NASCAR at Texas DraftKings Picks: DFS Strategy for Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500

Today’s race at Texas Motor Speedway is the third 1.5-mile race in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. The previous two races at Las Vegas and Kansas used the same right-side tire that will be used today. With plenty of low tire wear 1.5-mile data, we should have a solid foundation to find dominators and value plays for today’s 500-mile race.

NASCAR at Texas DraftKings Dominator Picks

Kevin Harvick ($11,700) — Harvick is today’s most likely dominator, but I think he’s an interesting underweight candidate for tournament formats.

Harvick was a bit off the pace in relation to other top-tier drivers at the Las Vegas playoff race. That’s important because Vegas used the same tire package that will be employed today at Texas. Harvick’s price tag is a bit steep if he isn’t a dominator, especially because without a top-three finish, he’ll pick up enough negative place differential to not be worth his price tag.

If you’re using him, you’re counting on him being at least a minor dominator with a top-five finish, at bare minimum.

Denny Hamlin ($10,800) — Hamlin is one of my bets to win today’s race, and as one of the race favorites he should be in your dominator pool. Hamlin is coming off an outing where he tagged the wall, relegating him to a seventh-place starting position. Recency bias and a starting position slightly deeper in the field may reduce his ownership slightly.

Hamlin and Chase Elliott were stage winners at the playoff races at Las Vegas and Kansas. There’s little reason to assume Hamlin shouldn’t be among the favorites today.

Martin Truex Jr. ($10,200) — Truex rolls off sixth and probably flies under the radar relative to Harvick, Hamlin and Elliott. Truex didn’t light the world on fire at the two playoff races at Las Vegas and Kansas. However, he performed exceptionally well at other corollary races.

Truex has finishes of second, third, third and third at Kansas 1, Kentucky and Michigan 1 & 2, respectively, which aside from the first Las Vegas race make up the other four races that use at least one side of tires that will be used in today’s race.

I don’t think he’s the top dominator, but he certainly has dominator potential. The biggest draw for me is that his usage may be depressed thanks to three or four other top-tier drivers who will be preferred by the community.

Other dominator candidates in order of my usage preference in tournaments: Elliott, Alex Bowman, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Kyle Busch

NASCAR at Texas DraftKings Value Picks

Clint Bowyer ($8,700) — Bowyer has finishes of second, 11th and 11th at the three Texas races that used this aerodynamic package. He starts 21st today, which puts him five starting positions ahead of Jimmie Johnson. Johnson is only $700 more expensive, so he will likely be played in more lineups than Bowyer. Johnson is a fine play in all formats, but that price tag means you won’t be able to fit in dominators as easily.

That makes Bowyer a nice pivot play off of Johnson and give more flexibility in your lineup.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,700) — As much as Bowyer is a nice pivot play, DiBenedetto may be the ultimate pivot play in the $7,000 to $8,900 price range. Along with Bowyer and Johnson, plenty of people will eye Tyler Reddick and Erik Jones, but I like DiBenedetto when we factor in expected usage, upside and price.

Here are DiBenedetto’s finishes at the tracks where at least one side of tires is the same at today at Texas: 2, 3, 17, 15, 7, 2, 12. The 8.3 average finish is worth it at $7,700 from the 14th-place starting position. But that’s just average finish. His three finishes of third or better show plenty of upside.

I’ll take a lower-owned driver with top-three upside, and an average finish that could even get him in the winning lineup.

Matt Kenseth ($7,100) — Kenseth is obvious chalk this weekend, but I think he’s probably chalk that we have to eat. Aside from a DNF last weekend at Kansas, which could sour DFS players, Kenseth has had five straight solid finishes at corollary races. He has no finishes worse than 18th, with an average finish of 17th.

By rolling off 32nd, that gives him 15 points worth of place differential that should happen on a normal day for him. That’s six times his value, which is huge for a driver priced in the lower-to-middle portion of the pack.