NFL Week 4 wraps up with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. The action gets underway with the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the New England Patriots at 7:05 p.m. ET and wraps up with the Green Bay Packers vs. the Atlanta Falcons at 8:50 p.m. ET.
Let’s look at some of the top DFS options available at each position on tonight’s slate.
Quarterback
Stud
Patrick Mahomes is playing arguably the best football of his career at the moment. He has posted an adjusted yards per attempt (AYA) of 8.9 through his first three games while tallying nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. He faced a tough test last week vs. the Ravens but torched them to the tune of 43.0 DraftKings points.
His matchup this week vs. the Patriots is an interesting one. They were easily the best pass defense in the league last season, but they’ve fallen all the way to 27th in Football Outsiders‘ pass defense DVOA in 2020.
A lot of that stems from their disastrous performance vs. Russell Wilson in Week 2 – he racked up 288 yards and five touchdowns – but Mahomes is probably Wilson’s closest comp at this point. If Wilson can find that much success vs. the Pats, there’s no reason to believe Mahomes can’t do the same.
Value
Matt Ryan stands out as the best pure value of the group, particularly on DraftKings. He leads the position with a projected Plus/Minus of +3.88 in our NFL Models, and he should benefit from the return of Julio Jones in this contest. Julio and Calvin Ridley are both expected to play after initially being listed as questionable, so the Falcons are essentially at full strength on the offensive side of the ball.
Ryan does own one of the toughest matchup among the QBs on today’s slate – he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.3 – but he’s capable of putting up stats against anyone.
Quick Hits
Aaron Rodgers is home favorite vs. the Falcons, which is a situation where he’s historically dominated. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.14 when favored at Lambeau Field (per the Trends tool), and he owns a ridiculous Opponent Plus/Minus of +11.2 on DraftKings. That said, he will be without his two top WRs in Davante Adams and Allen Lazard, which is obviously a bit concerning.
Brian Hoyer is easily the cheapest option at QB on this slate, but he’s tough to make a case for. The Patriots don’t have a particularly appealing group of weapons and is a massive underdog vs. a Chiefs defense that is very good vs. the pass.
Running Back
Studs
Paying up at RB tonight comes down to a decision between Aaron Jones and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and both players have their merits.
Let’s start with Jones. He figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the injury to Adams. He didn’t exactly thrive in that situation last week, logging just 16 carries and four targets, but he averaged 6.75 targets per game in four contests without Adams in 2019. That additional upside as a receiver made him a fantasy monster, resulting in an average of 31.03 DraftKings points per game.
He also takes the field tonight as a seven-point favorite, and Jones has absolutely crushed as a favorite in the past. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.98 over 20 contests when favored by at least four points. That combination of increased receiving upside and potential game script makes him a very tough fade in a juicy matchup vs. the Falcons.
Still, CEH might be the better pure value. The Chiefs are even larger favorites vs. the Patriots – they’re currently favored by 10.5 points – and bell-cow RBs tend to thrive in those situations. Running backs who are projected for at least 10 fantasy points have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +2.38 when favored by double-digits.
And make no mistake about it, CEH is definitely a bell-cow back. He’s been on the field for just 66.1% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps this season but has garnered 76.4% of the rushing attempts among their running backs. He’s also seen 14 red zone opportunities this season, while the rest of the Chiefs’ RBs have combined for one.
Pairing Jones and CEH means you’ll have to sacrifice a bit elsewhere, but it’s definitely a viable strategy.
Value
Todd Gurley’s days as a stud RB may be over, but he showed some signs of life last week. He finished with 80 rushing yards on just 14 carries, and he also added a touchdown.
He has one of the best possible matchups at the position vs. the Packers, who have been dreadful vs. RBs this season. They rank merely 27th in rush defense DVOA, and Gurley owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.00 on DraftKings.
The one big concern with Gurley is his lack of involvement in the passing game this season. That was one of his strengths during his time with the Rams, but he’s managed just three catches for three yards through his first three games. If this game gets out of hand early, Gurley could find himself on the sidelines and watching guys like Brian Hill and Ito Smith instead.
Quick Hits
Sony Michel will not suit up tonight for the Patriots, which leaves them with a trio of options at the position. James White will likely handle most of the receiving work, but Damian Harris could be the more interesting option. He had the inside track for the starting job before getting hurt, so it’s possible he steps into that role tonight. The Patriots’ offensive line ranks fifth in adjusted line yards this season, so there is some potential value in this backfield.
The Packers are so thin at receiver at the moment that they might need to get a bit creative. That could mean more snaps for Tyler Ervin, who was already on the field for 37% of their offensive snaps last week. Any RB with the potential to get involved in the passing game has some appeal on DraftKings, particularly at just $4,000.
Wide Receiver
Studs
The WR pricing on this slate is kind of interesting. Jones, Ridley, and Tyreek Hill are among the best fantasy WRs in football, so why are they all priced below $7,000 on DraftKings?
Jones in particular stands out at just $6,000. That is a ridiculously low price tag for him, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. His previous low in our Trends database was $6,800, and Jones has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.01 when priced at $7,500 on lower. The Packers have not been particularly impressive vs. No. 1 WRs this season, ranking just 22nd in DVOA, so this price tag seems too good to pass up.
Ridley and Hill have their merits as well. Ridley’s matchup vs. the Packers might be even better than Jones’, with Green Bay currently ranking dead last in DVOA vs. No. 2 WRs. Meanwhile, Hill has the biggest edge among tonight’s WRs according to Pro Football Focus.
Overall, all three players look like excellent investments.
Value
The Patriots WRs dominate this category in our NFL Models. Julian Edelman, N’Keal Harry, and Damiere Byrd occupy the top three slots in terms of projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
It remains to be seen just how big the downgrade will be from Newton to Hoyer, but the game script should benefit all three players. Wide receiver is the one position where being an underdog might actually be advantageous than being a favorite. Playing from behind typically results in more passing, and more passing ultimately leads to more catches.
Edelman is the clear top option of the trio in terms of targets, but Byrd and Harry have played more snaps to start the season.
Quick Hits
Marques Valdez-Scantling played on 92% of the Packers offensive snaps last week, and that number could be even higher now that Lazard is out of the lineup. The Packers’ WRs lead the slate with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.1 on DraftKings, and MVS looks like their clear top WR.
If you want to go even cheaper with the Packers, Darrius Shephard could see a bunch of playing time at the absolute minimum. He is literally the only other healthy WR on the Packers’ depth chart, so he almost has to be on the field by default.
The Chiefs have a bunch cheap WRs who are capable of making big plays. Sammy Watkins has been their clear No. 2 WR this season, and he’s logged at least eight targets in two of his first three games. Mecole Hardman doesn’t play nearly as many snaps, but he has the speed of a track star and can take any touch to the house.
Tight End
Stud
Travis Kelce is the clear top choice at the TE position tonight. He leads the position in virtually every category in our NFL Models, and his ceiling projection in particular is approximately 10 points higher than every other option. If he goes off, there is simply no one at the position who is capable of matching his production.
Of course, that production does come with a price. He’s going to run you significantly more salary than the rest of available TEs, and you can’t pay up at every position. His matchup vs. the Patriots is also not ideal, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.3 on DraftKings.
I would personally still try to fit Kelce in as much as possible, but there are some decent value options if you can’t.
Value
Robert Tonyan in particular looks like a solid consolation prize. He saw five targets last week for the Packers and converted those into five catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. He could realistically operate as one of Rodgers’ preferred targets given their current injury situation, and his matchup vs. the Falcons results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.3.
He’s a bit pricy at $5,300 on FanDuel, but he’s a steal at just $3,800 on DraftKings.
Quick Hits
Hayden Hurst has been unable to fill the fantasy shoes of Austin Hooper so far this season, but he has scored a touchdown in each of his past two games. Most people will likely either pay up for Kelce or go all the way down to Tonyan, so he should garner minimal ownership as well.
If you want to play TE roulette this week, the Packers have some additional options to consider. Not only are they depleted at WR, they’re also expected to be without Marcedes Lewis. The Packers utilized two TEs on a majority of their snaps last week, so guys like Jace Sternberger or Josiah Deguara (if active) could have some appeal as pure punt plays.
Pictured above: Aaron Jones #33 of the Green Bay Packers
Photo credit: Dylan Buell/Getty Images
