The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate, using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook has looked very much like his old self recently, at least in terms of his usage rate. He’s posted an average usage rate of 36.0 percent over his past 10 games, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +4.68 on FanDuel. He has a strong matchup today against the Philadelphia 76ers (+3.07 Opponent Plus/Minus). This is also a solid pace-up spot for the Thunder, with OKC ranking 19th in pace this season, while the 76ers rank fourth. Westbrook leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Chris Paul has seen his minutes rise for the Rockets recently, and he has responded with some absolutely dominant performances. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +14.93 on DraftKings over his past four starts, yet remains affordable at just $8,600. Paul has a very tough matchup today against the San Antonio Spurs, with the Rockets’ implied team total of 110.25 points representing a decrease of nearly 10 points when compared to their average point total during their 11-game winning streak.
Value
The Clippers have been hit extremely hard by injuries this season and will be shorthanded for today’s contest with the Washington Wizards. Both Austin Rivers and Milos Teodosic won’t suit up at the PG position, leaving Jawun Evans as one of the most logical candidates to see an increased workload. He played 25.5 minutes in the Clippers’ last game, and scored in 18.25 DraftKings points. He doesn’t need to do much more than that today to pay off his dead-minimum salary.
Fast Break
Damian Lillard has had a poor start to the season by his standards, making him one of the top candidates to see some positive regression moving forward. Perhaps that will come today against the Orlando Magic, who have been the second-worst team in the league against the PG position on FanDuel:
Lillard has been playing a tremendous amount of minutes recently, and no one on the slate is projected to play more than his 39.7 today.
Jamal Murray is coming off back-to-back big games against the Pistons and Celtics and gets a much more fantasy-friendly matchup today with the New Orleans Pelicans. He’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury to Will Barton, who’s currently questionable for today’s contest. The Nuggets’ implied team total of 111.75 ranks third on today’s slate, and Murray’s Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.24 on FanDuel trails only Lillard’s at the position.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden presents an interesting decision on today’s slate. On one hand, he has a brutal matchup with the Spurs (-2.28 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel). Harden has also really struggled in this matchup historically, owning an average Plus/Minus of -9.24 over 18 appearances in the past three seasons:
That said, his salary has been reduced by a pretty significant amount across the DFS industry, which lowers the bar he needs to clear in order to return value. He should also come at an ownership discount to some of the other studs on the slate – we currently have him projected for 17-20 percent ownership on FanDuel and 13-16 percent ownership on DraftKings – which increases his appeal for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Value
No one on the slate has been a more reliable source of value than E’Twuan Moore, who leads all players with a Consistency Rating of 90 percent over the past year. He’s been on a roll recently, as well, with an average Plus/Minus of +6.28 over his past 10 games, thanks in part to his massive amount of playing time over that period. He appears to be in another solid spot today, with the Pelicans owning the second highest implied team total on the slate.
Fast Break
The return of Rodney Hood didn’t seem to hurt Donovan Mitchell in the slightest, as he played 37 minutes and scored more 50 fantasy points in his last game against the Chicago Bulls. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.09 for today’s contest with the Boston Celtics and appears underpriced on DraftKings, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Tyreke Evans is currently questionable for today’s contest, but if active, he’s in a wonderful spot against the Atlanta Hawks. Evans will serve mainly as a PG despite his SG eligibility, and the Hawks have been awful against PGs ever since handing the reigns to Dennis Schroder. This is also the fifth game in seven nights for Atlanta, making the idea of targeting Tyreke and the Grizzlies even more appealing.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo stands in his own tier at the position today, with his $12,500 salary on FanDuel making him nearly $5,000 more expensive than every other player. Giannis has been one of the prime beneficiaries from the injuries to Tony Snell and Matthew Dellavedova, averaging more than 41 minutes per game in the three contests without them this season:
Both players are slated to miss today’s contest as well, which means that Giannis should continue to amass more playing time than just about anyone. Given his average of 1.48 fantasy points per minute over the past month, that gives him one of the safest floors and highest ceilings on today’s slate.
Value
Sam Dekker plays for the Clippers and isn’t injured at the moment, which automatically puts him into consideration for DFS purposes. Dekker has scored at least 21.3 fantasy points in back-to-back games and has historically returned value with a comparable minute projection:
Given his $4,300 salary on FanDuel and $3,700 salary on DraftKings, he doesn’t need to do much to return value.
Fast Break
David Nwaba disappointed a bit in his last start but has still been an extremely productive player over his past 10 games:
He has a much better matchup today against the Milwaukee Bucks (+2.15 Opponent Plus/Minus), and he should continue to play in the vicinity of 30 minutes a night.
Trevor Ariza has played big minutes for the Rockets recently, seeing at least 34 in four straight games. He has a minute projection of 35.7 for today’s matchup with the Spurs, and Ariza has historically been an awesome value with a comparable minute projection and salary:
Power Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons has cooled way down after a torrid start to the season, posting an average Plus/Minus of -4.41 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. But his salary has plummeted to $9,200, which makes him an appealing buy-low option today against the Oklahoma City Thunder. For one, Simmons has crushed this season in seven games with a comparable salary:
Plus, Joel Embiid is also questionable for today’s game with a back injury, which could open the door for a larger offensive role for Simmons. So far this season, he’s seen the largest usage increase on the team with Embiid off the court:
Any additional production on the offensive end would be massive for Simmons given that he’s already an incredible contributor with the peripheral statistics: He ranks 16th in rebounds, fourth in assists, and second in steals this season.
Value
Trey Lyles is coming off a season-high 33 minutes in his last contest and could see a similar workload today against the New Orleans Pelicans. The Pelicans are obviously one of the biggest teams in the league, and the Nuggets will likely need Lyles’ size to combat DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis. Lyles has averaged 0.93 fantasy points per minute this season, so he’s been pretty effective when given the opportunity to play.
Fast Break
The Spurs are in one of the top pace-up spots of the day, with their players owning a pace differential (paceD) of +6.1. One player who could potentially benefit from the extra possessions is LaMarcus Aldridge, who has seen his salary decline a bit on FanDuel despite exceeding salary-based expectations in three straight games. While the return of Kawhi Leonard will likely hurt him in the long run, Kawhi played just 15 minutes in his first game and should be extremely limited again today.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson continues to be massively underpriced on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He’s crushed now in five straight games, highlighted by a 48.25-point performance on Thursday against the Knicks. He has a much tougher matchup today against the Raptors (0.91 Opponent Plus/Minus), but he’s just too good of a value to pass up at the moment.
Lauri Markkanen was a super late scratch on Wednesday, which is unfortunately because it didn’t give us time to pivot over to Nikola Mirotic. He unsurprisingly crushed, scoring more than 37.5 fantasy points for the second consecutive game, and Mirotic would be a top value target if Markkanen were to miss today’s contest as well.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond made easy work of the Atlanta Hawks yesterday, scoring 55.8 FanDuel points in just 32 minutes. He has another excellent matchup today against the Indiana Pacers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.34 on FanDuel. The Pacers have been one of the worst rebounding teams over the last two seasons, and Drummond has scored at least 43.5 FanDuel points in both matchups against them this year.
Value
It’s almost never wise to trust Jonas Valanciunas, but he is coming off two straight games with at least 37.25 DraftKings points. Those have come in plus matchups against the Clippers and the Suns, and things aren’t going to get much tougher today against the Brooklyn Nets: Valanciunas has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.07, and the Raptors lead the slate with an implied team total of 115 points.
Fast Break
There are literally tons of elite centers priced at a massive discount on DraftKings today:
Virtually all of these options are in play for GPPs, and it might make sense to utilize the utility spot to roster more than one.
Good luck!
News Updates
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