The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyle Lowry has one of the best matchups of the day at the PG position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.64 on FanDuel against the Philadelphia 76ers. The Raptors also have the second highest implied team total at 111.25 points, and that total has increased by a slate-high 1.8 points since opening. That said, it’s still going to be hard to trust Lowry given his recent production: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.71 on FanDuel over his past 10 games, and perhaps more importantly, has posted a usage rate of 18.8 percent or lower in each of his past four.
Value
Isaiah Canaan hasn’t wasted any time incorporating himself into his new situation in Phoenix, averaging a Plus/Minus of +11.30 on FanDuel over his first three games. He’s averaged 1.11 fantasy points per minute over that time frame, so he doesn’t need to play many minutes to have a shot at paying off his $3,700 salary.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell sat out yesterday for the Jazz and is questionable again today. Ricky Rubio failed to capitalize on the opportunity, posting just 7.5 fantasy points in 25 minutes of a blowout loss to the Thunder. Still, if Mitchell sits again, Rubio figures to be one of the primary beneficiaries: He’s averaged 26.82 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Mitchell off the court this season. His $5,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
The 76ers are expected to be light on two things today: bodies and floor spacing. One player who could provide both is Jerryd Bayless, who has scored at least 20 fantasy points in back-to-back games despite seeing limited minutes. He’s extremely cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Given Lowry’s minuscule usage over the past four games, it’s no surprise that DeMar DeRozan has handled a lot of the offense for the Raptors over that time frame. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 31.8 percent in all four of those contests, but his fantasy production has been hampered a bit by playing limited minutes in blowout games. If today’s game against the 76ers stays close and DeRozan maintains his recent usage, he’ll have a chance for a big game, given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.04 on FanDuel.
Value
What’s gotten into the Chicago Bulls? After starting the season 3-20, they’ve rattled off seven straight wins heading into today’s contest with the Cleveland Cavaliers. They’ve also been a decent source of value for DFS purposes, and multiple players stand out for them again today given Cleveland’s struggles on the defensive end of the court. Justin Holiday leads the group on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He should be expected to play around 36 minutes if this game stays close – which is a big if given the current 10.5-point spread – and leads all SGs with 10 Pro Trends and an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.13 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Today’s matchup between the Grizzlies and the Suns pits the slowest team in the league against one of the fastest. The result is a massive pace differential (paceD) of +8.2 for the Grizzlies, and while their implied team total of 101.75 doesn’t jump off the page, it is more than five points higher than their season average. One player who possesses some intrigue in this matchup is Tyreke Evans, who has led the team in usage with Mike Conley off the court this season and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.95 on FanDuel.
If Donovan Mitchell is active today, he could be too good of a value to pass up on DraftKings at just $6,700. He’s averaged 1.07 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has been average about 36 minutes per game since joining the starting lineup. If Mitchell is out, Rodney Hood would likely be the biggest beneficiary. He posted a usage rate of 28.8 percent in yesterday’s contest and has led the team in usage with Mitchell off the court this season:
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James is in his own tier on today’s slate, costing at least $2,500 more than every other player on FanDuel. That will likely result in massive ownership for The King, but it’s hard to even consider fading him considering how well he’s played recently. He’s posted a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating on FanDuel over the past month, averaging a ridiculous 1.60 fantasy points per minute over that time frame. The Cavs also don’t seem to have any concerns about overtaxing his body early in the season, with his average of 37.3 minutes per game ranking second in the league. The Cavs lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 112.75 points, and LeBron leads all players with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
David Nwaba is another member of the Bulls in an excellent spot today, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.35 on FanDuel. His minutes have been a bit up and down this season – he played just 19.5 yesterday against the Magic – but his average of 0.86 fantasy points per minute is much higher than what you’d typically see in a comparably priced player. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
JJ Redick has been ruled out today for the 76ers, and no one on the team has seen a larger boost in value than Robert Covington with Redick off the floor this season:
Joel Embiid is also not expected to play in today’s game, which could leave the 76ers extremely shorthanded.
OG Anunoby could be an intriguing punt today given the injury to CJ Miles. Anunoby has been one of the worst per-minute producers in the league over the past month, averaging just 0.51 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel, but he’s coming off a game where he scored more than 30 fantasy points in 31 minutes. He has a solid matchup, as well, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.57 against the 76ers.
Power Forward
Studs
After a slight dip in production over the past few weeks, Ben Simmons has bounced back recently, exceeding value in each of his past three games on FanDuel. He has a tough matchup today against the Toronto Raptors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.24, but he has a chance to dominate possessions for the 76ers if both Redick and Embiid sit out today’s contest. So far this season, he’s increased his usage by almost six percent with both players off the court:
Any additional offense could pay huge dividends for Simmons, who has proven himself to be a savant in virtually every other category as a rookie.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been priced down to $7,500 on FanDuel today, which is his lowest salary since the first game of the season. He does have a tough matchup today with the Utah Jazz, although that matchup is probably not as tough as it seems given the injury to Rudy Gobert. Kawhi Leonard is expected to play today, which will likely impact Aldridge’s usage rate when he’s on the court, but he’s yet to see even 17 minutes of playing time in a game this season.
Value
Derrick Favors returned to the lineup yesterday for the Jazz, but he wasn’t really able to make an impact in his limited court time. Still, he projects to be a nice value at his current salary for as long as Gobert is out: He’s averaged more than 40 DraftKings points per 36 minutes in games without Gobert this season:
The matchup against the Spurs is less than ideal, but he provides more upside than just about anyone in his price range.
Fast Break
Here’s what Serge Ibaka has done recently:
That’s a whole lot of green. He has an exploitable matchup today against the Philly frontcourt, which has been really weak defensively without Embiid this season.
Dario Saric disappointed a bit in his last outing against the Kings, but overall he’s been an excellent fantasy asset of late. He has a chance to play huge minutes given all the 76ers’ injuries, and his floor spacing could be extremely important for them with Redick out of the lineup.
Center
Stud
Marc Gasol is coming off back-to-back big games against the Celtics and Warriors and should face a much easier test today against the Phoenix Suns. Despite their ranks in pace and defensive efficiency, the Suns have actually managed to have some success against centers this season thanks to the defensive prowess of Tyson Chandler. However, this is the second leg of a back-to-back for Phoenix, which means Chandler will likely sit out today’s contest if they stick to their wacky center rotation. That would give Gasol a much easier matchup against either Alex Len or Greg Monroe and could lead to a big fantasy performance in an excellent game environment.
Value
Speaking of the Suns, both Len and Monroe could wind up as excellent values depending on how the minutes are split between them today. Each has averaged over 40 DraftKings points per 36 minutes in games without Chandler this season:
Len is the most logical candidate to assume the majority of the minutes given how he’s played recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +9.55 on DraftKings over his last seven games. Monroe hasn’t played in four of the Suns’ past five games, which could make him a sneaky target for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Fast Break
Pau Gasol played 33 minutes in the Spurs last game and managed to turn those minutes into 49.9 FanDuel points against a tough Portland defense. While it’s almost certain he won’t play that much again today, he doesn’t need to play much to pay off his $4,500 salary given his average of 1.10 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Given how many minutes LeBron plays on a nightly basis, it’s a bit surprising that Kevin Love routinely sees less than 30 for the Cavaliers. With that said, he’s managed to be productive in those minutes recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.47 over his past 10 games, and he has a strong matchup today against the Chicago Bulls. He’s especially appealing on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed:
