The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:30 pm ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook leads the way at the PG position today and appears to be in a wonderful spot against the Warriors. He owns a whopping 16 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary ($11,200) have historically been nice values:
Westbrook also leads all PGs with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.10 and has averaged just under 60 fantasy points per game in his first two meetings with the Warriors this season. As long as this game doesn’t turn into a blowout — which is possible given the 9.5-point spread — it’s hard to envision a scenario in which Westbrook doesn’t hit value.
Value
The Knicks PG situation is an interesting one on today’s slate. Emmanuel Mudiay moved into the starting lineup in their most recent game, but he wound up playing less than both Frank Ntilikina and Trey Burke did off the bench. Burke proved to be the most valuable fantasy asset, scoring 44.8 FanDuel points in his 29 minutes of playing time. All three players have some appeal today, with Mudiay looking like the best value on FanDuel and Burke looking like the best value on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Warriors lead the slate with an implied team total of 121 points, which is a huge number even by their lofty standards. It’s not exactly surprising given the Thunder’s defensive struggles since losing Andre Roberson — they’ve posted a defensive efficiency of 112.3 over their last 10 games — and the Warriors’ implied team total leads the slate by a margin of 7.25 points. One player who has thrived in these type of games is Stephen Curry, who has averaged a historical Plus/Minus of +3.39 with a comparable implied team total:
He’s a better value today on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Goran Dragic crushed the Pelicans yesterday, scoring 55.75 DraftKings points in 37 minutes, and he has another favorable matchup today with the Memphis Grizzlies, who have played at the slowest pace in the league this season, but that hasn’t stopped them from giving up a bunch of fantasy points to opposing PGs. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.65 for Dragic on DraftKings, which is the third best mark for PGs projected for at least 20 minutes of playing time.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jimmy Butler’s camp has “some optimism” that he didn’t tear his ACL, but it still seems certain that he’s going to miss some time. Andrew Wiggins should be one of the primary beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by 4.1 percent with Butler off the court this season, resulting in an average of 29.66 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
Wiggins averaged 35.5 FanDuel points per game during a four-game stretch without Butler earlier this season and has a wonderful matchup today with the Chicago Bulls. Minnesota’s implied team total of 112.75 points ranks third on the slate, while Wiggins has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.75.
Value
Andrew Harrison has SG eligibility on DraftKings in addition to PG eligibility across the industry and could be forced into a huge role today for the Memphis Grizzlies. They’ll be without Tyreke Evans, Chandler Parsons, and Wayne Selden for tonight’s contests, which will leave them pretty thin in the backcourt. Harrison has averaged 0.90 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 32.8 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Fast Break
Portland has arguably the best matchup of the day against the Phoenix Suns, who will be playing on a back-to-back after giving up 128 points to the Clippers last night. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.83 for CJ McCollum, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games. He’s a better value today on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Jamal Crawford could also see a bump in playing time for the Timberwolves given the injury to Butler. He’s averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need to play much to have a shot to return value at $3,800 on FanDuel.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is the highest priced SF on both sites and should be a popular target in a #RevengeGame against the Thunder. It’s an awesome matchup for Durant, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.49 on DraftKings. Durant has historically fared well when facing his old team:
He’s extremely appealing on DraftKings, where his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica is the lock-and-load value play of the day. He’s averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has averaged over 30 minutes per game with Butler out of the lineup this season. In his first six games without Butler, Bjelica has posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.60:
He’s priced down to $3,400 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel, which is going to make him very tough to avoid on today’s slate.
Fast Break
Michael Beasley could be an interesting buy-low option on today’s slate. He played just 23 minutes and posted a usage rate of just 10.7 percent in his last game, both of which are drastically lower than the rest of his recent marks. If he can see an uptick in both categories, he’ll have a chance to be a nice value at his reduced salary. Still, he does have a really difficult matchup against the Boston Celtics, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.60.
Maurice Harkless has seen a nice bump in playing time recently with at least 25.5 minutes in each of his last five games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of those contests, and his current matchup with the Suns could be beneficial for him in multiple ways. He has an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.78 on FanDuel, which ranks first among all of today’s SFs. He could also potentially see a few additional minutes if this game turns into a blowout, which is always a possibility with the Suns. He’s priced at the minimum on FanDuel at $3,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
Draymond Green has been rolling recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.22 over the four games before the All-Star Break. He’s done it in typical Draymond fashion by piling up tons of peripheral statistics. Like Curry, he’s also historically thrived in games with a comparable implied team total:
He should be an extremely popular option today given the lack of depth at the PF position.
Value
Al-Farouq Aminu is another member of the Blazers who finds himself in a wonderful spot today. He’s played at least 32.5 minutes in three of the past five games and has averaged 0.85 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.56 on FanDuel, where his $4,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Ed Davis could also be a factor in the same matchup. He likely wont play as many minutes — we currently have him projected for just 20.2 — but he’s averaged a stout 1.08 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s priced at nearly the minimum at $3,600 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 97 percent.
Fast Break
The hate on Carmelo Anthony may have gone too far. Melo has been priced down to $5,700 on FanDuel, which is lower than he’s ever been in our database. He’s obviously not the player in Oklahoma City that he was in New York or Denver, but he’s still averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.60 and leads all PFs with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
JaMychal Green racked up a double-double last night against the Cavs despite seeing just 24 minutes in a blowout. He should get closer to 30 minutes tonight if the game stays close, and Green has averaged 1.02 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s very affordable at just $4,400 on DraftKings and $4,700 on FanDuel.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns hasn’t seen the bump in value that some of his teammates have enjoyed with Butler off the court, but he’s still really appealing today against the Chicago Bulls. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.56 on FanDuel, but that likely undersells how good this matchup is. The Bulls are expected to start Cristiano Felicio, who has graded out as the worst defensive center in the league per Defensive Real Plus/Minus (DRPM). The Bulls have also grabbed just 49.1 percent of available rebounds with Robin Lopez off the floor this season, which would be the seventh worst full-season mark in the league. Paying up for Towns instead of Westbrook, Durant, or Curry could be an interesting way to increase your chances of having a contrarian lineup on FanDuel.
Value
One reason why Towns won’t be all that popular on FanDuel is the presence of Alex Len, who has been dominant in his last two games without Tyson Chandler, scoring at least 37.1 FanDuel points in both. Chandler is not expected to play again today, which makes Len an elite value option at just $4,500.
Fast Break
Hassan Whiteside saw 33 minutes for the Heat yesterday, albeit in a game that went into overtime. Still, that would put him at around 28 minutes in regulation, which is enough playing time to make him intriguing at $6,700 on DraftKings. He has averaged 1.31 fantasy points per minute over the past month and could potentially see a few additional minutes today to combat the size of Marc Gasol on the interior.
Finally, Steven Adams could have some appeal today against the Warriors. He’s played at least 39 minutes in two of his last three games and has averaged 0.97 fantasy points per minute this season. He also has a solid matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.90 on FanDuel.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Photo credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
