Throughout the season, I am using our FREE Trends tool to create a custom trend, and then I am tracking the results of my matches for the week in this article. The goal is to create trends with high Plus/Minus values and share them with our readers every Friday.
Now that the MLB All-Star Break has come and gone, I really like the idea of focusing a bit more on some of the trend filters listed under the ‘Fantasy Year’ heading within our Trends tool. At FantasyLabs, the ‘fantasy year’ is based on a rolling 365-day block of time. For example, the fantasy year leading up to 7/22/16 would consists of games played from 7/22/15 to 7/22/16. What this means is that a fantasy year from May to May will consist mostly of the prior season’s data, a fantasy year from September to September will consist mostly of the current season’s data, and a fantasy year from mid-July to mid-July will give you a nice mix of both.
Description
Of course, that crash course on the concept of ‘fantasy year’ was necessary only because I borrow heavily from that category in this week’s trend.
The filters I used to create this trend were as follows:
• Dud Percentage over the past fantasy year is no higher than 10 percent.
• The pitcher’s team is the favorite to win.
• Season salary change is between -$2,000 and +$2,000
So what is going on here exactly?
4 Non Blondes: Such an Underrated Band
Firstly, we are looking for pitchers who have posted a “dud” in no more than 10 percent of their starts over the season. At FantasyLabs, our definition of a “dud” is as follows:
“The percentage of games in which a player has scored fewer than half his salary-based expectation.”
Next, we are looking for pitchers who stand to benefit from FanDuel’s 12-point win bonus. While a pitcher may be fairly dud-proof in general, this filter will help offset the chance that a dud occurs during one of our matched games.
Finally, I specified that a pitcher must be within $2,000 in either direction of his salary at the start of the season. Why? Since duds are calculated based on salary expectations, a player whose price has fluctuated too much over the season may have a skewed dud rate based on current salary or a previous salary that is no longer applicable.
Results
The following screenshots are pulled from entries into FanDuel’s guaranteed prize pools throughout the week.
7/18
Tropeano’s salary came dangerously close to disqualifying him from matching this trend. His $7,000 price tag represented a $1,600 increase over his salary on Opening Day. In fact, Tropeano was within shouting distance of his all-time-high price point of $7,200 leading up to his Monday start against the Rangers.
A $7,000 salary comes with an implied point total of 26.67 points on FanDuel, a score Nick had exceeded in only six of 12 starts coming into the game. This probably suggests that the Season Salary Change filter this trend uses should be a bit stricter, as Tropeano’s dud rate is likely to have exceeded 10 percent had he been priced at $7,000 during every 2016 start.
Anyway, Tropeano’s start was cut short as he left the game after two innings, complaining of elbow pain. I thought Tropeano’s 10 percent ownership was pretty surprising, since he was priced up and did not have a great matchup. I’m guessing that many DFS players viewed him as the easiest path to a Coors stack and were willing to assume some level of risk in rostering him.
On the other hand, Jose Fernandez seemed like the slate’s unquestioned top dog. He had been on a tear over the first half of the season and was gifted a matchup against the Phillies. He did not disappoint, with 14 strikeouts over six-and-a-third innings, but was denied a win by Aaron Nola on the other side. Fernandez still comfortably paid off his $12,000 salary thanks to an otherwise impressive performance.
7/19
Ownership was fairly flat on Tuesday, with several decent options available to choose from. Each of the three matches here easily exceeded value, and they all also came with reasonable ownership rates.
There was some reason for skepticism with both Salazar and Arrieta coming into the slate. Salazar had declined to participate in the All-Star game due to what was deemed ‘mild elbow discomfort’ and this was his first start post-ASB. If DFS players were a little spooked, I think that’s understandable. On the other hand, Salazar has maintained a low dud rate in 2016 despite a price tag that has been steadily increasing throughout the season, which is no easy accomplishment.
Arrieta had been reeling before the All-Star Break, posting subpar results in three consecutive starts. In fact, Arrieta lasted only 5.1 innings against the same Mets team on 7/2. The time off seemed to do wonders for Arrieta, who managed to turn things around in the rematch.
There were no such concerns with Quintana. Although he hadn’t been fantastic before the All-Star Break, there were no obvious red flags. Quintana’s dud rate sits at six percent, making him a sometimes-overlooked cash-game option. He is rarely priced at the top tier and also rarely gets blown up. To that point, he has failed to reach six innings only twice since 5/1.
7/20
We continue humming right along on Wednesday with three more pitchers who exceeded expectations. Although Wednesday was a split-slate day, all matches appeared on the seven-game early slate, which is why ownership numbers appear a bit inflated. The three pitchers let up a combined one earned run in 21.1 innings — pretty good.
Verlander and Hendricks were rather obvious plays, but I was pretty shocked to see Doug Fister here. Remember, this trend is based on seasonal dud rate. While we have all been ignoring Doug Fister in DFS because of his perceived lack of upside, he’s been returning value at an impressive rate.
7/22
Strasburg’s performance last night was the worst of the week, but it still wasn’t a complete disaster thanks to 10 strikeouts. On a slate in which he stood head and shoulders above the other pitching options, Strasburg was an obvious and popular choice, as exactly one third of the field rostered him in this tournament. Even though things were far from ideal, Strasburg avoided a “dud” here.
Review
Excluding the Nick Tropeano injury game, the trend performed admirably this week. While I had originally suspected that this trend would lead to chalky results, I was able to roster a couple of pitchers at sub-five percent ownership. Pitchers like Arrieta and Strasburg who have been great the entire season — excluding a couple of hiccups — are going to be on people’s radar no matter what.
But this trend has another subset of matches that includes players who seem to have found their salary ‘sweet spot.’ While pitchers like Doug Fister and Jose Quintana rarely have games in which they CRUSH their implied point expectations, they are frequently able to exceed expectations. This leaves them in play as A) contrarian cash-game options (which I think is a thing in MLB) and also B) foundation blocks to pair with high-variance stacks in guaranteed prize pools.
