Tonight’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Richmond is scheduled for 400 laps. Richmond also tends to have very few cautions, so we’re looking at plenty of fastest lap opportunities, as well.
With so many dominator points available, they will be key to winning a DFS tournament. I’d recommend mixing and matching dominator candidates. I have them ranked below according to my projected likelihood of dominance.
That said, it’s also important to hit on your value plays. With such a low variance track, it’s okay to go heavy on the chalk this weekend. With the dominators so important, it’s prudent to mix and match 2-3 of them in every single one of your DFS lineups.
That means a stars and scrubs approach is reasonable. However, there are also several solid options in the $8500-$6500 range, so two dominators with more balance is also viable. In other words, nailing the value picks is essential.
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NASCAR at Richmond DraftKings DFS Dominator Picks
When talking dominators, we have to start with Kevin Harvick ($11,300). He sits on the pole for tonight’s race, and is one of two drivers to post at least 25 fastest laps at both Phoenix and New Hampshire. These two tracks are Richmond’s top two comparable tracks, and they both also used the same tire compound as Goodyear is bringing to tonight’s race.
Harvick has top-five finishes in all seven races at these three tracks in 2018 and 2020, the years that NASCAR ran the low downforce package.
Next up is the outside pole-sitter, Joey Logano ($9300). His track position makes him the next most likely candidate to dominate after Harvick. He also has only the eighth-highest price tag, but is likely at worst a top-six candidate overall. He’s had the fourth-best average green flag speed at both Phoenix and New Hampshire, and a strong showing at Darlington will leave him with excellent pit selection.
So my dominator rankings, in order, are:
- Kevin Harvick
- Joey Logano
- Brad Keselowski
- Martin Truex Jr
- Chase Elliott
- Kyle Busch
- Denny Hamlin
This is as far as I’d take the dominator list. It’s possible another driver or two dominates, but they’d also end up as value plays thanks to a cheaper price in combination with place differential potential.
NASCAR at Richmond DraftKings DFS Value Picks
Cash Game Plays
Due to the nature of NASCAR DFS, cash game plays are also very strong GPP plays. This is extra true at Richmond, where attrition and variance is low. Here are two cash game plays to get you rolling.
Matt DiBenedetto ($7500) – DiBenedetto is a solid option in all formats this weekend. He starts 16th thanks to a poor showing at Darlington. However, his results in 2020 at Phoenix and New Hampshire are very solid. He was in the top 11 in average green flag speed in both races, while piloting his car to a 13th and sixth place finish.
At a track with low attrition, it’s much more likely DiBenedetto makes his way forward than has a problem and doesn’t provide you value. The biggest concern here is simply roster construction. He’s in that middling price range, and a stars and scrubs approach to cash games is also viable.
With Bubba Wallace priced at $7100 and starting 30th, it could draw a bit of ownership off of DiBenedetto, making him a solid overweight tournament play.
Chris Buescher ($5900) – DraftKings missed badly on Buescher’s price tag. While Richmond, Phoenix, and New Hampshire aren’t his best tracks, he did post three top-16 finishes last year in JTG Daugherty equipment. Now in Roush equipment, this lateral move at worst should leave him in position to match those results.
Any top-20 finish won’t hurt you, and there’s winning lineup potential here with anything better. He’s a solid cash game start, but his upside is pretty capped. I’d prefer to be underweight on Buescher in tournaments.
Other cash game options: Bubba Wallace, John Hunter Nemechek, Corey LaJoie
GPP Plays
Aric Almirola ($8500) – Almirola fits the bill of a driver that could dominate, but is also a value play. His price tag is quite affordable as the 12th highest priced driver. His results at the three relevant tracks in 2018 and 2020 speak for themselves. He has three top-five and six top-eight finishes in seven races at these tracks.
In 2020, Almirola had the fourth-best average running position at Phoenix and New Hampshire combined. He ranked eighth and sixth in average green flag speed at the two tracks.
I expect a few other drivers in his price range to be in play, so that could keep his ownership down. I like being overweight on Almirola. He rolls off 10th, but any top-six finish should put him in the winning lineup. Given his past results, my model gives that about a 30% shot of that happening.
Cole Custer ($7300) – Fair warning, this is a high-risk play, but one I’d recommend because I think Custer will be under-used. He’s right in the middle of the DiBenedetto, William Byron, Christopher Bell, and Bubba Wallace tier in price. DiBenedetto, Bell, and Wallace all should have decent ownership, leaving Custer at or below the 10% threshold.
However, Custer has been quite strong at Phoenix and New Hampshire this year. He has top-14 green flag speeds at both races. By keeping his nose clean, he turned those solid paces into finishes of ninth and eighth. A repeat of those two races will get him in the winning lineup.
I like at least 15% exposure to Custer. If you embrace risk, 20% is certainly on the table.
Ryan Preece ($6100) – With Buescher and Corey LaJoie priced cheaper and starting farther back, Preece may be overlooked for today’s race. However, Phoenix and New Hampshire have been two of his better races in 2020, with top eighteen finishes at both.
His average green flag speed at New Hampshire was 19th, so his finishing position was merit-based instead of luck. I love Preece as a pivot off Buescher and LaJoie.
Other GPP options: Clint Bowyer, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Newman
