NASCAR at Las Vegas DraftKings Picks: DFS Strategy for Sunday’s South Point 400

Las Vegas Motor Speedway (LVMS) is the site of today’s second-round playoff opener. Las Vegas is a 1.5-mile trioval with low tire wear. The durability of the tires was evident in the first race of the year, with Joey Logano staying out on tires that had 35 laps on them to steal a win after a restart with two laps remaining.

However, Goodyear is bringing a right side tire with more grip, which could increase wear. That said, this is still a track that won’t degrade tires as quickly as other 1.5-mile tracks like Atlanta or Homestead. As a result, we’ll be relying heavily on the six races at 1.5-mile tracks other than Atlanta or Homestead that were run earlier this year. In addition, 2019 data is valid thanks to a similar aerodynamic package to the 2020 package at these tracks.

Las Vegas is traditionally a difficult track to pass the leader, and with only 267 laps, expect a two dominator affair. Of course, nothing in NASCAR is 100% predictable. There is some chance this is a one or three dominator race, but two should be the expectation.

NASCAR at Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Dominator Picks

Kevin Harvick ($11,700) – Harvick has been the dominant driver in 2020, winning nine races to date. However, the low tire wear 1.5-mile tracks have been his bugaboo. His best finish in six races is fourth, which occurred at both Kentucky and Kansas. That said, both of those finishes were in the three most recent 1.5-mile races.

Additionally, Harvick led 92 laps in the first Las Vegas race to go along with 31 fastest laps. That puts him as the top dominator. In last year’s two Vegas races, he led 88 and 47 laps.

He also won at Atlanta, a higher tire wear 1.5-mile track. If the new right side tire falls off more, this could push things a bit more in Harvick’s favor.

By virtue of starting on the pole, as well as his track history, better recent form and new right side tire, Harvick should be favored to dominate.

Joey Logano ($10,300) – Logano rolls off fifth for today’s race and won the first race at LVMS earlier this year. In fact, Logano has dominated each of the last three Vegas races at some point, leading 86 and 105 laps in the two 2019 affairs.

Logano and teammate Ryan Blaney are the only two drivers to post top-10 average green flag speeds in all six low wear 1.5-mile races.

NASCAR at Las Vegas Second-Tier DFS Dominators

I wrote up two drivers as my favorite bets to win, yet both are less likely to dominate thanks to their starting position. Both Martin Truex Jr. ($10,600) and Ryan Blaney ($9100) start outside the top 10.

Truex rolls off 11th, but I expect him to be near the front at some point in the race. Truex has the second-best average green flag speed at the six representative races. He was top two in average speed at both Kansas and Kentucky and was running fifth at Texas when he got tagged from behind in a lap 219 melee. He’s finished in the top four in five of the last eight Vegas races.

Blaney starts 15th, so he’ll have to work his way through the field. Blaney has been the best driver at 1.5-mile tracks with lower wear this year, so expect him to come through the field. Even if he doesn’t dominate, his price tag is such that a finish near the front will get him in the winning lineup.

Contrarian dominators – I think both Aric Almirola ($8300) and Alex Bowman ($7300) are outside dominator candidates if you’re looking for a contrarian take.

Almirola actually has the greatest improvement among all drivers in green flag speed from the first three 1.5-mile low wear tracks to the second three. In fact, his average of 4.7 is third best among all drivers over the three most recent 1.5-mile races. He rolls off fourth, so he has early track position.

Bowman, on the other hand, is among the Hendrick contingent that has struggled with green flag speed lately. However, the new right side tire may provide more fall off, which could play into Bowman’s hands. Auto Club Speedway and Chicgaoland Speedway are the sites of his two career wins. Both of those tracks feature higher tire wear. The Las Vegas surface isn’t exactly young, and higher temperatures could make things a bit more slick.

Other drivers who can dominate – Other drivers who can dominate: Brad Keselwoski, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch

Dominator to fade – I’ve mentioned the Chevy and Hendrick struggles and their top driver is not immune. Chase Elliott’s performance at high-speed tracks in the second half of 2020 is poor for a driver priced like a dominator. In the five races at low wear tracks between 1.5 and 2 miles in length, he’s led exactly nine laps, including zero at 1.5-mile tracks.

NASCAR at Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Value Picks

Matt DiBenedetto ($7900) – DiBenedetto got knocked out of the playoffs thanks to a 19th place average finish in the first round. He also starts 19th for today’s race.

However, that means he should move forward. At the six 1.5-mile low tire wear races, he’s finished 17th or better in five of them. His only blemish is a DNF at Kansas.

In fact, he’s averaging a 10.8 finish in the other five races, including two top-three finishes. There’s plenty of upside here for a driver who may have his usage reduced thanks to some recency bias.

Cole Custer ($6600) – I’m struggling to find a better driver under $7000 than Custer when you consider starting position, salary and expected performance.

Custer is the second-most improved driver in the series at 1.5-mile tracks, behind only teammate Almirola. Yes, he won at Kentucky, but that was a bit of a fluke. Still, he had the 12th-best average green flag speed at that race. He also had the 14th-best average green flag speed at Kansas. At Texas, he was running 15th when a massive wreck started near the front of the field that he couldn’t avoid.

Tyler Reddick ($6900) starts eight spots further forward. Bubba Wallace ($6700) is much slower than Custer at 1.5-mile tracks, especially lately. Matt Kenseth ($6500) starts two spots closer to the front and has been slower. John Hunter Nemechek ($6400) starts three spots behind Custer and looks to be the only other driver competitively priced for his starting position and speed.

Chris Buescher ($6200) – However, if you do want to take a stab at another driver in the $6k range, Buescher is a high-risk, high-reward play. This is most certainly not a driver you want to use in cash games.

However, in tournaments I love using Buescher. He rolls off 16th, which will reduce his DFS usage across the industry. However, he’s been on fire at 1.5-mile, low wear tracks lately. A top 10 is not out of the question for Buescher. I’d roster him in at least 15% of my lineups a multi-entry portfolio.

NASCAR at Las Vegas DraftKings DFS Underweight Picks

I first want to note that both of these drivers are safe plays and are usable in a limited percentage of lineups in tournaments. They are also very much in play for cash games. However, both of them have limited upside relative to their prices and projected usage levels in tournaments.

Wililam Byron ($9400) – Byron starts 28th and is a chalk play. However, Hendrick’s and Chevy’s recent struggles leave quite a bit of downside for a driver who should be somewhat chalky.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($7900) – Stenhouse starts 33rd which makes him a safe play. He also finished third earlier this year at Las Vegas thanks to some late race strategy by staying out under caution. However, outside of that fluky result, his upside is capped. He was only 22nd in average green flag speed before a late race caution allowed him to stay out on old tires on a restart with two laps to go. In fact, there was only one green flag lap as another caution hit on the final lap.

In his past three 1.5-mile races, he’s had DNFs in two of them, and ran only 29th in average speed at Kentucky before finishing in that same position. He’ll need a finish in the top 20 just to come close to making value.