Racing on road courses often requires a different strategy than most oval races. At non-superspeedway ovals, we’re typically looking to roster two or three dominators.
However, road courses need a different strategy, thanks to the shorter distances run. Only 109 laps are scheduled, so rostering one or two dominators becomes the play. There can even be races where zero dominators are in the optimal lineup.
What that means is we should be focusing on a combination of place differential and finishing position. We certainly can’t ignore top drivers that start near the front, but they must finish within eyesight of the front runner even if they lead 40-plus laps.
With the threat of rain, even more unpredictability than normal is possible. It also increases the probability of a zero dominator lineup.
With all of that in mind, here are my top plays for Sunday’s Bank of America ROVAL 400 as well as a series of pivot drivers off of the chalk:
NASCAR at Charlotte DraftKings Cash Game Picks
Martin Truex Jr. ($10,300) — Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott make up the front row of the starting lineup and are in the conversation as potential dominators who can finish up front. However, Truex is also a race favorite despite rolling off seventh, which gives him a bit more place differential potential than Hamlin and Elliott.
Truex has four wins at road courses in 31 starts. That doesn’t include a near win at the inaugural ROVAL 400, where he was about to triumph until contact from Jimmie Johnson spun him out a few hundred feet from the finish line. With Elliott and Hamlin both likely to draw exposure as potential dominators and winners, and 2018 winner Ryan Blaney starting so far back, Truex won’t be quite as chalky as he could be.
Jimmie Johnson ($9,100) — As mentioned, Johnson was involved in that spectacular finish in the debut ROVAL race. He also had a ninth-place effort in the second race here. Following those two finishes, Johnson scored a perfect trifecta of Top-10 efforts with a fourth at the race on the Daytona road course, which includes part of the oval as well.
The biggest benefit of using Johnson here is the place-differential potential. He starts 30th, which gives him both massive safety and upside. That also means he’ll be a very chalky play, so if rain comes into play it’s certainly a plausible strategy to go underweight on Johnson in tournaments. However, he’s a must-start in cash-game formats.
Michael McDowell ($8,100) — McDowell is known for his road-course prowess, and by starting 31st, he’ll certainly draw plenty of exposure in DFS lineups. His average finish of 13.3 at the three road/oval races puts him in contention to be in the winning lineup. He’s a great cash-game option, but I like being underweight on him in tournaments for a few reasons.
First, McDowell is not in top-tier equipment. Front Row Motorsports fields solid cars, but they are nowhere near elite. Second, he’s mired in traffic, which could cause problems especially in a race that could feature rain. Exposure to McDowell is warranted, but I’d keep it in the 20-25% range in a multi-entry portfolio. That’s enough to have him in plenty of lineups, but should still come in significantly underweight to the field.
Christopher Bell ($7,500) — Bell finished in the top two in three of his four road course races in last year’s XFINITY Series. That easily places him as the top driver among this year’s Cup Series rookies on road courses. In addition, he gets to start way back in 35th, thanks to a Lap 1 crash at Talladega. DraftKings didn’t price Bell up high enough to consider going significantly underweight on him.
Instead, he’s a prime cash game option and a driver you should consider heavily for tournaments.
NASCAR at Charlotte DraftKings Tournament Picks
Kyle Busch ($9,500) — Not only do I like Busch as a value bet to win, but he’s also a solid tournament play if you want to pivot off of one or more of Truex, Hamlin and Elliott. Any driver with race-winning upside should be considered, but Busch also comes at a discount and has more place differential potential than all priced above him except Blaney.
Busch is almost surely in a must-win situation, so the upside on strategy and rain-induced chaos is there.
Clint Bowyer ($8,800) — Like Busch, Bowyer is another win-or-go-home driver. Fortunately for him, the road courses are his comfort zone. He has 12 Top-5 finishes in 31 career road course races.
At the ROVAL specifically, Bowyer has finished third and fourth his two starts. He also finished sixth at the Daytona road course earlier this year after running in the top five most of the race.
A Top-6 finish at $8,800 will most likely put him in the winning lineup.
Tyler Reddick ($7,400) — Reddick has only made one career Cup Series road course start, so analyzing him means we need to look at his XFINITY results. He showed significant improvement from 2018 to 2019, moving from two DNFs and no finishes better than ninth, to four top-fives four races.
He finished fifth, fourth, third and second in those 2019 road course races, always coming in ahead of rookie rivals Cole Custer and John Hunter Nemechek. He’s the pivot play off of fellow rookie Christopher Bell, as well as Custer and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. who also start deep in the field.
Chris Buescher ($6.900) — Buescher has been solid at road course races during his time at JTG Daugherty and Roush Fenway Racing. He’s had Top 20 finishes in nine total starts with these two teams, including a fifth earlier this year at Daytona. Starting in 21st position is a little further forward than we’d like for a cash-game play, but that does make him a nice pivot play in tournaments off of the likes of Bell and Custer.
NASCAR at Charlotte DraftKings Tournament Fades
Austin Dillon ($7,200) — The magical playoff run of Dillon is about to come to an end. He’s 21 points behind the cut line, which means he almost surely has to win to advance. Unfortunately, Dillon has never scored a Top-15 finish in 15 road course starts. He starts sixth, meaning a large negative place differential score is almost guaranteed. He’s a full fade for me.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($7,800) — Stenhouse starts dead last and is certainly usable in cash game formats. He isn’t a full fade in tournaments, but you should look to be significantly underweight on him if you play multiple lineups. Stenhouse has a best finish of only 15th in 17 road-course events in his Cup Series career.
That means he’s put up a ton of stinkers. Certainly a Top-20 finish would put him in the conversation of the winning lineup. However, we’re talking about a driver not even in the Top 20, racing on arguably his worst discipline.
