Throughout the season, I am using our free Trends tool to create a custom trend, and then I am tracking the results of my matches for the week in this article. The goal is to create trends with high Plus/Minus values and share them with our readers every Friday.
Description
This week, I wanted to create a trend that yields positive results while relying ONLY on our advanced stats. There are not many places where you can find this type of advanced data, which means that there are not many DFS players who are likely to be considering this same data. As a result, if something jumps off the page to you when you’re looking at something like exit velocity, batted-ball distance, or airtime, then you can really leverage that information to your advantage.
This week, the two filters I’m looking to involve are Exit Velocity and Fly-Ball Rate. We’re taking a pitcher’s perspective here, so we’re hoping for low ratings in each field.
The filters I used to create this trend were as follows:
• 15-Day Exit Velocity no higher than 85 miles per hour
• Opponent’s Ground-Ball to Fly-Ball Rate is above 50
Results
The following screenshots are pulled from entries into FanDuel’s $5 guaranteed prize pools throughout the week.
6/6
My new trend came in especially handy on Monday. As a rookie pitcher, Michael Fulmer doesn’t have a whole lot of data yet. So what this trend allowed me to do was focus on an opponent that had been severely underperforming in recent days. You wouldn’t expect a team like the Blue Jays to meet the conditions of this trend, but the numbers don’t lie.
Fulmer was easily able to tame the slumping Blue Jays lineup en route to six shutout innings. Fulmer’s ownership was higher than I expected it would be. I thought the matchup against Toronto would have scared off the masses, but instead it looks like many DFS players chose to piggyback on Fulmer’s excellent start against the Angels five days earlier, in which he took a no-hitter bid into the later innings. I wound up on the same player, but for a very different reason.
6/7
Kyle Hendricks was a guy I mainly avoided, but I did roster him here as a match for this week’s trend. I’ve been burned by Joe Maddon’s quick hook on Hendricks in the past and I felt that the public viewed him as a safer option than he actually was. I’m saying this not to pat myself on the back (yes, I am) but rather to reinforce the idea that you can’t capture everything with a single trend. Trends — even great ones — should encourage you to look more deeply into a player’s matchup. They shouldn’t be the ONLY factors in your decision-making process.
After all that patting myself on the back, I’m also going to claim this as a win for the trend. Hendricks struck out six in five innings while allowing only two earned runs and it’s hard to fault him for getting pulled at only 81 pitches to begin the sixth inning. He did his job here: We just would have liked to have seen him work a longer shift.
6/8
Clearly, I angered the DFS gods on Tuesday, when I bragged about avoiding an expensive and highly-owned dud. On Wednesday, Drew Pomeranz happened. The pitcher I had heavy exposure to in the all-day slate both cost more and scored fewer points than Hendricks had a day before.
Again, the raw stats weren’t that bad: Five innings pitched and six strikeouts on three earned runs. But while Hendricks was the victim of a quick hook, Pomeranz brought it on himself, racking up 96 pitches through five innings.
Still, it’s hard to fault the trend here. The Braves did not hit a home run in this game nor did they score a ton of runs. But at the same time it’s hard to claim success when Pomeranz finished with a -9 Plus/Minus.
Plus/Minus and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
6/9
More than anything else, Jhoulys Chacin is a reminder that you cannot rely SOLELY on a trend. Although the Yankees were a match for this trend, a poor performance could have been anticipated for a right-handed pitcher with a shaky history facing the very lefty-heavy New York lineup in Yankee Stadium. Pitching was especially weak last night, but this was still probably a poor play.
Conclusion
I’m not really sure what to make of this week’s results. I’m always hesitant to claim bad luck in DFS because I think that is usually the easiest way out and if you don’t take the time to examine what went wrong then it’s difficult to improve as a player. Having said that, I do think that there was some bad luck this week. The only really crippling play was Chacin who, again, wouldn’t have actually been in play for purposes outside this article.
Overall, I am a believer in this trend and would recommend it in tournaments to uncover an edge where not many others are looking.
