The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a four-game slate main slate on DraftKings and five-game main slate on FanDuel, both of which start at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Despite being a relatively small slate, the PG position is loaded at the top. Russell Westbrook is the clear headliner, and he has a solid matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers. His Opponent Plus/Minus isn’t all that noteworthy at +1.87 on FanDuel, but Westbrook absolutely eviscerated them last season:
His numbers this year have been much less impressive over their first two matchups, but the Thunder have won each game by at least 24 points and Westbrook has yet to play more than 28 minutes. If the Lakers can keep this game competitive – which is a big if – Westbrook’s ceiling on this slate is unmatched.
Kyle Lowry’s salary continues to decrease across the industry. He’s currently priced at just $7,000 on FanDuel, and there’s only been one previous instance from the past four seasons where Lowry has had a cheaper price tag. His overall numbers have been plagued by reduced minutes in a string of blowouts recently, but Lowry has historically provided excellent value when priced below $7,500:
He does have a tough matchup with the Memphis Grizzlies, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.80, but the Raptors’ implied team total of 109.75 is only a slight decrease from their season average (111.6).
Damian Lillard might be the best value at the PG position on FanDuel, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He’s averaged 1.21 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which trails only Westbrook at the position. That said, he does have a brutal matchup with the Boston Celtics, who have ranked first in defensive efficiency for the entire season. It should also be noted that this game is taking place at 12 p.m. ET, which is the equivalent of 9 am in Portland. There’s only a small, two-game sample size in our database, but West coast teams playing at 12 p.m. ET have historically done quite well:
One of those teams was the Blazers, and Lillard went for 55.3 fantasy points against the Nets in this situation earlier this season. If the public is seems to be concerned about the game time for the Portland players, it could make sense to be overweight on them for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
The Knicks have the best matchup of the day at the position against the Atlanta Hawks. Jarrett Jack continues to start, although his minutes have fluctuated a bit recently. He did play over 30 minutes in the Knicks most recent game, however, and has averaged 0.84 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Terry Rozier has smashed in relief of Kyrie Irving, becoming the first player in NBA history to have a triple-double and a 30-point game in his first two starts. That said, he’s been priced way up for today’s contest against the Portland Trail Blazers, who will represent the stiffest defensive test so far for Rozier. He’s obviously too expensive if Irving plays, but he’s shown the ability to put up huge performances if he does earn another start.
Andrew Harrison has been the biggest beneficiary of the Grizzlies’ decision to shut down Tyreke Evans until after the trade deadline. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games and has seen a four percent usage bump with Evans, Mike Conley, and Chandler Parsons off the court this season:
He has a tough matchup with the Toronto Raptors but provides solid upside for GPPs at just $4,600 on DraftKings.
Shooting Guard
Stud
CJ McCollum has seen a major price decrease on FanDuel in anticipation of the tough early matchup with the Celtics. His price dropped from $7,900 to $6,500 in just one game, despite the fact that he’s averaged 1.08 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Like Lillard, he did find success in this same situation earlier this year, scoring 41.9 FanDuel points in a noon tipoff with the Nets. He leads all SGs with 10 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Value
Wayne Selden put up a clunker in his most recent game but still figures to see close to 30 minutes of playing time at a near-minimum salary. He’s averaged 0.73 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and players with comparable minute projections, salaries, and per minute productivities have historically been strong values:
Fast Break
Tim Hardaway Jr played 34 minutes in his last game, which is his most playing time since returning from his recent injury. He has an awesome matchup against the Hawks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.11 on DraftKings, and this is technically a #RevengeGame. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Khris Middleton has been a really steady producer over his last 10 games:
Middleton has averaged 0.99 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and no one at the position is projected to play more than his 36.4 minutes. He has a solid matchup with the Brooklyn Nets, who rank 21st in defensive efficiency and sixth in pace this season.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo stands in his own tier at SF on today’s slate. Not only is he the priciest option on the slate by a significant margin, he also has possibly the best matchup at the position against the Brooklyn Nets. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.30 on FanDuel, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 107 points ranks third on the slate. He has not played as many minutes under interim coach Joe Prunty, but his current projection of 36.8 minutes is still the top mark in our NBA Models. He should be one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Value
Jaylen Brown has cooled off a bit after a torrid start to the season, but he has a chance to assume a larger role on offense given the injury to Irving. He played 33.5 minutes in his most recent game and has seen a slight bump in both usage and production with Irving off the court this season.
Fast Break
The one constant for the Nets this season has been DeMarre Carroll. He’s played 35 minutes in each of their last two games and has averaged 0.91 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings over the past month. He does have a difficult matchup against the wing defenders of the Milwaukee Bucks, but he’s just flat-out underpriced across the industry.
Taurean Prince has not had the most consistent playing time this season, but he is capable of producing when given the chance. He recorded more than 50 fantasy points in his most recent game, which is awesome production considering his current $4,800 salary. He’s seen at least 30 minutes in three of his last five games and has averaged 0.80 fantasy points per minute on the season.
Power Forward
Stud
Kristaps Porzingis has been a disaster recently, posting a Plus/Minus of -5.88 or worse in five of his past seven games on FanDuel. It’s been suggested that his skinny frame just can’t handle the wear and tear of the NBA season, and his results have reflected that after a strong first month of the season. But he does have an intriguing matchup today with the Atlanta Hawks. The Knicks’ implied team total of 109 points ranks second on the slate and represents an increase of almost five points when compared to their season average (104.2). The Hawks have also been the fifth-worst rebounding team in the league this season, which gives Porzingis some additional potential in that department. There’s obviously a lot of risk with Porzingis, but he does have significant upside at what should be modest ownership.
Value
If Irving is out again, Jayson Tatum could be in a really nice position against the Trail Blazers today. He posted a usage rate of 29.6 percent in his last game – the highest mark of his young career – and converted that usage into 48.3 FanDuel points. His salary remains reasonable at $6,400, and he could see some additional minutes if Marcus Morris is unable to suit up as well.
Fast Break
Ed Davis has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent on FanDuel and has averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.72 over his past 10 games. He’s averaged 1.0 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value at just $3,800.
Carmelo Anthony has taken a clear backseat to Westbrook and Paul George for the Thunder, but he still has the ability to produce in certain situations. The Lakers are one of the best matchups possible for PFs, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.26 on FanDuel. He leads all PFs with nine Pro Trends and has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Center
Stud
Enes Kanter is in the midst of a really good stretch, exceeding salary-based expectations in 13 of his past 15 games on FanDuel. His excellent production has resulted in a season high salary of $7,000, but that still might not be high enough in an elite matchup against the Atlanta Hawks. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.04 and has seen at least 29 minutes in three of his past four games. If he gets that much playing time today, he could smash.
Value
Jonas Valanciunas is another center in really good recent form. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.61 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, where he currently has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.45 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which is more than every other player on DraftKings’ main slate. Valanciunas could also be asked to play more minutes than usual to combat the size of Marc Gasol, which only increases his appeal.
Fast Break
No one on the Celtics has seen a larger usage bump with Irving and Marcus Smart off the floor than Al Horford:
Horford delivered in his most recent contest despite only being needed for 29 minutes, although he does have a slightly tougher matchup today with the Portland Trail Blazers. He’s intriguing for GPPs.
Julius Randle leads all centers on FanDuel with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent. He’s been strong on a per-minute basis all season, averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute, and he logged 32 minutes of playing time in his most recent contest. If he logs that many minutes again today, he could be a major value at his current salary.
Good luck!
Photo via Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
