NASCAR at Martinsville DraftKings Picks: DFS Strategy for Sunday’s Xfinity 500

Today’s 500-lap race at Martinsville is yet another in which DFS players need to be sure they nail the dominant drivers. Without dominators, you’ll have zero shot at a top lineup and barely any shot to even cash in tournaments.

That means a solid multi-entry strategy would be to mix and match drivers with dominator potential. In the first Martinsville race this year, there were two major dominators (Joey Logano and Martin Truex Jr.) as well as a minor dominator (Jimmie Johnson). All three ended up in the optimal lineup thanks to top-five finishes by Logano and Truex, and a 10th-place finish from Johnson after starting 21st. I believe we’ll see another two- or three-dominator race today.

Martinsville is a half-mile flat track that is unique to the Cup Series. That means a special skill set is required for these drivers, so we often see drivers consistently overperform or underperform their year-long average. I’ll rely heavily on track history, as well as flat track performance in 2020 to find value for today’s Xfinity 500.

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NASCAR at Martinsville DraftKings Dominator Picks

Brad Keselowski ($11,400) — Today’s polesitter has to be considered the top dominator thanks to a combination of track history, recent performance, starting position, and pit stall. Keselowski has one finish outside the top five at Martinsville in the last nine races. That includes two wins during that span and a third-place finish earlier this year.

Denny Hamlin ($10,200) — Hamlin is one of my favorite DFS plays with the pit stall concerns for Truex and the lack of other top options starting in the first three rows. He put up a stinker at the first Martinsville race and starts on the outside, which may also cause DFS players to shy away from him. I’ll gladly take a top Martinsville driver at an ownership discount if that is indeed what happens.

Hamlin has five wins at Martinsville and seven on the year. Don’t let one poor result influence you more than it should. Certainly throw it into Hamlin’s range of outcomes, but don’t let it define his projection. There’s much stronger evidence he’s a top driver on a top team at one of his best tracks.

Joey Logano ($9,900) — It gets harder to select a dominator after the trio of Keselowski, Hamlin, and Truex (more on him in a moment). For me, it’s between Logano, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, and Kyle Busch. I give the nod to Logano for a few reasons.

First, he’s the second-cheapest, so if we’re being price sensitive, he should be at the top of the list in terms of dominator potential relative to price (I grade Logano out higher than Busch in dominator potential).

Second, Logano has crushed the short flat tracks this year with no finish worse than fourth. That includes a win at Phoenix and a dominant performance at the first Martinsville race.

Other Dominators  — Truex is certainly a top dominator candidate, but I worry about his finish because of a middling pit stall selection. I don’t want to overreact to that, but it could put him in a bind at some point in the race. He also starts on the outside, so an early lead is unlikely. I still like plenty of Truex in multi-entry portfolios, but there’s some downside.

In terms of other dominator candidates, Blaney, Elliott, and Busch are the next three, followed by Kevin Harvick and Alex Bowman.

NASCAR at Texas DraftKings Value Picks

William Byron ($7,700) — One of Byron’s best track types throughout his career has been the short, flat track. He has multiple wins in both Trucks and Xfinity. His best Cup Series finish prior to his win at Daytona was a second place at Martinsville last year. A repeat performance will easily put him in the winning lineup, but all we really need from Byron is a top eight. He’s already done that twice in five races in his young career.

Matt DiBenedetto ($7,000) — First of all, I want to put this warning out there: I wouldn’t use Byron and DiBenedetto in the same lineup much, if at all. These are two contrarian drivers I like in tournaments but probably have some negative correlation. It’s unlikely two cheaper drivers starting 12th and 13th end up finishing toward the front and make the winning lineup.

That said, DiBenedetto is a fine play. He’s pulled off top-seven finishes in two of the four flat track races this year, including earlier this year at Martinsville.

Bubba Wallace ($7,200) — When we talk track history, Wallace is one of the premier examples of a driver who just gets it done at Martinsville. After a tough rookie year, his three Martinsville finishes since are 17th, 13th, and 11th. He won twice in the Truck Series and had top-five finishes in all four Martinsville races. He starts 32nd, so there’s massive place differential potential for him. He’s a great play in cash games and tournaments. Pair him with one of the drivers above for a mix of safety plus upside for a solid tournament lineup.

Chris Buescher ($6,700) — Buescher starts 28th, so like Wallace, place differential opportunity is huge for him. Buescher has finished between 11th and 13th in four of the seven Martinsville races he’s run after his departure from Front Row Motorsports. Along with Matt Kenseth, who just seems lost these days, Buescher and Wallace are your cash game options. However, don’t go too chalky at a track that still has a lot of variability. I like pairing Buscher or Wallace with either Byron or DiBenedetto.