The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tonight we have a nine-game main slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The two studs on the slate, Russell Westbrook and Damian Lillard, are on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of how they’ve fared this again against tonight’s opponents. Westbrook has a +7.68 average Plus/Minus against the Pelicans this season. Lillard, however, has a -12.07 average Plus/Minus against the Grizzlies.
Value
With George Hill and Kyle Korver out, Jose Calderon projects for roughly 26 minutes and is a viable punt play against Dallas.
Fast Break
Isaiah Taylor‘s price has shot up, but he’ll continue to be an option as long as Dennis Schroeder is out. Taylor has played at least 29 minutes in each of his past three games, and has an average Plus/Minus of +5.34 on FanDuel over his past 10 contests, with a Consistency Rating of 80%.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell‘s projected Plus/Minus in our NBA Models is more than five points higher than any shooting guard who’s priced higher than him on DraftKings. He has a +3.56 average Plus/Minus over his past 10 games and has exceed salary-based expectation in 70% of those games.
Value
Josh Hart played 34 minutes in his first game back on Friday. With Lonzo Ball (knee) doubtful, only Mitchell has a higher projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel than Hart, who’s projected for more than 30 minutes tonight against the Kings.
Fast Break
Jordan Clarkson should also benefit from Hill’s absence, though it’s worth noting he didn’t crack 30 FanDuel points in March despite playing at least 25 minutes nine times. Clarkson is a low-ceiling investment.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James comes with blowout risk against the Mavericks, but he’s been money in the bank at home this season:
Giannis Antetokounmpo has a better projected Plus/Minus than James, though. The Greek Freak scored 77.25 DraftKings points in his last meeting with Denver.
There’s blowout risk for Kevin Durant against Phoenix, as the Warriors are 15.5-point favorites tonight. If you are going to play him, consider him on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Harrison Barnes is rated tops all small forwards in the trusty Phan Model on DraftKings. His Opponent Plus/Minus clocks in at a ridiculous +6.4.
Fast Break
The Phan Model rates Paul George as the top small forward on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90%. George leads the position with 14 Pro Trends and projects to be the highest-owned option at the position. His Opponent Plus/Minus is +3.07 as he travels to New Orleans to visit the Pelicans.
Power Forward
Stud
No player on the entire slate is projected for a higher Plus/Minus than Anthony Davis tonight on FanDuel. The Pelicans are at home against the Thunder, and Davis’ home/road splits skew heavily toward his home floor:
Value
With the Suns in tank mode, Marquese Chriss has really come on, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of his past seven games on FanDuel. He’s projected as the top non-Brow value at the position tonight as Phoenix visits the Warriors.
Fast Break
Jerrell Martin and Ivan Rabb should benefit from JayMichael Green’s absence for Memphis. Martin projects for close to 30 minutes while Rabb is in the low 20s, but it’s Rabb who leads all power forwards in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings. He’s priced just $3,100 and has a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic has a matchup against the Bucks at home, where like most centers, he’s produced more value on FanDuel:
Andre Drummond has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and also leads the position in Opponent Plus/Minus (+6.58) by over two points.
Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled in three games against Utah this season:
Value
Atlanta’s duo of Dewayne Dedmon and Mike Muscala sit atop the rankings in our NBA Models. Dedmon has a +2.31 average Plus/Minus and a 70% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games. Muscala has been even better over his past 10 contests, averaging a +3.26 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert averages a +11.7 FanDuel Plus/Minus in two games against the Timberwolves this season.
Pictured above: Anthony Davis.
Photo credit: Troy Taormina — USA TODAY Sports.
