The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:00 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has looked like his old self recently on FanDuel:
His current $10,900 price tag is very reasonable considering his recent production, and he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He leads all players on the slate with 15 Pro Trends, and PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salaries have historically been excellent fantasy assets:
He has a tough matchup on paper against the Utah Jazz, but Westbrook has smashed the Jazz for an average of 58.9 fantasy points and a +6.12 Plus/Minus over the past two seasons. The bigger concern might be his recent shooting numbers: He’s shot a ridiculous 65.5 percent from the field over his past three games, so he’s likely due for regression moving forward.
Value
Shabazz Napier didn’t disappoint as the chalk yesterday, scoring over 35 FanDuel points with average ownership of 68.9 percent. He should be very chalky again today with Damian Lillard still out, and he has arguably an even better matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.62.
Fast Break
Goran Dragic has been ruled out again today, which means Tyler Johnson will draw another start for the Miami Heat. So far this season, Johnson has been an awesome fantasy asset in games without Dragic, averaging 38.4 minutes and 31.17 DraftKings points per game:
He remains quite affordable on DraftKings, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent, and his matchup against the Pelicans results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.33.
The Wizards were very careful with John Wall yesterday, playing him only 16 minutes on the front end of a back-to-back. He should be well rested for today’s game against the Orlando Magic, which could be an absolute smash spot for him: No team in the league has allowed a higher average Plus/Minus to the PG position this season:
There’s a lot of risk involved with Wall, but he has immense upside as well and should come with minimal ownership for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Shooting Guard
Studs
C.J. McCollum was a huge disappointment in his first game this season without Lillard. He didn’t see nearly the usage bump that was expected, and as a result scored just 21.1 FanDuel points in 34 minutes of playing time. That said, he’s in a great spot today against the Lakers, who are playing at the fastest pace in the league this season. He’s increased his usage rate by nearly six percent with Lillard off the court this season – so the potential is there for a big workload – and has averaged over 43 fantasy points per game in the five games without his star teammate:
Victor Oladipo gets to take on the Brooklyn Nets today, which bodes well for his fantasy outlook. He’s scored 82.9 fantasy points in 65.5 minutes of playing time against them this season, and his current 9,300 salary on FanDuel results in a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He leads all SGs with 12 Pro Trends, and the Pacers’ implied team total of 112 points is tied for second on today’s slate.
Value
Wayne Ellington has seen big minutes for the shorthanded Heat recently, playing at least 32 in three straight games. He has a solid matchup today against the New Orleans Pelicans, evidenced by his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.42 on DraftKings. He’s extremely cheap across the DFS industry, owning a $3,900 salary on DraftKings and $3,800 salary on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The Hornets have the potential to be without two of their best players today, with both Kemba Walker and Dwight Howard currently questionable. Jeremy Lamb leads the team with a usage rate of 28.7 percent with both players off the court this season and has averaged just over 37.5 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Nicolas Batum would also become intriguing on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Small Forward
Studs
Today’s battle at the top of the position features the same two players as yesterday. Kevin Durant continues to crush without Stephen Curry, pouring in 68.9 FanDuel points yesterday against the Lakers. We all know what he can do on offense – he’s currently averaging 26.6 points per game with 51-39-88 percent shooting splits – but he’s really elevated his game on the defensive end of the court this season as well. He’s recorded at least two blocks in seven straight games; combining that kind of defensive potential with Durant’s offensive game is almost an unfair advantage.
Speaking of defensive statistics, no one on the slate contributes more in that department than Giannis Antetokounmpo, who averages a ridiculous 3.25 steals + blocks per game. He has a slightly better matchup than Durant today, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.11 on DraftKings against the Hornets. That said, one thing to watch with Giannis moving forward is his minutes now that the Bucks are more healthy. Tony Snell, Matthew Dellavedova, and Jason Terry have all rejoined the team over the past two games, and Giannis’ minute count of 36.5 in his last game was his lowest in nearly three weeks. Still, it might be tough to avoid him on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Value
Wilson Chandler has crushed value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.79 on FanDuel over his past six games:
His salary remains reasonable at $4,700 given his production, and his matchup with the Warriors results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.40.
Fast Break
No one on the Heat has benefited more from their injuries than Josh Richardson, who has gone for at least 43.3 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. He’s been playing some PG in addition to his usual minutes on the wing, which has resulted in him posting the second-highest assist rate on the team in addition to the highest usage rate in games without Dragic this season. He’s one of the better plays of the day on FanDuel at just $6,000 in an excellent matchup with the Pelicans.
The Magic have been extremely shorthanded recently, with Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier joining Terrence Ross on the sidelines. That has resulted in a huge role for Jonathon Simmons, who has posted a usage rate of 28.3 percent with all three players off the court this season:
He’s been able to convert that usage into fantasy points, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.01 over his past 10 games.
Power Forward
Stud
Power forward has been one of the weakest positions all season, and today’s slate is no different. It’s especially difficult on FanDuel, where there’s no multipositional eligibility and the five priciest options all have significantly higher salaries than they do on DraftKings:
It’s hard to justify paying up for any of them in cash games, with all five options owning negative Projected Plus/Minus values. That said, Anthony Davis is probably worth a look in guaranteed prize pools: His ceiling projection is more than 10 points higher than any other player’s at the position.
Values
Derrick Favors played 32 minutes in his last game, and if he’s going to play that much he looks like a major value at his current salary on FanDuel. So far this season, he’s averaged just under 39 fantasy points per 36 minutes in games without Rudy Gobert:
If Howard were to miss today’s contest for the Hornets, Frank Kaminsky would likely draw the start and play heavy minutes. He has a dream matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks, who have been the worst rebounding team in the league, and Kaminsky scored 25.5 FanDuel points in 30 minutes against them yesterday. Marvin Williams should also garner some interest: He scored 34.5 FanDuel points yesterday and is basically the only other healthy big man on the roster besides Kaminsky.
Fast Break
The trade that sent D’Angelo Russell to the Nets for Brook Lopez and the 27th overall draft pick was widely considered a win for Brooklyn, but the player who was selected with that pick is doing his best to change that narrative. Kyle Kuzma posted over 50 fantasy points for the second straight game and is playing all the minutes he can handle at the moment, going for 40-plus in each of the past three games. His salary has reached a season-high on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but fade him at your own risk.
Center
Stud
Nikola Vucevic didn’t get his usual run yesterday in a blowout loss, but he did well to score 36.5 DraftKings points in just 28 minutes of playing time. His salary fell all the way to $8,600 after that performance, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on DraftKings today. He continues to dominate usage for the Magic, posting a usage rate of at least 34 percent in each of his past two games, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends.
Value
Both JaMychal Green and Marc Gasol are doubtful for today’s contest, and their absence would leave the Grizzlies extremely shorthanded in the frontcourt. They’d have no choice but to play Brandan Wright big minutes, who is currently priced at the minimum on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Historically, Wright has been a strong value with a comparable salary and minute projection:
He also has a dream matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, who have been the worst team in the league at defending centers this season.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic is just simply underpriced on DraftKings at only $7,600. He has the talent of a much more expensive player, and he showed that yesterday with a 50.25-point fantasy performance against the Trail Blazers. His matchup today against the Warriors isn’t ideal, but this price tag might be too good to pass up.
DeAndre Jordan has been gobbling up every rebound in sight recently, securing at least 20 in four of his past six games. That kind of rebound ability gives him a really safe floor, and the fact that the Grizzlies will be really thin in the frontcourt only adds to his appeal.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
