NASCAR at Talladega DraftKings Picks: DFS Strategy for Sunday’s YellaWood 500

The final superspeedway of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season takes place today at Talladega. The 2.66-mile track will undoubtedly produce a lot of intense pack racing. That also means the potential for multiple big wrecks and surprise finishes.

Only about 10-15% of the variability in finishing position at Talladega can be predicted by even the most sophisticated statistical models. On the flip side, driver utilization is extremely predictable. As a result, some drivers are nearly certain to be rostered either too little or too much. We can then smartly adjust our exposure in the opposite direction.

Let’s talk about how to strategize around today’s chalk, then shift gears toward the drivers I like as contrarian plays.

NASCAR at Talladega DraftKings DFS Strategy

Based off of starting position and performance expectations, here are the drivers I expect to be the highest owned:

1. Brendan Gaughan
2. Tyler Reddick
3. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Brendan Gaughan started dead last at the Coke Zero 400 in Daytona and was rostered in only 45% of lineups. He starts dead last again today, but may be used slightly more thanks to the dearth of options starting in positions 31-39. During his four years with Beard Motorsports, Gaughan has finished inside the top 12 seven out of 15 times. The other eight finishes were 19th or worse. A top-12 finish would almost certainly put Gaughan in the winning lineup. That 47% success rate is close enough to his expected ownership that you should roll with him around his past success rate. But you should adjust that exposure based off the other chalk in your lineup (more on that in a moment).

Tyler Reddick will probably be used way too much as the fastest driver starting 30th or worse. He no doubt has the ability to win, but I’d consider an underweight play on him.

Stenhouse has more uncertainty in his projected usage, and like Reddick clearly has the ability to win. Stenhouse was rostered in 47% of lineups for the Coke Zero 400, but that was when he started 31st, with Chase Elliott starting 27th. Stenhouse now rolls off from 26th, with only Reddick as a top superspeedway option starting behind him. I expect him to be used in approximately 40% of lineups.

Strategy: Stenhouse is the key here. He has finished in the top 10 in 64% of his races at Talladega, so I don’t mind an equal or overweight play on him. However, how you execute that is the key to this strategy.

In lineups that you do play Stenhouse, I’d look to be underweight on Gaughan. In lineups that you don’t use Stenhouse, I’d look to be overweight on Gaughan. That’s because if there is carnage, Stenhouse and Gaughan are more likely to be anti-correlated. Stenhouse has had a successful finish in only two of Gaugahn’s seven successful finishes. That’s likely because Gaughan benefits when stronger cars wreck. Stenhouse projects to be one of the stronger cars.

In either case, I think underweight on Reddick (less than 45% used in each Stenhouse scenario) is the prudent play. There are other solid options around Reddick and enough of a chance that he crashes or has other issues that he shouldn’t be used as much as his projected ownership.

NASCAR at Talladega DraftKings Contrarian Picks

Aric Almirola ($8500): Big names draw ownership and that could leave Almirola flying under the radar among the playoff drivers. Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin are all accomplished superspeedway drivers. Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr., and Kyle Busch are past champions. Chase Elliott is NASCAR’s most popular driver.

That leaves Almirola with the potential to fly under the radar. He’s quietly put up eight straight finishes of ninth or better at Talladega. That streak includes:

• Finishes of third and fourth in his last two races
• A win in 2018 with his current team
• Two top-five finishes with mid-tier Richard Petty Motorsports

The strategy here is to almost completely fade the front two rows. At Daytona, the front four drivers combined for 44% ownership. My statistically optimal ownership projections show they should be used in around 20-25% of lineups. That leaves room to go overweight elsewhere.

At Daytona, Almirola started fifth and was used in 9% of lineups. The 11th-place starter, Kyle Busch, was 10% owned. As today’s 11th-place starter, I project Almirola for around 15% usage.

Using Almirola 20% or even slightly more is reasonable given his consistency and recent form at Talladega.

John Hunter Nemechek ($5600): Nemecheck has finished 11th or better in all three superspeedway races so far in his Cup Series career. That doesn’t make him elite by any means, but he has the speed to at least put up a solid finish if he survives the carnage.

Most people know about place differential, so if they pivot off the chalk it will likely be to drivers starting farther back in the field. That means Corey LaJoie, Ty Dillon or Bubba Wallace, all of whom start behind Stenhouse, are going to be used significantly more than Nemechek.

Daniel Suarez ($5800): The drivers starting 31st through 39th make up the lower tier of cars. However, there are three cars clear above the rest in this tier. They are: the No. 96 of Gaunt Brothers Racing, the No. 15 of Premium Motorsports and the No. 77 of Spire Motorsports.

Of this trio of cars, that No. 96 car driven by Suarez starts closest to the front and also has the worst results of 2020 at superspeedways. This could keep his usage down relative to the other two cars.