The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook headlines the PG position today but has not looked like his usual dominant self of late. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of -2.40 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and his per-minute production has dropped to 1.39 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel. While that’s still an outstanding mark, it puts him clearly behind other elite options like Anthony Davis and LeBron James, but today’s matchup with the Hawks gives him a strong bounceback spot. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.05 on DraftKings, where his $11,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Value
At the moment, there doesn’t appear to be a tremendous amount of value at the PG position. One player who could be worth a look is Dennis Smith Jr. He’s been playing more minutes for the Mavericks recently, seeing at least 34 in three of his past five games, and he has averaged 0.93 fantasy points per minute on the season. He has a strong matchup with the Knicks, who have been an absolute disaster recently on the defensive end. They’ve allowed 120.4 points per 100 possessions over their past 11 games, and the Mavs’ implied team total of 109 points represents an increase of almost seven points when compared to their seasonal average (102.3).
Fast Break
Kemba Walker has bombed in three straight games, posting a Plus/Minus of -7.56 or worse on FanDuel in each game. Those have come in some good matchups — the 76ers, the Nets, and the Suns — but his current matchup with the Pelicans is arguably his best yet. The Pelicans have averaged 103.6 possessions per game over their past 11 games, which would be the top full-season mark in the league. Kemba has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.15 on FanDuel, which is the top mark among PGs on today’s slate.
Lonzo Ball has played well recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.65 on FanDuel. He’s increased his production to 1.12 fantasy points per minute, thanks mostly to some positive regression with his shooting numbers. He was just 2-for-11 in his last game, but prior to that he had shot 45.7 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3-point range since the All-Star Break. He’s in a solid spot today against the Denver Nuggets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.81 on FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker has crushed recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.49 over his past 10 games. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 30.8 percent in each of those games, and he leads all SGs with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel. He has an outstanding matchup today with the Cleveland Cavaliers, whose defense hasn’t improved despite the roster overhaul at the trade deadline. Booker has an advantageous Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.92 on FanDuel, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. There are always blowout concerns with the Suns, but they’re just 7.5-point underdogs with today’s game being played at home.
Value
On the other side of the same matchup, Kyle Korver could be a nice source of value on DraftKings. He’s scored at least 20.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.80 on today’s slate. His salary of $3,600 comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Nicolas Batum has been fantastic over the past month, averaging 1.12 fantasy points per minute and an average Plus/Minus of +5.61 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. And yet his salary has actually decreased by $300 for today’s matchup with the Pelicans. It’s an excellent matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.29, and he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is projected for 39 minutes in our NBA Models, and that may be slightly conservative: He’s averaged over 40 minutes per game this season in games without Brandon Ingram and Jordan Clarkson:
He’s averaged over 32 DraftKings points per game in those contests, which would make him a solid value at his current $6,200 salary.
Small Forward
Stud
Most of the top studs on today’s slate are better values on DraftKings, and that includes LeBron James. He has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent, and he leads all SFs with 12 Pro Trends. LeBron has historically been a strong value with a comparable number of Pro Trends and Bargain Rating:
He also has an elite matchup with the Phoenix Suns, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.19, and the Cavs’ implied team total of 118.75 is the top mark on today’s slate.
Value
No one on today’s slate is projected for more minutes than Nemanja Bjelica, who has played at least 40 minutes in three straight games. He’s averaged a very respectable 0.86 fantasy points per minute and has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.93 against the Washington Wizards. He looks like one of the better values of the day on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Otto Porter has been an extremely reliable option for DFS players recently, posting a perfect 90 percent Consistency Rating on DraftKings over the past month. They only time he failed to return value was in his most recent contest, but that was due to playing just 25.5 minutes in a blowout. Despite his production, his salary has actually decreased by $700 on DraftKings over his last 10 games, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Taurean Prince exploded for 56.7 FanDuel points in his last contest, but that’s far from an isolated incident. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games on FanDuel, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +4.94. The Hawks will get Dennis Schroder back from injury today, but Kent Bazemore has been shut down for the rest of the season. Prince may not see as much usage as he did on Sunday, but he should continue to see heavy minutes.
Power Forward
Stud
So Anthony Davis has been pretty good recently:
He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.90 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel, which puts him in pretty elite company: The only other players to hit that threshold and play as many minutes as Davis are Westbrook last season and Steph Curry in 2015. Even at an extremely elevated salary, these players have historically been excellent values:
He has a solid matchup today with the Charlotte Hornets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.27 on FanDuel. The Pelicans are also second on the slate with an implied team total of 117.5 points. Choosing between Davis, LeBron, and Westbrook is going to be difficult, but Davis has shown a ceiling recently that the other two have not been able to match. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $11,200 salary makes him the cheapest option of the three.
Value
Markieff Morris has been one of the biggest winners for the Wizards since the injury to John Wall. He’s upped his fantasy production to 0.94 fantasy points per minute and has seen at least 31.5 minutes in four of his past seven games. Two of the exceptions were blowouts, and he should return to his normal minute load today assuming the game stays competitive.
Fast Break
Finding value on today’s slate is tough, which could give someone like Noah Vonleh some appeal. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.39 against the Los Angeles Clippers. He’s averaged just approximately 19 minutes over his past two games, but he also has 1.04 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Paul Millsap has averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute since returning from injury and ramped up his playing time to approximately 30 minutes per game recently. He has a favorable matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.97 on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns will likely be overlooked on today’s slate, but he arguably offers as much upside as anyone. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle, seeing at least 37.5 in five of his past six games. He has a strong matchup with the Wizards, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.58. He’s yet another stud who’s a better value today on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Brook Lopez has seemingly returned from the dead, scoring at least 33 DraftKings points in four straight games. He has played at least 32 minutes in each of the past three and averaged 1.06 fantasy points per minute this season.
Fast Break
Marcin Gortat continues to play fewer and fewer minutes for the Washington Wizards, and as a result his salary has decreased to $3,700 on FanDuel for today’s matchup with the Timberwolves. He’s maintained a solid per-minute average of 0.85 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and he could see a few additional minutes today against the size of Towns.
Enes Kanter is currently questionable for today’s contest, and if he were to miss it would open up some much needed value. Kyle O’Quinn has been an excellent value recently, but the more appealing option might be Luke Kornet. He’s priced at the absolute minimum on FanDuel, and he poured in 29 fantasy points in 34 minutes in the Knicks’ last game without Kanter.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
