive Rating. He has a sky-high +6.19 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Hawks tonight.
Fast Break
Another guy who should be low-owned but has upside is Al Horford, who owns a massive +5.30 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Indiana Pacers. The Celtics had to play wings Jaylen Brown and Semi Ojeleye at center this weekend sans Theis and Morris, and Horford could definitely be the main big man yet again. Over his past 10 games, he’s averaged a +2.89 DraftKings Plus/Minus on 70 percent Consistency.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
