NASCAR at Phoenix DraftKings Picks: DFS Strategy for Sunday’s Season Finale 500

Today’s race at Phoenix Raceway marks the end of a unique season for DFS players. With practice eliminated after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, DFS players had to adapt to a new reality with less on-track data. We get to put it all together one final time for a shot at the $50,000 first-place prize in the $200,000 Stock Car Season Finale tournament on DraftKings.

I’ll mostly rely on performance at Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond in 2020, with some additional data from these tracks in 2018 as well. That year marks the last time the series ran at short flat tracks under low downforce rules prior to this year.

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NASCAR at Phoenix DraftKings Dominator Picks

Chase Elliott ($10,600) — Today’s polesitter also has the most fast laps and led the most laps in the first race at Phoenix. He also won last weekend’s race at Martinsville after finishing fifth there earlier this year. In addition to those performances, Elliott has a fifth at Richmond and a ninth at New Hampshire this year. He put up two strong showings at Phoenix in 2018 as well.

Joey Logano ($10,000) — The race winner at the first Phoenix race has also finished no worse than fourth at any short flat track race this year. He should be in contention again today.

Brad Keselowski ($10,800) — If Logano or Elliott aren’t leading, it’s likely that Logano’s teammate Keselowski will be. He led the most laps at New Hampshire and Richmond and posted the second-most laps led behind Elliott at the first Phoenix race.

Other dominator options in order of preference: Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, then a big gap to Kyle Busch, Alex Bowman and Martin Truex Jr.

NASCAR at Phoenix DraftKings Value Picks

William Byron ($8,500) — Last week, I talked about how the short flat track was one of Byron’s best track types. Unfortunately, he wrecked at Martinville after a solid start to the day. That pushes him back to a 25th-place starting position for today’s race. He should be a top-15 driver, with top-10 upside. He has three finishes of 11th or better in five short flat track races this year. He has no finish worse than 12th at Phoenix under low downforce rules.

Ryan Newman ($6,500) — Flat tracks are Newman’s best track type, but by starting 19th, his usage should be limited relative to other drivers starting farther back in his price range, such as Michael McDowell, Ryan Preece, or Bubba Wallace. I wouldn’t use him in cash games, but in tournaments, he has enough upside combined with a low expected usage to be worth a play.

Ryan Preece ($5,800) — Preece is a chalk play, and I don’t mind using him in all formats. He has top-20 finishes at Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire, as well as one of the two Martinsville races.