An integral part of daily fantasy research is looking at Vegas data, which we display each slate in our Vegas Dashboard. Identifying favorites and underdogs is useful, but examining line movement and other Vegas trends has the potential to reveal even more actionable information. In this first piece of our MLB Vegas Data series, we’ll look at some historical data surrounding favorites, underdogs, and moneylines.
Favorites and Dogs
Using our Trends tool, we can determine how pitchers and hitters have performed as underdogs and favorites over the past three seasons on both DraftKings and FanDuel:
Unsurprisingly, favored pitchers and hitters have provided more value, scoring more points per game and more consistently hitting their salary-based expectations. Of course, the public has been all too aware of the value that favorites offer, as their ownership has been far greater than that of underdogs, especially for pitchers.
Pitchers have posted a +10.6 and +6.7 percentage point ownership differential as favorites on DraftKings and FanDuel. Hitters have posted a +2.8 and +3.3 percentage point ownership differential as favorites. For favored pitchers, the ownership premium is severe.
Moneyline
Not all favorites and underdogs are created equal. Let’s take a look at how hitters and pitchers have performed depending on their closing moneylines.
Hitters
As you see, the DFS value batters provide correlates with their closing moneylines: 94.4 percent of hitters have had a closing moneyline between -200 and +200 over the past three seasons. Slight favorites have still produced positive value, but hitters with moneylines between -200 and -300 have been much more desirable. They have an ownership premium, but their average +0.6 Plus/Minus and 42.7 percent Consistency Rating makes them attractive, especially in cash games, where ownership is less relevant.
There also could be some value in targeting small underdogs with moneylines between +100 and +200. They haven’t produced as well as favorites, but they’ve also had pedestrian ownership levels. Slight underdogs could make for potential contrarian plays in guaranteed prize pools. Pro subscribers can review ownership trends across GPPs of all stakes in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Pitchers
Once again we see a strong positive correlation between pitcher production and moneyline:
There has historically been considerable value in even moderately favored pitchers, and those who are favored in the -200 to -300 moneyline range have been especially enticing with Consistency Ratings around 65 percent. This production has come with an ownership premium, but it’s hard to say that these pitchers haven’t earned their popularity.
It’s hard to roster underdog pitchers, but the steep ownership discount they offer is intriguing for GPPs. The difference in Consistency Ratings between slight favorites and slight underdogs is far less than the difference in their ownership percentages. Additionally, +200 to +300 underdogs have far less ownership than +100 to +200 underdogs, but their Consistency Ratings are still fairly comparable. Such pitchers are clearly risky, but as arbitrage plays in GPP they have potential value.
Takeaways
Favored hitters and pitchers offer value on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Here are some specifics:
- Both pitchers and hitters have had steep ownership premiums as favorites, although the ownership differential has been much greater for pitchers.
- Hitters with moneylines greater than -200 have historically offered the most value. Hitters with moneylines between +100 and +200 haven’t been great, but their reduced ownership makes them potential contrarian targets in GPPs.
- Pitchers with moneylines greater than -200 have been the most valuable. Though terrifying, underdog pitchers have such low ownership percentages that they could be useful in GPPs.
Within our Player Models we have a Vegas section with up-to-the-minute data. When you’re constructing rosters with our Lineup Builder, remember to take into account moneylines and the production and ownership associated with various moneyline ranges.
And, of course, be sure to do your own Vegas research with the FantasyLabs Tools.
