Throughout the season, I am using our Trends tool to create a custom trend, and then I am tracking the results of my matches for the week in this article. The goal is to create trends with high Plus/Minus values and share them with our readers every Friday.
Description
This week, I am doubling up on batter splits. I’m going to be looking for players who A) have a high Isolated Power (ISO) split and B) are playing in a ballpark that gives a boost to batters of their handedness. In other words, we’re fishing for homeruns.
Now, the obvious missing piece of the puzzle here is the opposing pitcher. You can feel free to tweak the trend to include things like the opposing pitcher’s fly-ball percentage or exit velocity. But in the interest of maintaining a fairly large sample size here, I’m going to keep the trend relatively simple, using only the two aforementioned criteria.
The filters I used to create this trend were as follows:
• ISO Split (against pitchers of this handedness) > Higher than 0.250
• Park Factor > 60-100
Results
The following screenshots are pulled from entries into FanDuel’s $5 guaranteed prize pools throughout the week.
5/16
The Rays poured a big bucket of cold water on J.A. Happ’s previously impressive year-to-date stats, combining for four homers and 13 runs. Several Rays players fell just shy of the power requirements in this trend but still had big games, specifically Steve Pearce and Steven Souza, Jr. Most Rays were available at very reasonable ownership levels due to their perceived blandness and perhaps some recency bias on the part of DFS players, who focused too much on Happ’s recent stats and ignored his historical mediocrity.
The Blue Jays righties, of course, received the same Park Factor, so they had a few qualifiers as well. Unfortunately for those of us who continue to stack Blue Jays every night, ignoring that they have barely been a top-20 offense this year, Drew Smyly and the Rays’ bullpen were able to limit damage and cruise to an easy victory.
5/17
The Rays’ offensive onslaught continued on Tuesday as they hung 12 more runs on the Blue Jays, this time with Marcus Stroman on the mound. If you needed proof that players chase the big game in MLB less than in other DFS sports, consider this: Just one day after scoring 35 points at a position that is always difficult to fill, Curt Casali saw his ownership decrease despite the fact that he was $100 cheaper. Of course, DFS players’ respect for Stroman played a role, but in the other DFS sports you simply do not see a punt play explode one night and then ignored the next game.
The Jays scored only two runs, but one of them was a homer from Jose Bautista, so at least there’s that. Also, the Jays were available at a low ownership, in part because they were facing a tough pitcher in Chris Archer.
Proving that anything is possible in baseball, Chase Anderson limited the Cubs to just three hits in a matchup that looked very dismal. That was disastrous for those of us who received zero points from Anthony Rizzo at the crucial 1B spot.
5/18
The trend might as well be called “The Blue Jays and a couple other guys,” but as long as they are playing at Rogers Centre, their power righties are going to match the parameters. Ownership levels remained low despite facing a good, not great, pitcher in Jake Odorizzi. Wednesday was the day that I was personally the highest on the Blue Jays, as I thought that Odorizzi’s fly-ball outs might not translate well in the move from Tropicana Field to Rogers Centre. It didn’t really work out that way, as Toronto’s offensive funk prevailed.
Jay Bruce was a tournament staple on the 18th, as he and his fellow Reds gave rookie Mike Clevinger a rude welcome to the MLB. The person who won this GPP actually stacked Reds and Indians bats together. That’s a strategy I like in games in which neither team’s pitcher is anything special, because both teams benefit from the same Park Factor and Weather Rating and there is built-in Upside if the game goes into extra innings. That’s exactly what happened here, as both teams were able to rack up a few bonus points in this 12-inning affair.
5/19
Yesterday, the primary matches were on the early slate, which I did not play. That’s probably a good thing, because three-of-four matches scored zero points. Chris Davis laid a rare egg in a home matchup against a righty, but Nathan Karns is an improving pitcher and was on his game. Meanwhile, Rizzo continued to disappoint in another seemingly good matchup against Junior Guerra and the Brewers.
Remember, when someone like Bruce posts a +36 Plus/Minus on 5/18, there have to be several underachieving players on other days to bring the trend’s overall Plus/Minus to +1.04. The 40 percent Consistency indicates that this is a boom-or-bust trend and yesterday there were only busts.
Review
I think that I just summed things up in that last paragraph: Sometimes this trend is going to lead to homers and other times it’s going to lead to zeros. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. It just means that this trend is best used for tournaments.
