Monday’s NBA DFS landscape features a 10-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Stud
The price tag on LaMelo Ball is now over $10,000 on DraftKings for the fifth straight slate. However, the most appealing spot for Ball tonight is on FanDuel where he is only $9,000 and has a 96% Bargain Rating. Ball has had a positive Plus/Minus in 11 of his last 12 games on FanDuel. He is also coming off of his second triple-double of the season.
Ball is playing heavy minutes recently, which has really benefited his production. Let’s take the last seven games as an example. During that time Ball has averaged 36.9 minutes per game and 52.7 DraftKings points per game. He has games over that time with 17 rebounds, another game with 14 assists, and he even dropped a season-high 32 points in a different game. Ball is a stat-sheet stuffer and should have no troubles filling up his scorecard against the Washington Wizards.
Value
Jalen Suggs saw a price increase of $1,200 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. However, I still think he provides value tonight. The upside of Suggs has been on display recently as he has averaged 31.8 DraftKings points per game in his last three games. During that time he has averaged 15 field goal attempts per game, while averaging three 3-pointers per game.
This spot for Suggs gets exponentially better if his backcourt teammate Cole Anthony is out again. Make sure to monitor his status before the game with our news dashboard. With Anthony out last game, Suggs was able to pass him in usage rate as he now leads the Magic at 26.2%. There certainly is blowout risk in this game as they once again face the Milwaukee Bucks as a double-digit underdog. Suggs should see minutes regardless as a rookie and I like his potential tonight.
Fast Break
James Harden is the obvious point guard who needs to be discussed. His salary on DraftKings has ballooned to $11,600, while his FanDuel price is still very reasonable at $10,100. Harden wound back the clock last game when Kevin Durant wasn’t able to play. He scored 36 points while shooting 19 of 20 from the charity stripe. He has shot double-digit free throw attempts in his last three games. Tonight will be different with Durant, who leads the Nets in usage rate, points, and rebounds back on the floor. His price on DraftKings makes him tough to get too, but on FanDuel he is still a very strong play.
Malcolm Brogdon has seen a crazy price decrease on DraftKings, down to $7,300. If you just look at his game logs, you would think the price makes sense due to his lack of minutes the last two games. If you dive a little deeper you would understand the Pacers were up by 32 points after the third quarter against the Pelicans and Brogdon didn’t touch the floor after he came out midway through the third quarter. The game before that, the Pacers were getting blown out and head coach Rick Carlisle rolled with the bench as they fought back. Brogdon has the upside to have a big game even against a very difficult Chicago Bulls defense. I prefer him in tournaments on DraftKings where he has an 83% Bargain Rating.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Donovan Mitchell has the highest ceiling in our Tournament Model tonight at the shooting guard position, despite being only the sixth highest priced player on DraftKings. Mitchell and the Jazz are 10-point favorites tonight with this matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies being the highest over/under on the slate at 222 points. The Jazz are implied for 116 points.
Mitchell has been a victim of blowouts recently, and this game suggests that the Jazz could be going down that path again tonight. The Jazz have won their last three games by an average of 23 points as Mitchell has averaged only 27.7 minutes per game. He has been very productive during that time, it just hasn’t been enough to pay off his salary. Mitchell still has the fourth highest usage rate in the league this season, so if the Grizzlies can keep this game close, Mitchell can shine tonight.
Value
Lu Dort pops as one of the best value plays at shooting guard, especially on DraftKings where he has a 96% Bargain Rating. I would much rather have his teammate Josh Giddey on FanDuel for a cheaper price tag. Dort has a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his last nine games. Despite losing four of their last five games, he is still playing heavy minutes.
The big news for the Thunder tonight is the status of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is questionable due to an injury. He has been struggling lately as he has had a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his last eight games. If Gilgeous-Alexander sits tonight that will open up a lot of usage to go around. He has the highest usage on the team by far with 27.3%. Dort isn’t far behind with 21.6%. Dort is second on the team in points with 16.6 per game. He erupted for 34 points just three games ago.
Fast Break
Bradley Beal’s price continues to dip, but quite frankly it hasn’t dipped enough. He has two games all season over 50 DraftKings points and those came very early in the year. He has dealt with an injury and poor performance lately. However, we know the upside is still sky high and tonight he has a chance to bounce back with a ceiling game against the Charlotte Hornets. They rank third in Pace this season while giving up the second most points at 113.7 per game.
Desmond Bane is another source of value that we can look to tonight, in the same price range as Lu Dort. Bane exploded for 21 points in their last game while only playing 25 minutes due to blowout. He is shining in his second year in the league. He benefits greatly without De’Anthony Melton and Dillon Brooks. Melton is out for tonight, and Brooks is doubtful. The minutes and production will be there, the only concerns are a potential blowout, and the Utah Jazz are great defensively.
Small Forward
Stud
Kevin Durant is playing tonight after missing last game with a shoulder injury. It felt more like a rest day with the Orlando Magic coming to town. Durant has been incredibly efficient this season while still shooting at a high volume. He is shooting a career-high 56.7% from the field, while making a career-high 10.6 field goals per game. Not bad for the 14-year veteran.
Durant leads the Nets in points with 28.6 per game, rebounds with 7.9 per game, and usage rate at 31.2%. He also leads the entire league in points per game. James Harden brings the ball up the floor, but Kevin Durant is the first option in this Nets offense that ranks 14th in Offensive Rating. The Nets are 8-point favorites tonight playing the up and coming Cleveland Cavaliers, who are dealing with a ton of injuries right now. The price is high for Durant, but definitely worth it.
Value
Kevin Huerter continues to be underpriced across the industry. He is starting and playing at least 30 minutes in tightly contested games. De’Andre Hunter will be sidelined for multiple weeks, which will keep Huerter in the starting lineup. Bogdan Bogdanovic is listed as questionable to play tonight, which would open up even more usage for Huerter.
In the one game that Bogdanovic missed this season, Huerter erupted for 28 points while shooting 11 of 18 from the field and adding in six 3-pointers for 42.25 DraftKings points. The Atlanta Hawks are 11-point favorites tonight at home against the OKC Thunder. I still think there is plenty of value in this Huerter price and he’s a very safe play for cash games tonight.
Fast Break
Anthony Edwards is the highest-rated small forward in our Tournament Model. He has seen his price dip down below $8,000 on both sites tonight. The price decrease is warranted though as Edwards has had a negative Plus/Minus in each of his last six games. The potential is there in this matchup against the Pelicans for a big game. He had a career-high 48 points not too long ago. The Pelicans rank 29th in Defensive Rating this season as they have given up 109.7 points per game.
Josh Giddey is another Thunder player that I want to get to tonight if Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out due to his injury. The Thunder rank just 29th this season in Offensive Rating and they have scored the least amount of points this season with 98.6 per game. Giddey has provided a spark lately as he is averaging 14.3 points per game and 10.3 rebounds per game. He is coming off of a season-high four made 3-pointers in his last game. Giddey provides upside.
Power Forward
Stud
The best pay-up option on the slate tonight is clearly Giannis Antetokounmpo. He is the highest-priced player on both sites by a wide margin, but for good reason. It does not matter if Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton are playing or not, Giannis is going to do whatever he can to lead the Bucks back from their slow start. They have now won five of their last six games.
In his last three games, Giannis is averaging a ridiculous 68.8 DraftKings points per game. In five of his last seven games he has had 15 or more rebounds in each game. He ranks third in the league in points with 27.8 per game and fourth in rebounds with 12.2 per game. His last game against this same Orlando Magic team, Giannis had 32 points, 20 rebounds, five assists, two steals, three blocks, and a season-high 23 free throw attempts. His ceiling is so high.
Value
Franz Wagner really struggled against the Milwaukee Bucks in their last game, but I think that is an outlier. He only attempted four shots which is by far his lowest total of the season. He has had double-digit field goal attempts in every game except for two this season. His $4,100 salary on DraftKings is the lowest all season and he has a 93% Bargain Rating.
His last game was incredibly shocking seeing how well he was playing before that dud. In his previous three games he had an average of a +9.36 Plus/Minus. In two of those three games, he had a usage rate above 22% as he averaged 17.3 points per game over that stretch. When playing well he will see mid 30’s in minutes with the upside for more. Don’t let one game steer you away from Wagner tonight, especially if Cole Anthony is out again due to injury.
Fast Break
Domantas Sabonis is our highest rated power forward tonight by far in our Tournament Model. He feels like a much better play on FanDuel where he has an 85% Bargain Rating. Sabonis has only cracked 50 DraftKings points once all season and that was in early November. He has been very inconsistent. He will pop for 45 DraftKings points and a dominating double-double in one game and follow that up with 18 DraftKings points without even reaching double digit points. The Bulls have been awesome defensively, but Sabonis should be able to do some damage against this Nikola Vucevic-less front court.
Kyle Anderson was disappointing last game, but still provides a lot of value tonight with De’Anthony Melton out and Dillon Brooks doubtful. Anderson started last game, but was extremely underwhelming as he only scored 9.5 DraftKings points which was his second lowest output of the year. The Memphis Grizzlies lost by 43 points on the road as Anderson only played 20 minutes. His price tag came down on both sites due to his poor play, but I like going back to him tonight.
Center
Stud
Jonas Valanciunas is the stud center that I want to get to tonight. Valanciunas has had a double-double in 14 of his 18 games this season, which is why I prefer him to any other center. The double-double bonus on DraftKings is awesome, and the price discount of $8,000 on FanDuel is fantastic. Valanciunas has a 95% Bargain Rating on FanDuel tonight.
Valanciunas continues to average a career-high in minutes with 33.3 per game and rebounds with 12.9 per game. He ranks third in the league in rebounds per game this season. This matchup against the Timberwolves provides a high ceiling for rebounds. The Timberwolves rank 28th in Rebounding Percentage this season. Another added benefit is Valanciunas has made at least one 3-pointer in 11 of his last 13 games. He is shooting a blistering 56.4% from downtown this season.
Value
There isn’t a lot of center value on tonight’s slate as of right now, but one player that does stand out is Mason Plumlee. With PJ Washington doubtful to play, Plumlee should see high 20’s in minutes once again. In 11 games without Washington this season, Plumlee has averaged 7.8 points per game while shooting 66.7% from the field, and 7.4 rebounds per game.
The Washington Wizards have allowed the fifth most points in the paint in their last three games. Plumlee is second on the Hornets in points scored in the paint this season, behind only Miles Bridges, who dunks the ball every chance that he can get. More value could open up throughout the day, but if it doesn’t Plumlee is your best bet for value at center tonight.
Fast Break
Karl-Anthony Towns draws a matchup against the Pelicans tonight. Towns has similar if not more upside than Valanciunas, but comes with more inconsistency. He is shooting a career-high 46.1% from 3-point range, but is also averaging a career-low 9.3 rebounds per game. He is the cheapest he has been all season on DraftKings, but he has had a positive Plus/Minus in only three of his 15 games all season. Towns is very boom or bust, but the Pelicans rank 29th in Defensive Rating which lends itself to a potential boom game. He certainly is risky, but he makes for a very good tournament play tonight.
Jarrett Allen is finally expected back tonight after missing the Cavaliers last three games (all three losses). He will be playing his first game all season without Evan Mobley who remains out due to injury. Usually in DFS you may forget about a player if he has been out, but please don’t do that with Allen. He is averaging a career-high in points, rebounds, and field goal percentage this season. He will also face his old team the Brooklyn Nets tonight if you are into that revenge narrative.
Pictured: Jalen Suggs
Photo credit: Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images
