The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
None of the 10 teams that played on Christmas will play today, which makes this slate a little light on premier talent. Kyle Lowry leads the PG position with an $8,200 salary on FanDuel, but it’s going to be tough to trust him given his recent play. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -0.89 over his past 10 games, along with a usage rate above 18.9 percent just once in his past six games. For a guy with an average usage rate of 25.5 percent over the past three seasons, that’s definitely concerning. That said, he does have one of the better matchups of the day at the PG position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94 against the Dallas Mavericks.
Value
George Hill has been a bigger part of the Kings’ rotation recently, playing at least 33 minutes in three straight games. That should continue today given the injury to De’Aaron Fox: Hill has led the team with an average of 34.2 minutes per game in the three games without Fox this season:
He has a solid matchup with the Los Angeles Clippers, who have not been the same defensively at PG since the injury to Patrick Beverley. At just $4,800 on FanDuel and $4,600 on DraftKings, Hill looks like one of the more reliable value options of the day.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic is probable to return today for the Miami Heat, and, assuming he’s not on any sort of minutes restriction, he could be in a favorable spot against the Orlando Magic. For starters, the Magic have been pummeled by opposing PGs all season, allowing the highest average Plus/Minus to the position on DraftKings:
The Heat also have the potential to be really shorthanded for today’s contest, with Hassan Whiteside currently listed as questionable and Dion Waiters, James Johnson, and Justise Winslow already ruled out. So far this season, Dragic has led the team with a usage rate of 30.6 percent with all four players off the court:
This is definitely a situation to monitor throughout the day.
Milos Teodosic is coming off a game with just 17.25 DraftKings points in his last outing, but he did play a season-high 32 minutes in that contest. If he’s going to play that much going forward, he’s almost undoubtedly underpriced at $4,600 on DraftKings given his average of 0.87 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Paying up for today’s top SGs has been wise recently, with Victor Oladipo, DeMar DeRozan, and Khris Middleton all posting Consistency Ratings of at least 92 percent over the past month:
Oladipo has been a revelation this season in Indiana. He’s currently 11th in the league in usage rate and has blossomed with the extra offensive responsibilities, averaging a career-high in both field goal and 3-point percentage despite averaging significantly more shot attempts per game. He doesn’t have a great matchup today with the Detroit Pistons – the Pacers have an implied team total of just 102.25 points – but it’s hard to discount what Oladipo has done all season.
DeRozan has been a usage monster recently, which is not all that surprising given how few possessions Lowry has used. The Raptors have had one of the most undervalued offenses this season, but today’s matchup against the Mavericks isn’t the most ideal for DFS purposes: Dallas is playing at the fourth-slowest pace this season, and the Raptors’ implied team total of 106.75 is nearly five points less than their season average (111.3 points per game).
Middleton isn’t nearly as involved on offense as the other two, but he makes up for it by playing more minutes than just about anyone at the position. His average of 37.2 minutes per game ranks fifth in the league this season, and Middleton has seen at least 38 minutes in four of his past five games. He might be the most appealing option of the group on FanDuel given the Bucks’ slate-high implied team total and his Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Value
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been another reliable source of production at the position recently, posting a Consistency Rating of 92 percent over the past month. He’s taken on a larger role for the Kings over his past seven games in particular, playing at least 28.5 minutes in all but one of them. His matchup with the Clippers should be a good one, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.01.
Fast Break
Rodney Hood has alternated huge performances with duds recently, going for over 37.6 FanDuel points twice and under 16 FanDuel points twice in his past four games. He’s in an intriguing spot today against the Denver Nuggets and owns a pace differential (paceD) of +7.1. He seems underpriced on FanDuel, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Tyreke Evans has not been nearly as consistent as the other top SGs recently, but he has arguably more upside than any of them on today’s slate. He has the best matchup of the group against the Phoenix Suns, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.98 on FanDuel, and he’s averaged over 41 fantasy points per game in six games without Mike Conley and Chandler Parsons:
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo is a true stand-alone stud on today’s slate, costing at least $2,100 more than any other player on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He leads all of today’s players in a variety of categories: projected minutes (39.3), fantasy points per minute (1.47), and Pro Trends (12). No one in the league contributes more than Giannis on the defensive end of the court — he’s averaging 3.26 steals + blocks per game — and the Bucks lead the slate with an implied team total of 109.25 points. Needless to say, he’ll be chalky.
Value
The SF position is pretty barren outside of Giannis on today’s slate. Harrison Barnes has been one of the more undervalued options this season, and his salary has been reduced to $6,300 on FanDuel. That is intriguing, although he has a brutal matchup against the Toronto Raptors, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.30.
Fast Break
Here’s what Josh Richardson has done recently:
The return of Dragic will likely result in a slightly reduced usage rate, but Richardson should continue to see massive minutes for an undermanned Heat squad.
Lance Stephenson rarely plays big minutes for the Pacers, but he’s one of the more productive players at the position on a per-minute basis. His average of 0.91 fantasy points per minute ranks fifth among SFs on today’s slate, and Stephenson’s price tag is significantly lower than those top options.
Allen Crabbe has been playing more minutes than just about anyone for the Nets recently, seeing at least 32.5 in three straight games. Despite his consistent court time, his salary has actually decreased on DraftKings over that time frame, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent for today’s matchup with the Spurs.
Power Forward
Stud
Aaron Gordon is currently questionable with a calf strain and has missed the past four games for the Magic. If he plays and has no restriction, he could be a nice value at just $7,200 on FanDuel: He was listed at $8,200 in his last game, and his current salary results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He doesn’t have a great matchup against the Heat, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.28, but he might be too good of a value to pass up in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
Derrick Favors will continue to start at center in place of the injured Rudy Gobert, which makes him one of the more appealing value options of the day. He hasn’t exactly thrived in this role over his past two games, but he’s been a solid source of value with Gobert out of the lineup over the duration of the season:
He’s played at least 32 minutes in each of his past two games, and his $5,600 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Zach Randolph is in an excellent spot today against the Clippers, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.26 on FanDuel. He’s been awesome recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +7.38 over his past 10 games, and he should be well rested for today’s match. He leads the Kings with a usage rate of 26.9 percent this season, and that number has increased to 27.1 percent with Fox off the court.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has one of the largest pricing discrepancies of the day, owning a $5,900 salary on DraftKings and $7,100 salary on FanDuel. His fair salary is probably closer to the mark on FanDuel, which makes him an excellent option today on DraftKings. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.02 over his past 10 games and has played at least 36 minutes in two of his last three.
Center
Stud
DeAndre Jordan has been a rebounding machine recently, which has increased his season average to a career-best 15.3 per game. He should have a good chance to pull down at least that many today against the Kings, who have been the sixth-worst rebounding team in the league this season. Jordan has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.07 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent. Given the lack of quality options to pay up for at other positions, he will likely be a popular option on today’s slate.
Value
Overall, it seems like it might be a day to pay up at the center position. That said, one potentially intriguing value option could be John Henson, who has been playing more recently for the Milwaukee Bucks. He has a solid matchup against the Chicago Bulls, and, given his average of 0.88 fantasy points per minute, he doesn’t need to play much to pay off his $4,700 salary on DraftKings.
With Nikola Vucevic out indefinitely with a fractured hand, Bismack Biyombo will likely start in his place. Especially on DraftKings, where he’s nearly min-priced at $3,800, he should be a popular value option.
Fast Break
Marc Gasol leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and comparably-priced centers have historically exceeded value:
He has a solid matchup against the Phoenix Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.75 and the top paceD of the day at +8.2.
Andre Drummond has been a major disappointment recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of -3.26 on FanDuel over his past 10 games, but he has a wonderful matchup today against the Pacers. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.36, and he has exceeded value in all three of his previous matchups against them this season:
He leads all centers in ceiling projection and could be slightly underowned given his poor recent production.
News Updates
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Photo via Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
