The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook headlines the PG position on today’s slate. He’s coming off a monster fantasy performance yesterday against the Phoenix Suns, but things shouldn’t come as easy today against the Portland Trail Blazers. Westbrook has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.31 on FanDuel, and the Thunder’s implied team total of 105.5 is one of the lower marks on the slate. The Thunder are also on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, but that could actually work as a positive for Westbrook: He’s crushed in that situation over the past two seasons:
Value
Perhaps no team in the league has been hit harder by injuries this year than the Memphis Grizzlies. They lost star PG Mike Conley for the season early on, and the hits have not stopped coming since. They look like they’re going to be extremely shorthanded today, with Andrew Harrison, Tyreke Evans, and Deyonta Davis already ruled out, and Wayne Selden and JaMychal Green currently questionable. That leaves them especially thin at the PG position, which means Mario Chalmers will likely be in store for a big workload in an elite matchup against the Orlando Magic. This game is not available on the FanDuel main slate for some reason, but Chalmers figures to be one of the chalkiest value options of the day on DraftKings. He’s currently priced at just $4,500 and played almost 34 minutes in this same situation yesterday.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.59 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. The Heat will be shorthanded once again for today’s contest, with both Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington ruled out with injuries. Dragic has been one of the prime beneficiaries with both players off the floor this season, averaging 36.52 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He’s incredibly appealing today on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Isaiah Thomas torched the Heat on Thursday, scoring 44.5 DraftKings points in just under 30 minutes of playing time. He could see some additional time in today’s contest with Brandon Ingram already ruled out with an injury, and Thomas has averaged a usage rate over 30 percent with Ingram off the floor this season:
He does have a tough matchup against the Spurs, but he still might be too cheap to pass up at his current salary on DraftKings, where he comes with a 90 percent Bargain Rating.
Patty Mills has played big minutes for the Spurs recently, seeing at least 33 in three straight games. He has a wonderful matchup against the Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.08 on FanDuel, and he could also see a slight bump in usage with LaMarcus Aldridge ruled out.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Rockets head to Boston tonight to take on the Celtics in the marquee game on the slate. The Rockets are currently 8.5-point favorites, which goes to show just how impressive they’ve been this season. Unfortunately, the total on this game has decreased by 4.5 points since opening, which suggests there could be some sharp money coming in on the under. That would make sense, with the Celtics ranking first and the Rockets ranking seventh in defensive efficiency this season. The decrease in total could be a bad omen for James Harden’s fantasy prospects. Historically, players with comparable salaries have not fared well in those situations:
That said, he still deserves some consideration on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Value
Dwyane Wade has strung together back-to-back big performances for the shorthanded Heat, scoring at least 32.1 FanDuel points in each of his past two games. He’s been dominating possessions for the Heat recently, posting a usage rate of at least 32.9 percent in four of his past five games. He’s been especially impressive since returning to Miami with Johnson and Ellington off the court, averaging 1.38 FanDuel points per minute:
He looks like one of the better values of the day on FanDuel at just $4,800.
Fast Break
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been extremely productive for the Lakers over his past 10 games:
He’s another member of the Lakers who could see a boost in playing time with Ingram on the sidelines: No one on today’s slate is projected for more minutes than KCP in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.98 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel, so his $6,000 salary seems fair given his potential minutes.
Ben McLemore deserves consideration for the shorthanded Grizzlies after playing 30 minutes in yesterday’s contest. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.64 on DraftKings and remains dirt cheap at just $3,500. Stacking Chalmers and McLemore to fit in a couple of the high-priced studs will likely be the default strategy for most players.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James technically failed to exceed salary-based expectations for the first time since the trade deadline in his last game, but he still put up 54.75 DraftKings points. It’s pretty hard to complain about that kind of production. He’s averaged a stout 1.61 fantasy points per minute over the past month and continues to play more minutes than just about anyone else in the league. He’s projected for 38.1 minutes on today’s slate, and that kind of workload gives him one of the safest floors in daily fantasy hoops. LeBron is especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $11,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Value
Rudy Gay likely won’t play many minutes in today’s contest against the Lakers, but he proved in his last game that he doesn’t need much playing time to do a ton of damage. He posted 41 FanDuel points in just over 24 minutes, thanks in part to a usage rate of 32.1 percent. He could be in line for a similar workload today: No one on the team has seen a larger usage bump with Aldridge and Leonard off the floor than Gay:
Gay has an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.42 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
The Heat possess a pair of intriguing SFs on today’s slate. Josh Richardson has been an extremely reliable fantasy option over the past year, owning a Consistency Rating of 85 percent on FanDuel. His minutes should be solidified in the mid-to-high 30s given Miami’s current injury situation, and he’s averaged 0.89 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He seems like a relatively safe investment at $6,100 on FanDuel. Justise Winslow has a little more volatility in his performances, but he offers a nice ceiling and is $2,000 cheaper than Richardson on FanDuel. He’s put up at least 31 FanDuel points in two of his past three games and should see around 30 minutes in today’s contest.
Paul George has arguably been even better than LeBron recently at the SF position, posting a Consistency Rating of 90 percent and Upside Rating of 81 percent over the past month. He’s tied with LeBron for the lead at the position with 12 Pro Trends, and his matchup versus Portland is superior, per Opponent Plus/Minus. George is projected for lower ownership on FanDuel, which makes him an intriguing pivot for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Power Forward
Stud
What has happened to Blake Griffin? He’s posted an awful average Plus/Minus of -6.56 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, resulting in a salary decrease of $1,800 over that time frame. It’s possible that this could be a good opportunity to buy low on him, but there are a lot of things working against him as well. First, he has a difficult matchup against the Heat, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.37 on FanDuel. The Pistons are also on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back, and those two factors combine to give Detroit the second-lowest implied team total on the slate (98.5). There will likely be better spots for him in the future.
Value
The Heat will also be shorthanded in the frontcourt. Bam Adebayo will miss today’s game after playing 30 minutes on Thursday, which will open the door for both James Johnson and Kelly Olynyk to potentially see a bump in playing time. Johnson has been the better fantasy asset over the past month, averaging 0.86 fantasy points per minute, and we currently have him projected for more minutes than Olynyk on today’s slate. Olynyk bombed badly in his most recent start, which could make him an appealing buy-low candidate. It’s possible that both players could wind up playing more than expected if Hassan Whiteside is still stuck in Erik Spoelstra’s dog house.
Fast Break
Paul Millsap has gone right to work after returning from an extended injury, averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute over his past two games. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations by at least 11 points in each of those contests and has an outstanding matchup today against the Cleveland Cavaliers (+6.14 Opponent Plus/Minus). He’s a much better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Center
Stud
It’s officially time to start considering Julius Randle a legit stud center option. He’s shown flashes in the past, but it seems as though the coaching staff is finally committed to giving him big minutes on a consistent basis. He’s played at least 30 minutes in six of his past seven games, including at least 34 minutes in two of his past three. Given his average of 1.18 fantasy points per minute over the past month, he can do a lot of damage at his current $7,500 salary on FanDuel and $7,300 salary on DraftKings when given that kind of opportunity.
Value
Pau Gasol is another member of the Spurs who will likely see a bump in usage with Aldridge sidelined. So far this season, he’s averaged 44.32 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Aldridge and Leonard off the court:
He’s in a potential smash spot against the Lakers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.65. He’s averaged 32.05 DraftKings points per game in five meetings with the Lakers as a member of the Spurs. His current $5,500 salary on DraftKings gives him a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic was on a torrid stretch earlier this month before getting cooled down by the Clippers and Grizzlies in back-to-back contests. That said, he’s in a nice potential bounce-back spot today against the Cavs, who have been a disaster defensively all season. Jokic has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.65 on FanDuel, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 111.5 is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate.
Hassan Whiteside let down a whole lot of people on Thursday, which makes him an intriguing target in GPPs. He has even less competition for minutes today than he did on Thursday, so Spoelstra may have no choice but to play him big minutes against the Pistons’ big frontcourt. Whiteside is an elite talent and can go off against anyone given the opportunity.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Russell Isabella-USA TODAY Sports
